Titoli di Stato paesi-emergenti VENEZUELA e Petroleos de Venezuela - Cap. 1
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- Stato
Camajan
Forumer storico
13.08.2012 - Standard & Poor's
Venezuela 'B+/B' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Remains Stable
Higher oil prices in 2011 and 2012 are supporting Venezuela's
expansionary fiscal policy, and the country's economic growth has
recovered to 4.2% in 2011 and 5% in 2012.
However, an unpredictable legal framework and distorting economic
measures, as well as political uncertainties due to the upcoming
presidential elections and the deteriorated health of President Hugo
Chavez Frias, continue to weaken the ratings.
We are affirming our 'B+/B' foreign and local currency ratings on
Venezuela.
The stable outlook balances the negative impact of the government's
interventionist policies on investment and growth prospects with the
country's still modest fiscal and external debt positions.
NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) Aug. 10, 2012--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
today said it affirmed its 'B+/B' foreign and local currency sovereign credit
ratings on the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. The outlook remains stable.
Our 'B+' transfer and convertibility assessment and '4' recovery rating remain
unchanged.
The ratings on Venezuela are constrained by political factors and are
supported by the sovereign's strong external and fiscal positions. "An
unpredictable legal framework, price and exchange controls, and other
distorting economic measures continue to weaken Venezuela's domestic economy,"
said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Roberto Sifon-arevalo. "Frequent
nationalizations of private-sector entities have added to policy uncertainty,
undermined private-sector investment, and hurt productivity."
In addition, the deterioration of President Chavez's health--he underwent
cancer treatment during 2012--adds more uncertainty to the political
environment.
"The country's vast oil and gas reserves, which are key positives to external
and fiscal performance, offset the policy uncertainty. Venezuela regularly
posts current account surpluses, and with foreign exchange controls
constraining capital outflows, the government still has a modest net external
asset position," said Mr. Sifon-arevalo. We expect a current account surplus
of 10% of GDP in 2012, up slightly from 9% of GDP in 2011.
After contracting by almost 6% from 2008-2010, real GDP grew 4.2% in 2011, and
we expect it to grow another 5% in 2012, supported by strong public and
private consumption. That said, we expect GDP growth to decelerate to only
1.5% in 2013 after the fiscal stimulus of the presidential campaign wears off.
The stable outlook reflects the risks associated with interventionist
government policies, their negative impact on investment and growth prospects,
and the uncertainties related to the health of the president. The outlook also
reflects Venezuela's still-robust fiscal and external positions. However, a
disorderly transition after the upcoming elections or a significant oil price
decline over an extended period (without compensating policy measures) would
hurt Venezuela's fiscal and external indicators and could lead to a downgrade.
Alternatively, we could consider raising the ratings if the government is able
to stabilize prices and adopt policies that better support investment and
growth.
Venezuela 'B+/B' Ratings Affirmed; Outlook Remains Stable
Higher oil prices in 2011 and 2012 are supporting Venezuela's
expansionary fiscal policy, and the country's economic growth has
recovered to 4.2% in 2011 and 5% in 2012.
However, an unpredictable legal framework and distorting economic
measures, as well as political uncertainties due to the upcoming
presidential elections and the deteriorated health of President Hugo
Chavez Frias, continue to weaken the ratings.
We are affirming our 'B+/B' foreign and local currency ratings on
Venezuela.
The stable outlook balances the negative impact of the government's
interventionist policies on investment and growth prospects with the
country's still modest fiscal and external debt positions.
NEW YORK (Standard & Poor's) Aug. 10, 2012--Standard & Poor's Ratings Services
today said it affirmed its 'B+/B' foreign and local currency sovereign credit
ratings on the Bolivarian Republic of Venezuela. The outlook remains stable.
Our 'B+' transfer and convertibility assessment and '4' recovery rating remain
unchanged.
The ratings on Venezuela are constrained by political factors and are
supported by the sovereign's strong external and fiscal positions. "An
unpredictable legal framework, price and exchange controls, and other
distorting economic measures continue to weaken Venezuela's domestic economy,"
said Standard & Poor's credit analyst Roberto Sifon-arevalo. "Frequent
nationalizations of private-sector entities have added to policy uncertainty,
undermined private-sector investment, and hurt productivity."
In addition, the deterioration of President Chavez's health--he underwent
cancer treatment during 2012--adds more uncertainty to the political
environment.
"The country's vast oil and gas reserves, which are key positives to external
and fiscal performance, offset the policy uncertainty. Venezuela regularly
posts current account surpluses, and with foreign exchange controls
constraining capital outflows, the government still has a modest net external
asset position," said Mr. Sifon-arevalo. We expect a current account surplus
of 10% of GDP in 2012, up slightly from 9% of GDP in 2011.
After contracting by almost 6% from 2008-2010, real GDP grew 4.2% in 2011, and
we expect it to grow another 5% in 2012, supported by strong public and
private consumption. That said, we expect GDP growth to decelerate to only
1.5% in 2013 after the fiscal stimulus of the presidential campaign wears off.
The stable outlook reflects the risks associated with interventionist
government policies, their negative impact on investment and growth prospects,
and the uncertainties related to the health of the president. The outlook also
reflects Venezuela's still-robust fiscal and external positions. However, a
disorderly transition after the upcoming elections or a significant oil price
decline over an extended period (without compensating policy measures) would
hurt Venezuela's fiscal and external indicators and could lead to a downgrade.
Alternatively, we could consider raising the ratings if the government is able
to stabilize prices and adopt policies that better support investment and
growth.
fabriziof
Forumer storico
Prego, sono stato fuori una settimana e ora sto cercando di recuperare tutte le news che avevograzie gion
russiabond
Il mito, la leggenda.
Ci potrebbe essere un calo sulle quotazioni dei Chavez-bonds
http://www.ansa.it/web/notizie/rubr...osione-raffineria-almeno-7-morti_7377645.html
http://www.ansa.it/web/notizie/rubr...osione-raffineria-almeno-7-morti_7377645.html
Baro
Umile contadino
Quasi sicuramente lunedì aprirà male per il Venezuela ma secondo te a quanto potrà aprire? Io seguo US922646AS37 ora molto cara...
Ciao Russia non ti leggevo più dai tempi della porcata greca...
russiabond
Il mito, la leggenda.
Ciao Baro...
ho dato un'occhio al grafico
potrebbe scendere sugli 80 prima e sedersi sui 75 poi ma di questi tempi con l'olio che tiene il prezzo ...la vedo dura ameno di altre news negative
se arriva ad 80 potrebbe essere valido entrare (parlo graficamente) ...
dipende dai danni dai costi in minor misura ...c'è la Cina che sgancia facile per questo ma sopratutto dai tempi di ripristino dell'impianto ...
leggo molto e posto poco ...ho bisogno di ossigeno e speriamo che arrivi ...prima o dopo
sono sulla Dexia LT 2 mi aspetto novità forse già prima della fine dell'estate ...il mese prossimo è cruciale
per il dopo Dexia ho in mente BPM 9% Tier 1 a 50 ...ma si stà alzando
Grecia ...se arrivo a 1,9 - 2 milioni ...
e stò ripensando alle Groupama UT 2 a 40/41 ...se riuscissi a fare un 800k non mi dispiacerebbe
Ciao
- Stato
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