STMicroelectronics (STM) Zona d'inversione, rischiosa ma.... (8 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione *Porfirio*
- Data di Inizio
lucioo
Forumer attivo
Buone vacanze Porfirio!
Mi sà che fai la cosa migliore.....la lasci andare senza stressarti troppo a seguirne le pazze evoluzioni finchè, tra 9 giorni, te la ritrovi fuori dalla zona critica a 17 eurini.....vacanze offerte da STM
Quasi quasi faccio lo stesso, che oggi mi stà pure annoiando!
lucio
Mi sà che fai la cosa migliore.....la lasci andare senza stressarti troppo a seguirne le pazze evoluzioni finchè, tra 9 giorni, te la ritrovi fuori dalla zona critica a 17 eurini.....vacanze offerte da STM
Quasi quasi faccio lo stesso, che oggi mi stà pure annoiando!
lucio
luigina.bs
Forumer storico
*Porfirio* ha scritto:tipo i 17 euro di stm?
ciao luigina...grazie
Se fossi entrata a 13,5 giovedì scorso, invece di revocare l'ordine, per paura, andrebbero benissimo. Anche oggi le aspettavo a 14,10/15 ma non ne hanno voluto sapere, perciò per ora aspetto ancora i 20,5, ma se ritorna a 17 è già a metà strada
lucioo
Forumer attivo
"STM chiude a WS a 14,71€
dopo aver chiuso le contrattazioni diurne a Milano a 14,51
e l'ah a 14,59 (toccati 14,60)
se ben ricordo 14,71 era proprio il target dato da Nicolas x oggi
Gli elliottiani di FtaOnline dopo lunghe e (per me) astruse elucubrazioni il 17.08.2004 alle 10:22 partorivano quanto segue:
Operativamente: a 14.06 sono state stoppate le posizioni al rialzo. Sotto 14 vendevamo per 13.50, target raggiunto in chiusura di settimana. Partendo da posizione neutrale, e solo in ottica di breve aggressiva, si possono avviare posizioni al rialzo da area 14 euro, da proteggere con stop sotto 13.50, conprimo target a 15.15, limite superiore del gap del 4 agosto. Solo oltre i 16.7 euro, media mobile a 60 giorni e trend line dai massimi di gennaio, comprare anche in ottica di medio con obiettivi a 18 e 19.50 euro. In caso di violazione di area 13.5 lo spazio per il ribasso aumenta, fino a 11.50 circa, e si possono quindi avviare posizioni short di ampio respiro.
Analogamente, in data 11.08.2004 ore 10:39 sentenziavano:
Operativamente: Solo in ottica di breve aggressiva si possono avviare posizioni al rialzo da proteggere con stop sotto i minimi del 9 agosto a 14.06, primo target a 15.75. Solo oltre i 17 euro, media mobile a 60 giorni e trend line dai massimi di gennaio, comprare anche in ottica di medio con obiettivi a 18 e 19.50 euro. In caso di violazione di area 14 il primo supporto non è distante, a 13.50, quindi consigliabili solo vendite di breve. Sotto questa soglia invece lo spazio aumenta, fino a 11.50 circa, e si possono quindi avviare posizioni short di più ampio respiro.
Il TS di Trendonline, entrato long il 16/8 a 14,26, per domani dà lo short sotto 13,74"
mercoledì 18 agosto 2004 - 23.13.09 by EUGE (forum ideainborsa)
dopo aver chiuso le contrattazioni diurne a Milano a 14,51
e l'ah a 14,59 (toccati 14,60)
se ben ricordo 14,71 era proprio il target dato da Nicolas x oggi
Gli elliottiani di FtaOnline dopo lunghe e (per me) astruse elucubrazioni il 17.08.2004 alle 10:22 partorivano quanto segue:
Operativamente: a 14.06 sono state stoppate le posizioni al rialzo. Sotto 14 vendevamo per 13.50, target raggiunto in chiusura di settimana. Partendo da posizione neutrale, e solo in ottica di breve aggressiva, si possono avviare posizioni al rialzo da area 14 euro, da proteggere con stop sotto 13.50, conprimo target a 15.15, limite superiore del gap del 4 agosto. Solo oltre i 16.7 euro, media mobile a 60 giorni e trend line dai massimi di gennaio, comprare anche in ottica di medio con obiettivi a 18 e 19.50 euro. In caso di violazione di area 13.5 lo spazio per il ribasso aumenta, fino a 11.50 circa, e si possono quindi avviare posizioni short di ampio respiro.
