Titoli di Stato paesi-emergenti VENEZUELA e Petroleos de Venezuela - Cap. 1 (15 lettori)

probabilità recovery

  • 1

    Votes: 21 48,8%
  • 100

    Votes: 6 14,0%
  • 50

    Votes: 16 37,2%

  • Total voters
    43
Stato
Chiusa ad ulteriori risposte.

fabriziof

Forumer storico
Venezuela, Moody's taglia rating, cita rischi di collasso economico

martedì 17 dicembre 2013 11:22







(Reuters) - L'agenzia di rating Moody's ha tagliato di due gradini il merito di credito del Venezuela, abbassandolo a 'Caa1' da 'B2', mantenendo un outlook negativo e citando i crescenti rischi di un collasso economico e finanziario.

"Il downgrade riflette l'opinione di Moody's che il Venezuela debba fronteggiare squilibri macroeconomici crescentemente insostenibili, tra cui un'inflazione alla stelle e un profondo deprezzamento del tasso di cambio parallelo", scrive l'agenzia.

Per il paese sudamericano, uno dei principali produttori di petrolio, si tratta del secondo downgrade in pochi giorni, dopo quello di Standard & Poor's, che ha motivato la sua decisione con la "radicalizzazione" della politica economica e il declino delle riserve internazionali.

Il mese scorso il presidente venezuelano Nicolas Maduro ha adottato una serie di misure che hanno spaventato gli investitori, tra cui l'obbligo per i commercianti di tagliare i prezzi delle merci, lanciando "un'offensiva economica" per calmierare un tasso d'inflazione annuo al 54%.

Una mossa che secondo alcuni osservatori rischia di provocare una penuria nei rifornimenti.

"Il netto incremento dei rendimenti sovrani del Venezuela ad oltre il 15% ai primi di dicembre da meno del 10% di metà maggio suggerisce che la capacità del Paese di accedere ai mercati finanziari si è notevolmente ridotta", aggiunge Moody's.

Per l'agenzia l'outlook negativo riflette l'aspettativa che le condizioni continuino a deterioriarsi.

Letto in originale sul sito di moodys.breve ma piuttosto impressionante,anche per me che sul venezuela negli anni ne ho lette di cotte e di crude.della serie :noi ve l'avevamo detto.
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Letto in originale sul sito di moodys.breve ma piuttosto impressionante,anche per me che sul venezuela negli anni ne ho lette di cotte e di crude.della serie :noi ve l'avevamo detto.

C'è però un bell'articolo di Bloomberg (sull'argomento) postato sul thread dei "Petroleos" meno negativo ... si può iniziare a svalutare il bolivar, la situazione sembra meno disperata di quel che appaia.
 

pier87

GBP uber alles
però se posso segnalare un dato positivo in questa valle di lacrime, la produzione industriale del venezuela è in crescita dello 0,8%, molto meglio della previsione di un -4,7% e in controtendenza con la valutazione del mese precedente che era del -1,7%
 

tradingpat

Forumer attivo
Perlomeno si è capito il motivo dell'ultimo ribasso (arrivato quasi a 70).............
Certo che se speriamo di fare affari affidandoci alle notizie che ci rifilano (dopo settimane che i grossi le sanno)............................. stiamo proprio a posto
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Venezuela authorizes new sectors to sell US dollars through forex system

The Foreign Exchange Administration Commission (Cadivi) will give way to a new system to sell US dollars at VEB 6.30



VÍCTOR SALMERÓN | EL UNIVERSAL
Tuesday December 17, 2013 11:36 AM



Venezuela continues to redesign its foreign exchange system. Authorities have widened the scope of the Ancillary Foreign Currency Administration System (Sicad), while the Foreign Currency Administration Commission is giving way to a new method for US dollar sales at the official forex rate of VEB 6.30.

On Monday, Economy Vice-President Rafael Ramírez explained oil companies –including state-owned Petróleos de Venezuela (Pdvsa) and its foreign partners– requiring exchanging US dollars into bolivars for the purpose of boosting oil production may sell US dollars through Sicad, as well as tourists and gold miners.

