Titoli di Stato area non Euro ARGENTINA obbligazioni e tango bond (24 lettori)

[balcarlo]

BofAML's views on Argentina Strategy

For a fuller background on the case and the bonds see Argentina: No Magic Wand to Stop the Court, March 2013. We believe that what is priced in these lofty prices is a small probability that each of several positive outcomes could pass that would enable Argentina to pay on the exchange bonds and that any disappointment degrades value.

We believe the current prices are too high and do not sufficiently price in the risks of a negative outcome. We think that there are several turning points over time, each with a small potential probability of a positive outcome that would enable Argentina to pay coupon on the exchange bonds. At each point, if the outcome for Argentina is negative, we would expect bond prices to deteriorate, as the probability of an ultimate positive resolution declines. Below we think are some of the pivotal points where some investors are expecting there could be a positive outcome.

First, though we think it is reasonable to assume there is a a very small probability, that the court decides not to enjoin financial intermediaries, if the Court were to do so we would expect the prices of the bonds to increase significantly.

Second, were the ruling to go against against Argentina, the expectation of many is that the stay would remain in place by the Appeals Court. We think this has a reasonable likelihood and that bonds would rally some, but not a lot. However, if the stay is lifted, in our view, the bonds should sell off some but we think the expectation would be that there would be a request for an emergency stay at the Supreme Court level.

Third, we are of the view that investors expect the Supreme Court will grant the stay if the Appeals Court does not. If they do not, we expect that the bonds would fall harder and CDS will be triggered.

Fourth, some investors are expecting that that the Supreme Court will hear the case. If so, we expect the bonds to rally a lot, and if not, then we think the bonds would fall very hard.

Fifth, if the Supreme Court hears the case some believe they will rule in favor of Argentina. In that case, in our view, the bonds could rally to a level 30% higher than today,and the plaintiffs would be left with yet another claim that will remain unpaid. But even if the court rules against Argentina and any remaining stays were to be lifted, there would still be a residual expectation that an exchange into local law could be viable.

We believe that the chances are tipped against Argentina in almost all of those potential positive outcomes, discussed above that the market is overestimating the ability to effect a comprehensive exchange into local law bonds and that the demand for a large amount of long local law Argentine bonds will not be high.

On the other hand, we believe that if Argentina choses not to pay on the exchange bonds as a result of the court decision it will do everything it can to pay on the current local law debt to prove that the US courts are to blame..For this reason, we recommend the Boden 15s. Among the exchange bonds, the Pars are at $33.5 and were at a low in March of $31.25 so we do not see much downside on those.

We believe it is reasonable to assume the probabilities of the potential positive outcomes above above are very low and that the 20% rally that has taken place in the exchange bonds over the last 4 months is excessive. We do recognize that a likely extension of the decision by even a year could justify a higher price of around 10% because of the high coupon income relative to the price, but we think the prices rallied too much and there will be a correction at the next decision point.

[...]c' è qualche anima gentile che riesce a fare un sunto in italiano corrente dei 3 post senza usare il traduttore che spesso travisa il significato vero dele frasi?

 

[tommy271]

Analysis - Will Argentina pay warrants? Likely in 2013, not in 2014

Reuters August 2, 2013, 10:13 pm




By Caroline Stauffer




BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Argentina is on track to post strong enough economic growth in 2013 to trigger billions of dollars in bond warrant payments, but the uptick will likely prove short-lived, leaving warrant holders empty handed in 2014.

President Cristina Fernandez has prioritized economic growth ahead of an October mid-term election that will determine whether she keeps control of Congress. The 60-year-old Peronist leader promises 4.4 percent economic expansion in 2013 on the back of strong soy and corn harvests.

To pump life into Latin America's third largest economy, her government has used extra government spending to temporarily reverse the effects of currency and capital controls she imposed shortly after starting her second term in late 2011.

Economic activity jumped 7.8 percent in May and 7.0 percent in April, well above forecasts. Even private economists, long skeptical of the veracity of Argentina's official data, now expect official 2013 growth above the 3.22 percent that would require the warrant payments.