Analogamente, in data 11.08.2004 ore 10:39 sentenziavano:
Operativamente: Solo in ottica di breve aggressiva si possono avviare posizioni al rialzo da proteggere con stop sotto i minimi del 9 agosto a 14.06, primo target a 15.75. Solo oltre i 17 euro, media mobile a 60 giorni e trend line dai massimi di gennaio, comprare anche in ottica di medio con obiettivi a 18 e 19.50 euro. In caso di violazione di area 14 il primo supporto non è distante, a 13.50, quindi consigliabili solo vendite di breve. Sotto questa soglia invece lo spazio aumenta, fino a 11.50 circa, e si possono quindi avviare posizioni short di più ampio respiro.
Il TS di Trendonline, entrato long il 16/8 a 14,26, per domani dà lo short sotto 13,74"
mercoledì 18 agosto 2004 - 23.13.09 by EUGE (forum ideainborsa)
lucioo
Forumer attivo
...ancora EUGE riportaon't Dismiss Chips Now
By Thomas Kurlak
Special to RealMoney.com
7/13/2004 10:53 AM EDT
Whatever happened to "buy low, sell high"? A lot of tech analysts seem to have gotten it reversed lately, running away from stocks already down 25% to 40% due to fears of an impending slowdown that doesn't seem to be evident in the reports I get from top industry participants.
Indeed, one leading chip-equipment maker, Novellus, just reported a 41% increase in sales and a fivefold jump in profit, above analysts' views, but some were unimpressed, instead looking for a slowdown. Novellus' management raised its third-quarter guidance, calling for a 113% year-over-year sales gain, which is up 22% sequentially, in a summer quarter.
Fears of a peaking semiconductor cycle are largely based on the worry that too much new capacity is being installed, thus glutting the market. This looks wrong to me. As I said in my previous column, chip-equipment buying this year will total about $44 billion, or about 20% of semiconductor industry revenue, estimated by most forecasters to be around $225 billion.
This ratio of spending to sales is in line with the industry's 20-year long-term average and is only half of the level at the last cycle peak. Today, the CEO of Applied Materials commented on CNBC that his customers are planning to buy more equipment, are upbeat and need the newest equipment technology to meet rising demand. Also, recent data from the Semiconductor Industry Association show that capacity utilization is near 100%.
Meanwhile, the semiconductor companies aren't having an inventory buildup that is out of line with what is normal this time of year in anticipation of seasonally stronger second-half demand. That's especially true in Intel's case, where it has new microprocessors coming to market for new notebook PCs. A leading electronics distributor tells me his inventory is in good shape, and his customers are optimistic.
Up until today with Novellus, we've only gotten earnings statements from also-ran, third-tier semiconductor companies that confessed to be having trouble (meaning, losing share) and that see trouble ahead. Let's wait for the real players before forming a judgment on the industry. Wall Street downgrades into earnings releases imply that either some bad news is anticipated or analysts are trying to make their opinions fit the current climate.
I'm a proponent of anticipating change; it's what a good analyst tries to do. But I've never seen a major cycle peak out after only a year and a half. Sure, there have been a lot of mini-cycles within an overall recovery, but for longer-term investors, those have always been buying opportunities.
In the whole scheme of things, I don't see much chance for this economic recovery to top out, even with an administration change in the White House. Neither candidate wants this recovery to stall. The semiconductor industry grows by about five times the growth in real GDP; so as long as GDP exceeds 3%, this year and next should be good growth years for the chip companies.
-----------------------------------------
At time of original publication, Kurlak was long Intel, Applied Materials and other tech holdings not mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time.
Tom Kurlak is an independent investor specializing in technology industry investments. He has more than two decades of experience as a senior Wall Street semiconductor analyst and technology hedge fund manager. Kurlak consistently ranked among the nation's top analysts in the annual Institutional Investor Magazine All Star Research Team survey. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Although he cannot answer questions about individual securities, Kurlak appreciates your feedback and invites you to send your comments to [email protected].
e ...
