i dati OPEC sono migliori di quanto mi aspettassi
i punti salienti del sunto, ho allegato il documento in calce. in settimana dovrebbe arrivare anche il drilling report dell'EIA, molto importante.
World Oil Supply
Non-OPEC oil supply growth in 2014 has been revised up slightly to 1.99 mb/d. This
revision was mostly driven by higher output in OECD, Brazil, Kazakhstan and China in
4Q14, partially offset by downward revisions from Azerbaijan, Other Asia Pacific, Australia
and Mexico. In 2015, non-OPEC oil supply is projected to grow by 0.85 mb/d, down
0.42 mb/d from the previous assessment. OPEC NGLs are forecast to grow by 0.20 mb/d
to 6.03 mb/d in 2015. In January, OPEC crude production decreased by 53 tb/d to average
30.15 mb/d, according to secondary sources.
Balance of Supply and Demand
Demand for OPEC crude is estimated at 29.1 mb/d in 2014, unchanged from the last
report. In 2015, required OPEC crude is projected at 29.2 mb/d, following an upward
adjustment of 0.4 mb/d.
China
In December 2014, Chinese oil demand continued its high pace of growth, increasing
by 0.66 mb/d or more than 5% y-o-y. 2014 average growth for China stands at around
0.39 mb/d or nearly 4%. In December, oil demand growth was determined by rising
gasoline, LPG and diesel requirements while fuel oil consumption decreased. Gasoline
demand moved in line with rising car sales in December. According to statistics and
analysis from the China Association of Automobile Manufacturers (CAAM), Chinese
automobile sales were 16% higher y-o-y. 2014 also highlighted significant increases in
car sales with total units sold reaching 23 million units, up by 7% y-o-y compared with
the 14% growth rate of 2013. In December, gasoline consumption grew by more than
0.30 mb/d or 13% compared with the same month a year earlier, yet this growth was
capped by an increase in consumption taxes as Chinese authorities continued to raise
tax levels as a means of limiting air pollution.
[...]
The 2015 outlook is relatively in line with last month’s MOMR with equal upward
potential/downward risks; the downside risks are focused on the likelihood of slower
economic activities as well as the implementation of transportation fuel consumption
measures geared towards curbing demand. The solid petrochemical sector and
expansions in refining capacity, on the other hand, could be considered as elements
supporting upward potential to 2015 oil demand estimates.
For 2014, Chinese oil demand is anticipated to grow by 0.39 mb/d, while oil demand
in 2015 is projected to increase by 0.31 mb/d.
USA
US liquid production is anticipated to average 13.64 mb/d in 2015, indicating growth of
0.82 mb/d y-o-y, which is 130 tb/d less than the previous MOMR figure. Total tight
crude output from US shale plays is expected to grow by 0.59 mb/d to average
4.46 mb/d in 2015. Unconventional NGLs will only increase by 50 tb/d, while most
producers will favour moving their drilling rigs to dry gas production areas. Oil
production from the Gulf of Mexico is expected to grow by 0.18 mb/d.
[...]
On a quarterly basis, the US liquids supply in 2015 is expected to average 13.60 mb/d,
13.70 mb/d, 13.65 mb/d and 13.62 mb/d, respectively.
http://www.opec.org/opec_web/static...downloads/publications/MOMR_February_2015.pdf