According to projections, oil companies, which have to pay in bolivars for pipes, labor, and construction as part of their investments, are likely to sell via Sicad some USD 6 billion in 2014. Ramírez commented that Sicad already has USD 1 billion from Pdvsa and its partners.

The official added that Sicad will continue operating in 2014 at the current pace of USD 100 million weekly. "As much as USD 5 billion will be sold by the public sector and we would like to expand it by including other sectors.

The official rate

The Venezuelan government is willing to continue selling US dollars at VEB 6.30 to priority sectors.

"Under our classification, US dollars at VEB 6.30 per dollar will be sold to firms in the areas of food, health, drugs, technology, education, capital goods and other similar areas. Anyway, we are going to set some standards that will be announced to the country," Ramírez remarked.

The economy vice-president stressed that next year authorities would no longer sell US dollars upon general approval but based on a strict budget and based on a new importers registry, which will help remove dummy corporations from the system.

Translated by Jhean Cabrera

 

tommy271

Forumer storico
Maduro estudia una subida del precio de la gasolina de un 2.600 por ciento

S.C.
miércoles, 18/12/13 - 10:10



El ministro Rafel Ramírez anunció que Petróleos de Venezuela discute la posibilidad de "recuperar los costos de producción" que oscilan entre 2 y 2,7 bolívares por litro.

Si ahora se está pagando el litro de 95 octanos a 0,097 bolívares, su precio podría subir en torno al 2.600 por ciento.




Venezuela dejará del ser el país en el que la gasolina es más barato que un caramelo. El ministro de Petróleo de Venezuela, Rafael Ramírez anunció que en Petróleos de Venezuela discute la posibilidad de "recuperar los costos de producción" que oscilan entre 2 y 2,7 bolívares por litro (entre 30 y 45 centavos de dólar) por litro.

Es decir, que si ahora se está pagando el litro a 0,097 bolívares si aplicamo la subida, su preció aumentaría en un 2.600 por ciento.

"Tenemos que dar una discusión nacional de si ha llegado el momento o no de cobrar la gasolina. En este país no se paga por gasolina, Petróleos de Venezuela aga para que echen gasolina", afirmó en rueda de prensa Ramírez, también vicepresidente del área económica.
Con estas palabras, se pone en marcha el debate sobre un posible aumento de la gasolina, tema tabú en Venezuela.

Su precio permanece congelado desde hace más de 20 años y en 1989, los rumores sobre el aumento de su precio, provocó unas protestas conocidas como el "Caracazo”.


El aumento de la gasolina en Venezuela provocó unas revueltas en los 90


El propio viceministro, Ramírez, ya ha subrayado que el posible alza en las gasolinas es un tema peliagudo y que casi nunca se discute, sin embargo, “creo que ya es el momento”, señala. "Venezuela es el país del mundo entero con la gasolina más barata, tenemos un récord que no es para nada un tema de orgullo o satisfacción Ni siquiera Arabia Saudita que tiene un nivel de ingreso tan alto, tiene un precio de gasolina como nosotros. No tiene sentido alguno", afirmó.

Según Ramírez, el subsidio a los combustibles genera "una pérdida directa de 12.592 millones de dólares al año".

"Nosotros vamos a pérdida, casi nunca lo discutimos, creo que es el momento", agregó.

Además los costos de producción superan entre 28 y 50 veces el precio de venta de la gasolina y el diesel, en un mercado que consume el equivalente de unos 700.000 barriles diarios de combustibles.
 
Ultima modifica:

tommy271

Forumer storico
Analisi Tecnica EUR / USD - 19.12

Dimitris Kantzelis,
DailyFX Mercato Analyst



Giovedi, 19 December, il 2013 - 09:25



dailyfx_analysis_20131219chart02.bmp



EUR / USD: La coppia è sotto pressione, passa sotto il 1.3700 e ritorna alla linea di tendenza passando da cui cercare il supporto appena sopra la 1.3620, che è un importante punto di snodo. Rottura di sotto di questi livelli e si aspettano il supporto 1.3550 e 1.3500.
 

