pipe74
Nuovo forumer
Queste sono le info che ho io sulle reserve oro a febbraio 2014
Ultima modifica:
Titoli di Stato paesi-emergenti VENEZUELA e Petroleos de Venezuela - Cap. 1 (12 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione troppidebiti
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
Queste sono le info che ho io sulle reserve oro a febbraio 2014
gualberto
Charlie don't Surf
Ciao bentornato!
b0nD
Nuovo forumer
Tecnicamente il tuo ragionamento non fa una piega, ma strategicamente, trattandosi di un paese sovrano dovranno ragionare anche in maniera strategica, febbraio e' troppo presto X capire dove si attesta il prezzo dell'oïl. Credo non potranno prendere decisioni prima di agosto.
Ergo: secondo me le cedole di febbraio sono tranquille, se l'oil si riprende entro primavera, siamo apposto.
camaleonte
Forumer storico
Negli ultimi 3 mesi tutte le banche centrali del mondo hanno acquistato 93 ton. di oro di cui 55 la sola Banca Centrale russa. La cosa importante dell'articolo secondo me, è la possibilità di pagare attraverso oro fisico le merci importate dalla Cina e viceversa per quanto riguarda gli acquisti di quest'ultima di GAS&OIL dalla Russia.
Quest'articolo di oggi lo conferma:
Russian news: - Russia Insider
"
Russia in High-Stakes Battle Over a New Global Monetary System
Bretton Woods is disintegrating before our very eyes
Chinese - Russian move away from $ based system is real this time
Russia is moving its assets to gold in anticipation of global economic upheaval
Cheap ruble is invigorating Russian domestic production, self-sufficiency
Russia is morally prepared for a long economic war, willing to make sacrifices"
In sostanza, sia Russia che Cina, da diversi mesi, non convertono più i $ ottenuti dalla vendita delle loro merci in Tresaury ma in oro: abbiamo avuto modo di leggere che entrambi questi paesi già da qualche tempo stanno incrementando le proprie riserve di oro, la Russia stessa nei primi 9 mesi dell'anno ne ha acquistati 150 ton.
b0nD
Nuovo forumer
Semplicemente Russia e Cina vogliono depotenziare il dollar standard e, in assenza di valida alternativa condivisa (non vogliono adottare ne rublo ne yuan) utilizzano l'oro.
È' una segata.
tommy271
Forumer storico
In teoria ci dovrebbe essere una riunione OPEC a marzo ... consideriamo (se verrà fatta) le riunioni preparatorie a febbraio.
pipe74
Nuovo forumer
Direi che questa vision sulle cose mi trova molto + d'accordo.
Myskin
Forumer stoico
il problema è non c'è solo il debito estero ma che hai da fronteggiare pure un deficit di bilancio di almeno 50 miliardi...e questi premono alle casse statali come non mai in precedenza
moorecat
Nuovo forumer
Low Oil Prices Continue to Hurt Venezuela
Analysis
DECEMBER 12, 2014 | 10:00 GMT Print Text Size
Low Oil Prices Continue to Hurt Venezuela
The Venezuelan bolivar currency is presented next to the U.S. dollar (JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images)
Summary
The Venezuelan economy continues its downward spiral as 2015 approaches. Faced with rising domestic expenses that it can no longer meet through dollar income from oil exports alone, Caracas has accelerated measures to increase its money supply since 2012. The central bank has also printed more bolivars to keep up with spending obligations. This expansion of the monetary supply has spurred inflation, which was already exacerbated by government foreign exchange mechanisms and smuggling to Colombia, making food and goods less available to consumers in Venezuela. The decline in global oil prices that began in September has compounded these troubles.
Analysis
Venezuela's government has traditionally distributed foreign currency in its economy through the Sicad I and the Sicad II mechanisms. Before August, the Sicad I auctioned about $880 million per month and Sicad II disbursed around $50 million per day. The distributions were not large enough to meet the country's needs though, and the country's demand for U.S. dollars continued to grow.
The global decline in oil prices has only increased Venezuela's troubles, further damaging the country's already struggling public finances. The price of the Venezuelan crude oil basket plummeted from a high of about $100 per barrel in June to around $60 per barrel in the second week of December. Likely the result of reduced cash flow, the Sicad I has not held an auction since Oct. 15, and the Sicad II is currently disbursing around $20 million daily.
The sharpest effect of this dollar shortage has been on the value of Venezuela's national currency. The black market value of the dollar has skyrocketed to almost 180 bolivars per dollar as dollar-hungry Venezuelans attempt to buy foreign currency. Increasing numbers of buyers have apparently resorted to the black market. The shortage of the bolivar has rapidly driven up inflation in recent months, making it increasingly difficult for businesses to acquire dollars and budget for future operations.
The current situation puts the Venezuelan government in a difficult financial position. Caracas will have to find a way to decrease expenditures to retain as much cash as it can, likely resulting in a cut to domestic subsidies. The government will also have to increase the revenue it receives from sales of oil abroad, and cutbacks in shipments of crude oil and petroleum products to Petrocaribe and Cuba are also plausible. As a last resort, the government could choose to gradually raise the price of fuel at home.