Chip Correction Nearing a Bottom
6/18/2004 12:31 PM EDT
By Thomas Kurlak
After six months of hard times, this might be the best time to buy these stocks since late 2002.
on't Dismiss Chips Now By Thomas Kurlak
Special to RealMoney.com
7/13/2004 10:53 AM EDT
Whatever happened to "buy low, sell high"? A lot of tech analysts seem to have gotten it reversed lately, running away from stocks already down 25% to 40% due to fears of an impending slowdown that doesn't seem to be evident in the reports I get from top industry participants.
Indeed, one leading chip-equipment maker, Novellus, just reported a 41% increase in sales and a fivefold jump in profit, above analysts' views, but some were unimpressed, instead looking for a slowdown. Novellus' management raised its third-quarter guidance, calling for a 113% year-over-year sales gain, which is up 22% sequentially, in a summer quarter.
Fears of a peaking semiconductor cycle are largely based on the worry that too much new capacity is being installed, thus glutting the market. This looks wrong to me. As I said in my previous column, chip-equipment buying this year will total about $44 billion, or about 20% of semiconductor industry revenue, estimated by most forecasters to be around $225 billion.
This ratio of spending to sales is in line with the industry's 20-year long-term average and is only half of the level at the last cycle peak. Today, the CEO of Applied Materials commented on CNBC that his customers are planning to buy more equipment, are upbeat and need the newest equipment technology to meet rising demand. Also, recent data from the Semiconductor Industry Association show that capacity utilization is near 100%.
Meanwhile, the semiconductor companies aren't having an inventory buildup that is out of line with what is normal this time of year in anticipation of seasonally stronger second-half demand. That's especially true in Intel's case, where it has new microprocessors coming to market for new notebook PCs. A leading electronics distributor tells me his inventory is in good shape, and his customers are optimistic.
Up until today with Novellus, we've only gotten earnings statements from also-ran, third-tier semiconductor companies that confessed to be having trouble (meaning, losing share) and that see trouble ahead. Let's wait for the real players before forming a judgment on the industry. Wall Street downgrades into earnings releases imply that either some bad news is anticipated or analysts are trying to make their opinions fit the current climate.
I'm a proponent of anticipating change; it's what a good analyst tries to do. But I've never seen a major cycle peak out after only a year and a half. Sure, there have been a lot of mini-cycles within an overall recovery, but for longer-term investors, those have always been buying opportunities.
In the whole scheme of things, I don't see much chance for this economic recovery to top out, even with an administration change in the White House. Neither candidate wants this recovery to stall. The semiconductor industry grows by about five times the growth in real GDP; so as long as GDP exceeds 3%, this year and next should be good growth years for the chip companies.
-----------------------------------------
At time of original publication, Kurlak was long Intel, Applied Materials and other tech holdings not mentioned in this column, although holdings can change at any time.
Tom Kurlak is an independent investor specializing in technology industry investments. He has more than two decades of experience as a senior Wall Street semiconductor analyst and technology hedge fund manager. Kurlak consistently ranked among the nation's top analysts in the annual Institutional Investor Magazine All Star Research Team survey. Under no circumstances does the information in this column represent a recommendation to buy or sell stocks. Although he cannot answer questions about individual securities, Kurlak appreciates your feedback and invites you to send your comments to [email protected].
e ...
Chip Correction Nearing a Bottom
6/18/2004 12:31 PM EDT
By Thomas Kurlak
After six months of hard times, this might be the best time to buy these stocks since late 2002.
lucioo
Forumer attivo
Ciao e grazie per la collaborazione. Non sono un grande esperto di grafici ma la tua ipotesi è più che plausibile.scoon ha scritto:Questo è quanto accaduto rispetto al grafico postato in mattinata ...!
Credo che dobbiamo aspettare lunedì per avere conferme long sopra la trend verde e short sotto la neck line rossa: cosa ne pensate ...?
Buon week end e a lunedì
lucio
*Porfirio*
Forumer attivo
come si può scendere?
(poi me ne vado....tranquilli eheh)
(poi me ne vado....tranquilli eheh)
Jack73
Forumer attivo
scoon ha scritto:Questo è quanto accaduto rispetto al grafico postato in mattinata ...!
Credo che dobbiamo aspettare lunedì per avere conferme long sopra la trend verde e short sotto la neck line rossa: cosa ne pensate ...?
Direi che il grafico non ha bisogno di ulteriori commenti.Ottimo lavoro,ciao.