Titoli di Stato paesi-emergenti VENEZUELA e Petroleos de Venezuela - Cap. 1 (6 lettori)

[tommy271]

Eurasia: Potencial prohibición de importaciones de crudo de EEUU cambiaría disposición de Venezuela a pagar deuda

Reuters

América Latina atraviesa una leve recuperación económica y la inflación de la región está contenida, pero el panorama luce complejo debido a cuestiones políticas internas, el ajuste gradual de la liquidez global y las dudas sobre las medidas del gobierno del presidente de Estados Unidos, Donald Trump.

A continuación, algunos comentarios y proyecciones recientes de analistas que siguen a las economías latinoamericanas:

VENEZUELA

EURASIA – DEUDA

* “Continuamos pensando que el compromiso del gobierno con el servicio de su deuda sigue alto y que ellos pueden evitar el default a duras penas este año (pero) una (potencial) prohibición de importaciones de petróleo (de Estados Unidos) probablemente cambie la disposición” de Venezuela a pagar.

MÉXICO

CAPITAL ECONOMICS – TASAS

* “Tras dejar su tasa de interés en 7,0 por ciento este mes, todavía hay pocas razones para prever un ajuste adicional (del banco central mexicano). Estaremos mirando los datos de la inflación pero por cómo están las cosas, continuamos anticipando una política monetaria sin cambios por lo que resta del año”.

BRASIL

UBS – ECONOMÍA

* “Pese a una situación complicada de las cuentas públicas, parece razonable prever un mejor desempeño (de la economía) en los próximos trimestres por mejoras de la confianza empresarial y de la situación financiera. Prevemos un crecimiento del PIB de 0,5 por ciento en 2017 y 3,1 por ciento en 2018”.

CHILE

ITAÚ UNIBANCO – TASAS

* “Considerando que no hay cambios significativos en el panorama de crecimiento e inflación desde el mes pasado, prevemos que las minutas (del último encuentro del banco central) revelen que la junta (del organismo) estuvo nuevamente dividida respecto de la necesidad de un alivio adicional”.

COLOMBIA

SCOTIABANK – TASAS

* “Se prevé que el Banco Central de la República de Colombia recorte su tasa mínima de pases en 25 puntos base de nuevo el próximo jueves. (La tasa) quedaría solo 75 puntos básicos por encima de donde comenzó, en 4,5 por ciento, cuando el banco central inició un ajuste agresivo en septiembre de 2015”.

PERÚ

JPMORGAN – TASAS

* “Pensamos que el BCRP (Banco Central de Reserva del Perú) recortará su tasa otros 25 puntos básicos el próximo mes, llevando la tasa oficial a un nivel terminal de 3,5 por ciento. El impulso del crédito bancario será una variable clave para observar al estimar las acciones futuras del BCRP”.

ARGENTINA

GOLDMAN SACHS – ECONOMÍA

* “Prevemos que la recuperación económica cíclica se fortalezca y amplíe, con el consumo privado apuntalado por el ascenso de los salarios reales y la inversión pública (…) la estabilización de la economía brasileña debería apoyar incrementalmente al atribulado sector manufacturero”.

(Bancaynegocios.com)

 

[tommy271]

Tra l'altro, il video del supposto prestito cinese - trasmesso dalla VTV - è stato postato su "youtube" dal giornale "El Interes" che fa parte del gruppo di "Elestimulo.com".
Gira e rigira la fonte è sempre quella ...

 

[Miqui]

La fonte della news è sempre la stessa: Elestimulo.com della scorsa settimana.
Da allora sono usciti diversi articoli (anche ieri e oggi) senza apportare una novità in più.

L ultima nn e la stessa pur non fornendo dettagli. Bancaynegocios.

Oltretutto l intervista e di lunedi e cmq essendo multimediale almeno sappiamo che nn e inventata di sana pianta

 

[sandrino]

Downgrade di Fitch
Siamo a CC

 

[Ventodivino]

Fitch Downgrades Venezuela's Ratings to 'CC'
30 AUG 2017 3:30 PM EST

Fitch Ratings-New York-30 August 2017: Fitch Ratings has taken the following rating actions on Venezuela's sovereign ratings:

--Long-term foreign and local currency IDRs downgraded to 'CC' from 'CCC';
--Senior unsecured debt downgraded to 'CC' from 'CCC';
--Short-term foreign and local currency IDRs affirmed at 'C';
--Country ceiling downgraded to 'CC' from 'CCC'.

