Titoli di Stato paesi-emergenti VENEZUELA e Petroleos de Venezuela - Cap. 1 (28 lettori)
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Venezuela to Devalue Bolivar by Late March, Survey Says
By Anatoly Kurmanaev Dec 17, 2013 5:30 AM GMT+0100
Venezuela will make the biggest devaluation of its currency since 2010 in the first quarter of next year in an effort to boost revenue and narrow the budget gap, according to a survey of analysts.
Latin America’s largest crude producer will weaken the official bolivar rate 39 percent to 10.3 per dollar, boosting local currency revenue from each dollar of oil exports, according to the median estimate of 14 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg Dec. 11-13. A record gap between the official and black market rate has fueled the world’s fastest inflation.
Venezuela devalued the bolivar 32 percent in February and yesterday weakened the currency on an alternative auction system, as a June survey predicted. Oil investments and tourist dollars will enter the country at the auction rate, which the government has not made public, instead of the official rate of 6.3 bolivars per dollar, Oil Minister and Economy Vice President Rafael Ramirez said yesterday.
“Importing everything apart from food and medicine at the lower rate basically amounts to a stealth devaluation,” Alberto Ramos, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. chief Latin American economist, said by phone from New York yesterday. “This is a necessary adjustment they had to make given the unsustainable demand for dollars at the official rate.”
A decade of currency controls has made dollars increasingly scarce in Venezuela, as foreign reserves fell to a nine year-low this month. The restricted supply of dollars to companies has led to shortages of imported goods ranging from tires to beef and pushed the annual inflation rate to 54 percent in October.
Late President Hugo Chavez weakened the currency seven times in the last 10 years before dying of cancer in March, according to Caracas-based consultancy Ecoanalitica.
‘Macroeconomic Imbalances’
Moody’s Investors Service yesterday downgraded Venezuela by two levels to a Caa1 rating from B2 with a negative outlook, saying key drivers for the action are “increasingly unsustainable macroeconomic imbalances and materially higher risk of an economic and financial collapse.”
Standard & Poor’s on Dec. 13 cut Venezuela by one level to B- and gave it a negative outlook on concern that “erratic” economic policies will boost the government’s oil dependence and weaken its ability to manage shocks as foreign reserves decline.
The yield on the Venezuelan government’s benchmark 9.25 percent dollar bonds due in 2027 fell 37 basis points, or 0.37 percentage point, to 12.25 percent in New York yesterday, the biggest drop since Nov. 22, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Auctions, Oil
The government will auction more than $5 billion through the secondary auction system known as Sicad in 2014, compared to about $1.3 billion sold since its start in March, Ramirez told reporters. The main Cadivi currency system, which allocates dollars at the official rate, distributed $33 billion in the first nine months of this year.
“Sicad will evolve into a definitive mechanism for the control and management of our foreign currency,” Ramirez said.
Under the weekly Sicad auctions, the government has been selling dollars for an estimated 11 to 12 bolivars, or nearly double the official rate, Tamara Herrera, chief economist at Caracas-based financial research firm Sintesis Financiera, said by phone.
The bolivar has fallen 73 percent this year in black market trading to about 64 per dollar, according to dolartoday.com, a website that tracks the rate on the Colombian border.
Allowing energy companies to book expenses at the lower auction rate will reduce the cost of investing in Venezuela, which gets 96 percent of its dollars from oil sales, Francisco Rodriguez, chief Andean economist at Bank of America Corp., said by phone.
Incentives, Flexibility
“Anything that reduces the cost of operation should increase the incentives for investment,” he said from New York yesterday.
Chavez’s United Socialist Party won the majority of votes and cities in the local elections Dec. 8, giving his successors political confidence to implement unpopular measures such as devaluation, Daniel Kerner, analyst at Eurasia Group political consultancy in Buenos Aires, wrote in an e-mailed note to clients yesterday.