gionmorg

low cost high value
Membro dello Staff
Rating Action: Moody's downgrades ratings of PDVSA and CITGO Petroleum The document has been translated in other languages
Global Credit Research - 18 Dec 2013
New York, December 18, 2013 -- Moody's Investors Service downgraded the foreign currency bond rating and global local currency rating of Petróleos de Venezuela (PDVSA) to Caa1 from B2 and B1, respectively, and maintained a negative outlook on the ratings. Moody's also downgraded CITGO Petroleum Corporation's Corporate Family Rating to B1 from Ba2; its Probability of Default rating to B1-PD from Ba2-PD; and its senior secured ratings on term loans, notes and industrial revenue bonds to B1, LGD3-43% from Ba2, LGD3-41%. Moody's also assigned a rating of Ba3, LGD3-30% to CITGO's senior secured bank credit facility. The rating outlook for CITGO is negative. CITGO is PDVSA's wholly-owned US-based refining subsidiary.

The rating actions follow Moody's downgrade on December 16, 2013 of the Venezuelan government's foreign currency and local currency bond ratings to Caa1, from B2 and B1, also with a negative outlook. The sovereign rating action reflects concerns over the Venezuela's severe economic stress in the post-Chávez era, reflected in rising economic imbalances. These imbalances are exacerbated by government policies, which have resulted in high inflation, a huge disconnect between official and parallel market foreign currency exchange rates, a scarcity of many essential goods and services, and deterioration in the country's external accounts and foreign currency reserves.

RATINGS RATIONALE

In downgrading PDVSA's ratings to equal those of the government, Moody's acknowledges the state oil company's substantial oil and gas resources, among the largest in the world, and that the company to date has never defaulted on its debt obligations. In addition, PDVSA's on-balance-sheet debt obligations remained relatively unchanged at $39.3 billion as of its latest June 30, 2013 interim financial statements.

However, PDVSA's ratings reflect it its key role as the state oil company and the government's control over PDVSA's finances and access to foreign currency. PDVSA is a driver of Venezuela's economy, a key source of the government's revenues and the country's primary source of foreign exchange. The government approves and controls PDVSA's budget and has steeply increased its transfer payments over the past few years in the form of royalties, social payments and dividends to support government spending and social programs, a trend that accelerated in the run-up to the presidential election in 2012. At the same time, PDVSA is borrowing heavily from the Central Bank of Venezuela, with drawings of equivalent $40 billion as of the end of November 2013, according to bank reports.

Under a scenario of fiscal and economic deterioration in Venezuela in the post- Chávez era, the government could become even more dependent on PDVSA, which would further constrain the state oil company's capital investments and increase an already rising debt burden.

As a government-related issuer, PDVSA's ratings reflect a high level of imputed government support and default correlation between the two entities. Any future negative ratings action affecting the government's ratings, which have a negative outlook, would also be likely to result in a downgrade of PDVSA's ratings as well.

The downgrade of CITGO Petroleum's ratings with a negative outlook primarily reflects heightened risk associated with PDVSA's ownership and financial stress. While CITGO's assets are located in the US and its credit agreements provide certain protections to lenders, including limitations on dividends, it lacks an independent board, with its members and senior management appointed by PDVSA. Meanwhile, the refineries continue to generate good financial results, fund capital spending internally, and maintain a solid liquidity profile, including cash and committed bank facilities.

The principal methodology used in this rating was the Global Integrated Oil & Gas Industry published in November 2009 and Global Refining and Marketing Rating Methodology published in December 2009. Other methodologies used include Loss Given Default for Speculative-Grade Non-Financial Companies in the U.S., Canada and EMEA published in June 2009; and the Government-Related Issuers methodology published in July 2010. Please see the Credit Policy page on www.moodys.com for a copy of these methodologies.
 

tommy271

Forumer storico
S%P è stata più tempestiva nel downgrade di PDVSA (associato a quello del Venezuela).
Moody's segue la strada tradizionale, dopo il downgrade "sovrano" ... quello sul corporate.
E qui ... è piuttosto correlato.
 
Stato
Chiusa ad ulteriori risposte.

Users who are viewing this thread

Alto