So Argentina will likely have to dip into diminishing foreign currency reserves and pay up to $3 billion in GDP-linked bond warrants in December 2014, according to seven out of 10 banks and analysis firms surveyed by Reuters in the past week.
No one expects 2014 growth to merit another payment.

Private growth forecasts for next year range from 0.5 to 2.8 percent, a sign Fernandez's high-spending, high-growth model will lose steam after the October 27 vote.

"The growth is not sustainable - in 2014 we will have a serious financing problem," Rodolfo Rossi, a former director of Argentina's central bank, said in an interview.

SPEND SPEND SPEND

A small, 1.9 percent expansion in 2012 put an end to a decade of galloping growth and prompted Fernandez to raise official annual public spending by 16.8 percent for 2013. Private estimates indicate spending will actually balloon by more than 30 percent this year.

Government spending has surpassed income for years and escalated more recently. Argentina's primary budget surplus, a measure of government finances before debts are serviced, fell by 30 percent in May compared with a year earlier.

Other pro-growth measures, like ordering banks to lend 5.0 percent of all deposits to small businesses, have pushed up consumer prices, forcing Fernandez to impose price controls on 500 supermarket items.

The country's INDEC statistics agency is widely accused of under-reporting inflation and, to a lesser extent, misreporting growth data. There were suspicions the government lowered growth figures in 2012 to avoid warrant payments.

Private estimates put 12-month inflation at about 25 percent in Argentina, one of the highest rates in the world.

"The government is making no effort to solve the underlying problem of inflation," said Fiona Mackie, an Argentina analyst for the Economist Intelligence Unit. "It will be increasingly difficult for it to engineer some sort of easy exit."

Yet Fernandez, who recently raised the minimum wage, frequently tells Argentines they are better off. Consumer confidence rose in June and July according to a survey from the private Di Tella University.

"You see it in the clothes of the people coming to our events, you see it in the shoes worn by the kids, you see it in the record used car sales," Fernandez said in a recent speech.

'SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO BE DONE'

Auto production, a key component of industrial production, indeed rose 19.8 percent in June from a year earlier according to industry group AdeFa. Car sales jumped by 22.1 percent.

Many of those sales are desperation buys from a population that can't access U.S. dollars due to currency controls, doesn't trust the peso, and buys material goods as a way of saving. Farmers for example are piling up their corn and soybean reserves rather than putting pesos in the bank.

Grain exports are one of Argentina's main sources of dollars, and higher 2013 output following last year's drought helped the economy. The sector could take a hit if demand from top-customer China falls, as expected.

Economists generally see growth continuing through the third quarter of this year, although below April and May levels, and slowing sharply in the fourth quarter. Industrial output missed expectations in June in a sign a cool-down may already be on the way.

At a time of waning dollar inflows, the government is spending more to import energy as its natural gas production drops and borrowing from its own foreign currency reserves. The country has been virtually locked out of capital markets since its massive 2002 sovereign debt default.

Central bank reserves are $37 billion, half the size of the central bank of Peru, a much smaller country in the region.

To avoid a balance of payment crisis, something might have to give.
Though Fernandez denies it, the government may devalue the currency, which is trading on the black market at nearly half the official rate.

"Something will have to be done after the election - likely deepening foreign exchange and import controls, it will be similar to what happened in 2012, when growth was weak," said one local economist who asked not to be named.

(Editing by Hugh Bronstein and Andrew Hay)

 

[bia06]

Veloce traduzione

Caro Balcarlo,

traduco volentieri (sintesi):

Il valore attuale delle quotazioni e´ troppo elevato e non riflette accuratamente i rischi insiti nelle obbligazioni argentine.

Anche in caso di decisione della corte favorevole all´Argentina il potenziale di salita dei bond non e´ elevato (al massimo +20/30%).

D´altra parte un ruling negativo della corte porterebbe significativi rischi di discesa.


In breve, tranne il Par prezzato adeguatamente, sul resto suggerisce di non incrementare di certo.

Stammi bene.

