Rischio e rendimenti...Venezuela non per tutti
Scusate se ribadisco ...putroppo gli stessi concetti ...gia scritti molte volte, se si investe in Venezuela o in Petroleos de Venezuela ....bisogna essere pronti o ad applicare rigidi Stop loss ...o a vedere escursioni sui prezzi ampie ...
Detto questo ...non è per tutti investire (meglio speculare ) su questi prodotti...
Per cui molti che leggono dovrebbero ripensare molte volte se entrare o meno ...e in che % del propio portafoglio...
Scritto questo la mia visione ...è ....ai prezzi di adesso dei titoli Venezuela & CO. con l'OIL a questi prezzi ed il $ che continua la sua ascesa (prima o dopo poi gira...come sempre) ...ben vengano i reports contrari dei vari JP MOrgan o chichessia ...
Perchè è una buona base di partenza per accumulare o partire ...
Io da parte mia sono ...a conferma come sempre che faccio fatti e non chiacchiere ... entro 1 o 2 mesi incrementare (sempre se non crolla la Grecia) ...sia con le cedole di Agosto pari circa a 40k $ sia con un grosso acquisto pari a circa 250k euro ....per arrivare a circa 1 1,2 milioni di $ del Petroleos 2022 ...
Come sempre il bicchiere puo essere visto mezzo pieno o mezzo vuoto ...
Io continuo a vederlo mezzo pieno ...
P.S. Non uso Stop Loss con il Venezuela ...quindi entro e basta...
Per Gaudente ...
che sicuramente sarà di parere contrario ...ma io lo leggo sempre volentieri ...anche se abbiamo le ideee completamente diverse...
...
Preso sul FOL...
J.P. Morgan Cuts Venezuela Debt To Marketweight From Overweight - WSJ.com
J.P. Morgan Cuts Venezuela Debt To Marketweight From Overweight - WSJ.com
CARACAS (Dow Jones)--Analysts at J.P. Morgan have recommended investors reduce their exposure to Venezuela's high-yield debt, saying they "expect the news flow over the coming months to continue to turn more challenging for bondholders."
Despite high oil prices cushioning the government of President Hugo Chavez, the Wall Street bank cited continued concerns over the central bank's declining foreign reserves and potential negative effects from the state's recently announced increase in the tax on oil income.
The bank moved Venezuelan debt to marketweight from overweight in its model emerging-market bond portfolio, according to a note to clients.
Market participants continue to be cautious of more bond offers since the Venezuelan government uses dollar-bond sales as a mechanism for dispersing greenbacks to the country's private sector
J.P. Morgan also cited potential effects from arbitration court rulings. International courts are expected to rule this year on cases brought forth by Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) and ConocoPhillips (COP), both of which had assets seized during a nationalization campaign spearheaded by Chavez between 2006 and 2007. The bank speculates that Venezuela may have to pay as much as $7 billion to settle the cases.
"While none of these factors taken alone is overly concerning to us in the context of high oil prices, the combination of them skews headline risk to the downside," J.P. Morgan said.
Bonds from the South American country and its state oil monopoly Petroleos de Venezeula, or PDVSA, are among the hottest debt securities in the emerging-market debt world thanks to the high risk--and corresponding high yields--they carry.
The extra yield that investors charge to own Venezuelan debt ranks at the top on J.P. Morgan's benchmark Embig index, where the bonds on average offer more than 11 percentage points over U.S. Treasury yields.