Devaluation would help narrow the budget gap by giving government more bolivars for oil exports. The budget deficit will reach 5.6 percent of gross domestic product this year, compared to a surplus in 2006, according to the median estimate of 11 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
“The government is betting that a devaluation that still gives it control over the allocation of dollars, but provides a bit more flexibility and some adjustment on the fiscal fronts would help stabilize the economy,” Kerner said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Anatoly Kurmanaev in Caracas at [email protected]
By Anatoly Kurmanaev Dec 17, 2013 5:30 AM GMT+0100
Venezuela will make the biggest devaluation of its currency since 2010 in the first quarter of next year in an effort to boost revenue and narrow the budget gap, according to a survey of analysts.
Latin America’s largest crude producer will weaken the official bolivar rate 39 percent to 10.3 per dollar, boosting local currency revenue from each dollar of oil exports, according to the median estimate of 14 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg Dec. 11-13. A record gap between the official and black market rate has fueled the world’s fastest inflation.
Venezuela devalued the bolivar 32 percent in February and yesterday weakened the currency on an alternative auction system, as a June survey predicted. Oil investments and tourist dollars will enter the country at the auction rate, which the government has not made public, instead of the official rate of 6.3 bolivars per dollar, Oil Minister and Economy Vice President Rafael Ramirez said yesterday.
“Importing everything apart from food and medicine at the lower rate basically amounts to a stealth devaluation,” Alberto Ramos, Goldman Sachs Group Inc. chief Latin American economist, said by phone from New York yesterday. “This is a necessary adjustment they had to make given the unsustainable demand for dollars at the official rate.”
A decade of currency controls has made dollars increasingly scarce in Venezuela, as foreign reserves fell to a nine year-low this month. The restricted supply of dollars to companies has led to shortages of imported goods ranging from tires to beef and pushed the annual inflation rate to 54 percent in October.
Late President Hugo Chavez weakened the currency seven times in the last 10 years before dying of cancer in March, according to Caracas-based consultancy Ecoanalitica.
‘Macroeconomic Imbalances’
Moody’s Investors Service yesterday downgraded Venezuela by two levels to a Caa1 rating from B2 with a negative outlook, saying key drivers for the action are “increasingly unsustainable macroeconomic imbalances and materially higher risk of an economic and financial collapse.”
Standard & Poor’s on Dec. 13 cut Venezuela by one level to B- and gave it a negative outlook on concern that “erratic” economic policies will boost the government’s oil dependence and weaken its ability to manage shocks as foreign reserves decline.
The yield on the Venezuelan government’s benchmark 9.25 percent dollar bonds due in 2027 fell 37 basis points, or 0.37 percentage point, to 12.25 percent in New York yesterday, the biggest drop since Nov. 22, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.
Auctions, Oil
The government will auction more than $5 billion through the secondary auction system known as Sicad in 2014, compared to about $1.3 billion sold since its start in March, Ramirez told reporters. The main Cadivi currency system, which allocates dollars at the official rate, distributed $33 billion in the first nine months of this year.
“Sicad will evolve into a definitive mechanism for the control and management of our foreign currency,” Ramirez said.
Under the weekly Sicad auctions, the government has been selling dollars for an estimated 11 to 12 bolivars, or nearly double the official rate, Tamara Herrera, chief economist at Caracas-based financial research firm Sintesis Financiera, said by phone.
The bolivar has fallen 73 percent this year in black market trading to about 64 per dollar, according to dolartoday.com, a website that tracks the rate on the Colombian border.
Allowing energy companies to book expenses at the lower auction rate will reduce the cost of investing in Venezuela, which gets 96 percent of its dollars from oil sales, Francisco Rodriguez, chief Andean economist at Bank of America Corp., said by phone.
Incentives, Flexibility
“Anything that reduces the cost of operation should increase the incentives for investment,” he said from New York yesterday.
Chavez’s United Socialist Party won the majority of votes and cities in the local elections Dec. 8, giving his successors political confidence to implement unpopular measures such as devaluation, Daniel Kerner, analyst at Eurasia Group political consultancy in Buenos Aires, wrote in an e-mailed note to clients yesterday.
