Venezuela oil rut makes dollars even more scarce
Lost revenue is adding to concern over Venezuela’s creditworthiness. The slump in Venezuelan oil prices is depriving the nation of its main source of revenue and threatening bondholders already suffering the worst losses in emerging markets. Average prices of Venezuelan crude exports, responsible for 95% of the nation’s foreign currency earnings, fell to a 16-month low this month and ended last week at U$D 93.98 a barrel. Each U$D 1 dollar decline in a barrel of oil costs Venezuela about U$D 700 million per year. Venezuela’s debt securities have declined 7% this month as borrowing costs touched a 22-month high of 14.56%, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. “With this reduction in oil income, the government won’t be able to maintain spending levels,” says Barclays Plc analyst Alejandro Grisanti. The difference between oil prices this year and last year has so far reduced income by $3 billion, Grisanti said. “Oil prices in the low $90s would leave Venezuela with a current account deficit,” says Ben Ramsey, an economist at JPMorgan Chase & Co. The New York-based bank cut its recommendation on Venezuela bonds to neutral from overweight in a report dated Nov. 12. The consequences of lower oil prices could include devaluation, spending cuts and tighter monetary policy, “raising risks of a social and political backlash,” according to Ramsey. The extra compensation that investors demand to own Venezuelan bonds instead of U.S. Treasuries has risen to 11.52 percentage points this month, the highest in emerging markets, according to JPMorgan. “Venezuela’s oil basket is declining primarily due to declines in heavy oil prices,” says Ruth Krivoy, an oil analyst from Sintesis Financiera, the consultant firm for GlobalSource Partners. TransCanada Corp.’s proposed Keystone XL pipeline may displace Venezuelan crude, pushing prices even lower, because the project would allow U.S. refineries to source more Canadian oil, says Roger Tissot, a consultant in British Columbia. NuStar Energy LP on Nov. 8 canceled a long-term agreement with PDVSA for 30,000 barrels a day of crude. “If the Canadians go ahead with the Keystone Pipeline to export heavy oil from Canada to the U.S. Gulf Coast, that would cut off that little window of opportunity that is left for Venezuela,”