JPM
In our opinion the most recent guidance from the Swiss FINMA
provides a greater degree of clarity on the transitional arrangements for
the legacy Swiss Coco structures and largely reduces the risk of a Reg
Par Call. Firstly, we highlight that the Swiss Tier 2 Cocos are eligible
for ‘going concern’ capital up until 2020, and which corroborates the
recent press release from UBS referred below. As a result, we would
expect that the valuations of the Tier II Cocos which have been under
pressure due to the short-term risk of a Reg Par Call should recover and
we would be buyers of the CS 5.75% €20 at 108.75/109.75 and the CS
6.5% 108.75/109.25 (Prices as at 11:46 on 23/10/2015). Our base is
that the issuers will likely undertake LME on these instruments
during the transitional period up to 2020. Additionally, FINMA has
clarified that the LT AT1 instruments will be grandfathered up until the
first call date, which may reduce the incentive which the issuers had to
undertake LME and it may be perfectly rational to leave these in place up
until first call date. Hence, any LME premium which has been built into
these instruments should most likely be reversed. We think that these
views are supported by market communication from CS and UBS, in
terms of the extent of the grandfathering and the intention to undertake
LME.