Analisi:
Venezuela default risks spike | Top News | IFRe
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Just last week, a panel organised by Cleary Gottlieb – the same law firm that advises Argentina in its legal battle against holdout investors – centred on such topics, including whether Venezuela might find it easier to default on sovereign obligations rather than on bonds issued by PDVSA.
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While all bonds issued by PDVSA require unanimity to modify the terms of interest and principal payments, the bulk of the debt issued by the sovereign contains collective action clauses allowing a 75% majority to agree to a restructuring that is binding on all holders of a particular series.
The distinction, however, might not matter much in the event of a disorderly default.
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In the meantime the market remains relatively confident that the government can find short-term financing solutions without rocking the political boat.
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At current oil price levels, the country faced a shortfall of about US$18bn for imports and debt service, which could be covered in part by one-off solutions, said Jorge Piedrahita, CEO at broker Torino Capital. These include Petrocaribe securitisations, recent agreements with China over loan terms, the reduction of imports and the sale of PDVSA’s US operations CITGO.
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Patrick Esteruelas, at sovereign analyst at emerging markets asset manager Emso, took a similar view. “The risk of Venezuela defaulting in 2015 remains manageable and very low. It is certainly below the 45% default probability implied by one-year credit default swaps. I would say it is less than half of that.”
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Report da leggere.
