Rating Action: Moody's downgrades ratings of PDVSA and CITGO Petroleum The document has been translated in other languages
Global Credit Research - 18 Dec 2013
New York, December 18, 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service downgraded the foreign currency bond rating and global local currency rating of Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) to Caa1 from B2 and B1, respectively, and maintained a negative outlook on the ratings. Moody's also downgraded CITGO Petroleum Corporation's Corporate Family Rating to B1 from Ba2; its Probability of Default rating to B1-PD from Ba2-PD; and its senior secured ratings on term loans, notes and industrial revenue bonds to B1, LGD3-43% from Ba2, LGD3-41%. Moody's also assigned a rating of Ba3, LGD3-30% to CITGO's senior secured bank credit facility. The rating outlook for CITGO is negative. CITGO is PDVSA's wholly-owned US-based refining subsidiary.
The rating actions follow Moody's downgrade on December 16, 2013 of the Venezuelan government's foreign currency and local currency bond ratings to Caa1, from B2 and B1, also with a negative outlook. The sovereign rating action reflects concerns over the Venezuela's severe economic stress in the post-Chávez era, reflected in rising economic imbalances. These imbalances are exacerbated by government policies, which have resulted in high inflation, a huge disconnect between official and parallel market foreign currency exchange rates, a scarcity of many essential goods and services, and deterioration in the country's external accounts and foreign currency reserves.
RATINGS RATIONALE
In downgrading PDVSA's ratings to equal those of the government, Moody's acknowledges the state oil company's substantial oil and gas resources, among the largest in the world, and that the company to date has never defaulted on its debt obligations. In addition, PDVSA's on-balance-sheet debt obligations remained relatively unchanged at $39.3 billion as of its latest June 30, 2013 interim financial statements.
However, PDVSA's ratings reflect it its key role as the state oil company and the government's control over PDVSA's finances and access to foreign currency. PDVSA is a driver of Venezuela's economy, a key source of the government's revenues and the country's primary source of foreign exchange. The government approves and controls PDVSA's budget and has steeply increased its transfer payments over the past few years in the form of royalties, social payments and dividends to support government spending and social programs, a trend that accelerated in the run-up to the presidential election in 2012. At the same time, PDVSA is borrowing heavily from the Central Bank of Venezuela, with drawings of equivalent $40 billion as of the end of November 2013, according to bank reports.
Under a scenario of fiscal and economic deterioration in Venezuela in the post- Chávez era, the government could become even more dependent on PDVSA, which would further constrain the state oil company's capital investments and increase an already rising debt burden.
As a government-related issuer, PDVSA's ratings reflect a high level of imputed government support and default correlation between the two entities. Any future negative ratings action affecting the government's ratings, which have a negative outlook, would also be likely to result in a downgrade of PDVSA's ratings as well.
The downgrade of CITGO Petroleum's ratings with a negative outlook primarily reflects heightened risk associated with PDVSA's ownership and financial stress. While CITGO's assets are located in the US and its credit agreements provide certain protections to lenders, including limitations on dividends, it lacks an independent board, with its members and senior management appointed by PDVSA. Meanwhile, the refineries continue to generate good financial results, fund capital spending internally, and maintain a solid liquidity profile, including cash and committed bank facilities.
The principal methodology used in this rating was the Global Integrated Oil & Gas Industry published in November 2009 and Global Refining and Marketing Rating Methodology published in December 2009. Other methodologies used include Loss Given Default for Speculative-Grade Non-Financial Companies in the U.S., Canada and EMEA published in June 2009; and the Government-Related Issuers methodology published in July 2010. Please see the Credit Policy page on
www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.