Devaluation would help narrow the budget gap by giving government more bolivars for oil exports. The budget deficit will reach 5.6 percent of gross domestic product this year, compared to a surplus in 2006, according to the median estimate of 11 economists surveyed by Bloomberg.
“The government is betting that a devaluation that still gives it control over the allocation of dollars, but provides a bit more flexibility and some adjustment on the fiscal fronts would help stabilize the economy,” Kerner said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Anatoly Kurmanaev in Caracas at [email protected]
tommy271
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Indubbiamente.
tommy271
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Io attendo i miei target.
tommy271
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Venezuela, Moody's taglia rating, cita rischi di collasso economico
martedì 17 dicembre 2013 11:22
(Reuters) - L'agenzia di rating Moody's ha tagliato di due gradini il merito di credito del Venezuela, abbassandolo a 'Caa1' da 'B2', mantenendo un outlook negativo e citando i crescenti rischi di un collasso economico e finanziario.
"Il downgrade riflette l'opinione di Moody's che il Venezuela debba fronteggiare squilibri macroeconomici crescentemente insostenibili, tra cui un'inflazione alla stelle e un profondo deprezzamento del tasso di cambio parallelo", scrive l'agenzia.
Per il paese sudamericano, uno dei principali produttori di petrolio, si tratta del secondo downgrade in pochi giorni, dopo quello di Standard & Poor's, che ha motivato la sua decisione con la "radicalizzazione" della politica economica e il declino delle riserve internazionali.
Il mese scorso il presidente venezuelano Nicolas Maduro ha adottato una serie di misure che hanno spaventato gli investitori, tra cui l'obbligo per i commercianti di tagliare i prezzi delle merci, lanciando "un'offensiva economica" per calmierare un tasso d'inflazione annuo al 54%.
Una mossa che secondo alcuni osservatori rischia di provocare una penuria nei rifornimenti.
"Il netto incremento dei rendimenti sovrani del Venezuela ad oltre il 15% ai primi di dicembre da meno del 10% di metà maggio suggerisce che la capacità del Paese di accedere ai mercati finanziari si è notevolmente ridotta", aggiunge Moody's.
Per l'agenzia l'outlook negativo riflette l'aspettativa che le condizioni continuino a deterioriarsi.
martedì 17 dicembre 2013 11:22
(Reuters) - L'agenzia di rating Moody's ha tagliato di due gradini il merito di credito del Venezuela, abbassandolo a 'Caa1' da 'B2', mantenendo un outlook negativo e citando i crescenti rischi di un collasso economico e finanziario.
"Il downgrade riflette l'opinione di Moody's che il Venezuela debba fronteggiare squilibri macroeconomici crescentemente insostenibili, tra cui un'inflazione alla stelle e un profondo deprezzamento del tasso di cambio parallelo", scrive l'agenzia.
Per il paese sudamericano, uno dei principali produttori di petrolio, si tratta del secondo downgrade in pochi giorni, dopo quello di Standard & Poor's, che ha motivato la sua decisione con la "radicalizzazione" della politica economica e il declino delle riserve internazionali.
Il mese scorso il presidente venezuelano Nicolas Maduro ha adottato una serie di misure che hanno spaventato gli investitori, tra cui l'obbligo per i commercianti di tagliare i prezzi delle merci, lanciando "un'offensiva economica" per calmierare un tasso d'inflazione annuo al 54%.
Una mossa che secondo alcuni osservatori rischia di provocare una penuria nei rifornimenti.
"Il netto incremento dei rendimenti sovrani del Venezuela ad oltre il 15% ai primi di dicembre da meno del 10% di metà maggio suggerisce che la capacità del Paese di accedere ai mercati finanziari si è notevolmente ridotta", aggiunge Moody's.
Per l'agenzia l'outlook negativo riflette l'aspettativa che le condizioni continuino a deterioriarsi.
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