KEY RATING DRIVERS
Venezuela's downgrade reflect Fitch's view that a default is probable given the further reduction in financing options for the Government of Venezuela following the imposition of additional sanctions on Venezuela by the U.S. government on Aug. 25, 2017. The sanctions prohibit U.S. persons or entities based in the U.S. from a series of financial transactions with the government and PDVSA, including any dealings in new debt as well as dealings in certain existing bonds owned by the Venezuelan public sector and dividend payments to the government of Venezuela.

Venezuela's external liquidity was weak before the sanctions with a liquidity ratio estimated at just 33% (the stock of central bank international reserves plus the banking system's liquid foreign assets relative to external debt with a residual maturity of less than one year). Gross international reserves have declined further in 2017, falling by nearly USD1.2 billion in the year through August to USD9.8 billion. Venezuela has additional FX liquidity in government-managed funds, but these have likely declined and remain opaque in their administration and execution. The U.S. sanctions will exacerbate the country's already weak external liquidity.

The authorities' payment record through severe economic and political stresses has demonstrated the sovereign's strong willingness to service debt. However, the expected reduction in the international reserve position in the context of sanctions will severely test the government's capacity and willingness to continue with timely debt service. The sovereign faces nearly USD3.7 billion in external amortizations in 2018 (USD2 billion in bond amortizations). External financing needs for 2018 are expected to remain high in the context of a current account deficit and amortization needs.

The political environment in Venezuela and relations with a number of countries deteriorated sharply after the government called a Constituent Assembly to rewrite the constitution. The elections for the Assembly were held on July 30. The outcome of this process combined with the U.S. sanctions will likely deepen the political and policy uncertainties, aggravate the economic crisis, heighten political polarization and increase social unrest.

Venezuela's economy is expected to contract for a fourth consecutive year in 2017 with a 5.5% downturn after a deep contraction of an estimated 18.6% in 2016. Venezuela's economic recovery is likely to be further constrained by the prospect of continued tight FX financing/liquidity conditions aggravated by the sanctions, declines in oil production and political uncertainty. Inflation rose to an estimated average of 360% in 2016 (Caracas Inflation Index), and Fitch expects it to end 2017 at over 600% due to FX rationing, distortions in the FX market, monetary financing of the fiscal deficit and price adjustments to counter scarcity. Official data for inflation, the national accounts, and balance of payments has not been published since end-2015.

SOVEREIGN RATING MODEL (SRM) and QUALITATIVE OVERLAY (QO)
As per its published sovereign criteria, for ratings of 'CCC' and below, Fitch has not utilised the SRM and QO to explain the ratings, which are instead guided by rating definitions.

Fitch's SRM is the agency's proprietary multiple regression rating model that employs 18 variables based on three-year centred averages, including one year of forecasts, to produce a score equivalent to a LT FC IDR. Fitch's QO is a forward-looking qualitative framework designed to allow for adjustment to the SRM output to assign the final rating, reflecting factors within our criteria that are not fully quantifiable and/or not fully reflected in the SRM.

RATING SENSITIVITIES
The main risk factors that, individually or collectively, could trigger a rating action are:

Negative:

--A debt restructuring exercise or payment default by the sovereign.

Positive:

--Easing of economic sanctions that improves prospects for FX flows to the economy
--A significant recovery in oil prices that eases financing constraints for the economy or greater than expected bilateral funding to the government and/or PDVSA;
--A reorientation of economic policies that reduces external and macroeconomic vulnerabilities;

KEY ASSUMPTIONS
--Fitch expects Brent oil prices to average USD52.5/b in 2017, USD55/b in 2018 and USD60/b in 2019.

Contact:

Primary Analyst

 

[Ventodivino]

Downgrade di Fitch
Siamo a CC

Quotazioni di là dopo la notizia son cresciute.
Due nocchini.

 

[sandrino]

Quotazioni di là dopo la notizia son cresciute.
Due nocchini.

Quotazioni di là dopo la notizia son cresciute.
Due nocchini.

Sarò stupido io...

 

[freddi]

Camomilla SANDRINO !! Camomilla !!

 

[sandrino]

Camomilla SANDRINO !! Camomilla !!

Presa presa.
Ora mi aspetto una solerte ed immediata risposta di maduro contro le corrotte società di rating imperialiste, e che il Venezuela onorerà la deuda sempre e comunque. Ma sta roba tipo entro domani al massimo eh.

Se però non arriva un commento del genere (in 15 anni lo ha sempre fatto subito) forse la camomilla dovremmo prenderla tutti

 

[Ventodivino]

Quotazioni di là dopo la notizia son cresciute.
Due nocchini.

Solo per la statistica.
Da CCC a CC, come detto, sono due nocchini, avendo saltato, Fitch, il CCC-.
Da CC a D vi è solo C. Manca C-.
A fine giugno avevano confermato CCC.