Buona settimana a tutti.

BofAML's views on Argentina Strategy

For a fuller background on the case and the bonds see Argentina: No Magic Wand to Stop the Court, March 2013. We believe that what is priced in these lofty prices is a small probability that each of several positive outcomes could pass that would enable Argentina to pay on the exchange bonds and that any disappointment degrades value.

We believe the current prices are too high and do not sufficiently price in the risks of a negative outcome. We think that there are several turning points over time, each with a small potential probability of a positive outcome that would enable Argentina to pay coupon on the exchange bonds. At each point, if the outcome for Argentina is negative, we would expect bond prices to deteriorate, as the probability of an ultimate positive resolution declines. Below we think are some of the pivotal points where some investors are expecting there could be a positive outcome.

First, though we think it is reasonable to assume there is a a very small probability, that the court decides not to enjoin financial intermediaries, if the Court were to do so we would expect the prices of the bonds to increase significantly.

Second, were the ruling to go against against Argentina, the expectation of many is that the stay would remain in place by the Appeals Court. We think this has a reasonable likelihood and that bonds would rally some, but not a lot. However, if the stay is lifted, in our view, the bonds should sell off some but we think the expectation would be that there would be a request for an emergency stay at the Supreme Court level.

Third, we are of the view that investors expect the Supreme Court will grant the stay if the Appeals Court does not. If they do not, we expect that the bonds would fall harder and CDS will be triggered.

Fourth, some investors are expecting that that the Supreme Court will hear the case. If so, we expect the bonds to rally a lot, and if not, then we think the bonds would fall very hard.

Fifth, if the Supreme Court hears the case some believe they will rule in favor of Argentina. In that case, in our view, the bonds could rally to a level 30% higher than today,and the plaintiffs would be left with yet another claim that will remain unpaid. But even if the court rules against Argentina and any remaining stays were to be lifted, there would still be a residual expectation that an exchange into local law could be viable.

We believe that the chances are tipped against Argentina in almost all of those potential positive outcomes, discussed above that the market is overestimating the ability to effect a comprehensive exchange into local law bonds and that the demand for a large amount of long local law Argentine bonds will not be high.

On the other hand, we believe that if Argentina choses not to pay on the exchange bonds as a result of the court decision it will do everything it can to pay on the current local law debt to prove that the US courts are to blame..For this reason, we recommend the Boden 15s. Among the exchange bonds, the Pars are at $33.5 and were at a low in March of $31.25 so we do not see much downside on those.

We believe it is reasonable to assume the probabilities of the potential positive outcomes above above are very low and that the 20% rally that has taken place in the exchange bonds over the last 4 months is excessive. We do recognize that a likely extension of the decision by even a year could justify a higher price of around 10% because of the high coupon income relative to the price, but we think the prices rallied too much and there will be a correction at the next decision point.

 

[balcarlo]

Caro Balcarlo,

traduco volentieri (sintesi):

Il valore attuale delle quotazioni e´ troppo elevato e non riflette accuratamente i rischi insiti nelle obbligazioni argentine.

Anche in caso di decisione della corte favorevole all´Argentina il potenziale di salita dei bond non e´ elevato (al massimo +20/30%).

D´altra parte un ruling negativo della corte porterebbe significativi rischi di discesa.


In breve, tranne il Par prezzato adeguatamente, sul resto suggerisce di non incrementare di certo.

Stammi bene.

Buona settimana a tutti.

Grazie, era quello che cercavo............complimenti per la precisione, la concisione e la chiarezza.............il contenuto poi ognuno è libero di giudicarlo come meglio crede.........il mercato comunque è sempre il giudice migliore.................

 

[fabriziof]

Analysis - Will Argentina pay warrants? Likely in 2013, not in 2014

Reuters August 2, 2013, 10:13 pm




By Caroline Stauffer




BUENOS AIRES (Reuters) - Argentina is on track to post strong enough economic growth in 2013 to trigger billions of dollars in bond warrant payments, but the uptick will likely prove short-lived, leaving warrant holders empty handed in 2014.