Some of the options come with significant costs. A fuel price increase or a cut in subsidies could spark protests or resistance from public officials who illegally sell gasoline abroad. On the other hand, inaction is also not an option for the government. Leaving the country's shortages and inflation to fester could spark wider public unrest, and inaction could also lead to electoral defeat for the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela in the 2015 legislative elections. Since the unity of the party depends on its ability to win elections, a loss could accelerate divisions between the party's elites.
Consequently, Caracas will continue making increasingly desperate adjustments to its economic policy throughout 2015, all carried out in the hopes of forestalling social unrest or eventual decisions that could result in regime change. The government could move to devalue the bolivar or cut public spending in 2015. State oil company Petroleos de Venezuela and the Venezuelan government will also likely continue their attempts to restructure $12.5 billion in debt payments that are due in 2016 and 2017 with the goal of reducing its debt burden and likelihood of default. Measures such as selling large sums of gold from the central bank reserves or even defaulting on foreign creditors to continue satisfying domestic constituents would indicate increasing desperation from the government.
Ultimately, the future of the Venezuelan economy, and therefore the government's stability, will depend on oil prices. A prolonged period of low global oil prices will increase political pressure on the Venezuelan government, and will in turn raise the likelihood of social unrest or internal challenges to President Nicolas Maduro in 2015.
Read more: Low Oil Prices Continue to Hurt Venezuela | Stratfor
Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook
Analysis
DECEMBER 12, 2014 | 10:00 GMT Print Text Size
Low Oil Prices Continue to Hurt Venezuela
The Venezuelan bolivar currency is presented next to the U.S. dollar (JUAN BARRETO/AFP/Getty Images)
Summary
The Venezuelan economy continues its downward spiral as 2015 approaches. Faced with rising domestic expenses that it can no longer meet through dollar income from oil exports alone, Caracas has accelerated measures to increase its money supply since 2012. The central bank has also printed more bolivars to keep up with spending obligations. This expansion of the monetary supply has spurred inflation, which was already exacerbated by government foreign exchange mechanisms and smuggling to Colombia, making food and goods less available to consumers in Venezuela. The decline in global oil prices that began in September has compounded these troubles.
Analysis
Venezuela's government has traditionally distributed foreign currency in its economy through the Sicad I and the Sicad II mechanisms. Before August, the Sicad I auctioned about $880 million per month and Sicad II disbursed around $50 million per day. The distributions were not large enough to meet the country's needs though, and the country's demand for U.S. dollars continued to grow.
The global decline in oil prices has only increased Venezuela's troubles, further damaging the country's already struggling public finances. The price of the Venezuelan crude oil basket plummeted from a high of about $100 per barrel in June to around $60 per barrel in the second week of December. Likely the result of reduced cash flow, the Sicad I has not held an auction since Oct. 15, and the Sicad II is currently disbursing around $20 million daily.
The sharpest effect of this dollar shortage has been on the value of Venezuela's national currency. The black market value of the dollar has skyrocketed to almost 180 bolivars per dollar as dollar-hungry Venezuelans attempt to buy foreign currency. Increasing numbers of buyers have apparently resorted to the black market. The shortage of the bolivar has rapidly driven up inflation in recent months, making it increasingly difficult for businesses to acquire dollars and budget for future operations.
The current situation puts the Venezuelan government in a difficult financial position. Caracas will have to find a way to decrease expenditures to retain as much cash as it can, likely resulting in a cut to domestic subsidies. The government will also have to increase the revenue it receives from sales of oil abroad, and cutbacks in shipments of crude oil and petroleum products to Petrocaribe and Cuba are also plausible. As a last resort, the government could choose to gradually raise the price of fuel at home.
Some of the options come with significant costs. A fuel price increase or a cut in subsidies could spark protests or resistance from public officials who illegally sell gasoline abroad. On the other hand, inaction is also not an option for the government. Leaving the country's shortages and inflation to fester could spark wider public unrest, and inaction could also lead to electoral defeat for the ruling United Socialist Party of Venezuela in the 2015 legislative elections. Since the unity of the party depends on its ability to win elections, a loss could accelerate divisions between the party's elites.
Consequently, Caracas will continue making increasingly desperate adjustments to its economic policy throughout 2015, all carried out in the hopes of forestalling social unrest or eventual decisions that could result in regime change. The government could move to devalue the bolivar or cut public spending in 2015. State oil company Petroleos de Venezuela and the Venezuelan government will also likely continue their attempts to restructure $12.5 billion in debt payments that are due in 2016 and 2017 with the goal of reducing its debt burden and likelihood of default. Measures such as selling large sums of gold from the central bank reserves or even defaulting on foreign creditors to continue satisfying domestic constituents would indicate increasing desperation from the government.
Ultimately, the future of the Venezuelan economy, and therefore the government's stability, will depend on oil prices. A prolonged period of low global oil prices will increase political pressure on the Venezuelan government, and will in turn raise the likelihood of social unrest or internal challenges to President Nicolas Maduro in 2015.
Read more: Low Oil Prices Continue to Hurt Venezuela | Stratfor
Follow us: @stratfor on Twitter | Stratfor on Facebook
- Stato