President Cristina Fernandez has prioritized economic growth ahead of an October mid-term election that will determine whether she keeps control of Congress. The 60-year-old Peronist leader promises 4.4 percent economic expansion in 2013 on the back of strong soy and corn harvests.

To pump life into Latin America's third largest economy, her government has used extra government spending to temporarily reverse the effects of currency and capital controls she imposed shortly after starting her second term in late 2011.

Economic activity jumped 7.8 percent in May and 7.0 percent in April, well above forecasts. Even private economists, long skeptical of the veracity of Argentina's official data, now expect official 2013 growth above the 3.22 percent that would require the warrant payments.

So Argentina will likely have to dip into diminishing foreign currency reserves and pay up to $3 billion in GDP-linked bond warrants in December 2014, according to seven out of 10 banks and analysis firms surveyed by Reuters in the past week.
No one expects 2014 growth to merit another payment.

Private growth forecasts for next year range from 0.5 to 2.8 percent, a sign Fernandez's high-spending, high-growth model will lose steam after the October 27 vote.

"The growth is not sustainable - in 2014 we will have a serious financing problem," Rodolfo Rossi, a former director of Argentina's central bank, said in an interview.

SPEND SPEND SPEND

A small, 1.9 percent expansion in 2012 put an end to a decade of galloping growth and prompted Fernandez to raise official annual public spending by 16.8 percent for 2013. Private estimates indicate spending will actually balloon by more than 30 percent this year.

Government spending has surpassed income for years and escalated more recently. Argentina's primary budget surplus, a measure of government finances before debts are serviced, fell by 30 percent in May compared with a year earlier.

Other pro-growth measures, like ordering banks to lend 5.0 percent of all deposits to small businesses, have pushed up consumer prices, forcing Fernandez to impose price controls on 500 supermarket items.

The country's INDEC statistics agency is widely accused of under-reporting inflation and, to a lesser extent, misreporting growth data. There were suspicions the government lowered growth figures in 2012 to avoid warrant payments.

Private estimates put 12-month inflation at about 25 percent in Argentina, one of the highest rates in the world.

"The government is making no effort to solve the underlying problem of inflation," said Fiona Mackie, an Argentina analyst for the Economist Intelligence Unit. "It will be increasingly difficult for it to engineer some sort of easy exit."

Yet Fernandez, who recently raised the minimum wage, frequently tells Argentines they are better off. Consumer confidence rose in June and July according to a survey from the private Di Tella University.

"You see it in the clothes of the people coming to our events, you see it in the shoes worn by the kids, you see it in the record used car sales," Fernandez said in a recent speech.

'SOMETHING WILL HAVE TO BE DONE'

Auto production, a key component of industrial production, indeed rose 19.8 percent in June from a year earlier according to industry group AdeFa. Car sales jumped by 22.1 percent.

Many of those sales are desperation buys from a population that can't access U.S. dollars due to currency controls, doesn't trust the peso, and buys material goods as a way of saving. Farmers for example are piling up their corn and soybean reserves rather than putting pesos in the bank.

Grain exports are one of Argentina's main sources of dollars, and higher 2013 output following last year's drought helped the economy. The sector could take a hit if demand from top-customer China falls, as expected.

Economists generally see growth continuing through the third quarter of this year, although below April and May levels, and slowing sharply in the fourth quarter. Industrial output missed expectations in June in a sign a cool-down may already be on the way.

At a time of waning dollar inflows, the government is spending more to import energy as its natural gas production drops and borrowing from its own foreign currency reserves. The country has been virtually locked out of capital markets since its massive 2002 sovereign debt default.

Central bank reserves are $37 billion, half the size of the central bank of Peru, a much smaller country in the region.

To avoid a balance of payment crisis, something might have to give.
Though Fernandez denies it, the government may devalue the currency, which is trading on the black market at nearly half the official rate.

"Something will have to be done after the election - likely deepening foreign exchange and import controls, it will be similar to what happened in 2012, when growth was weak," said one local economist who asked not to be named.

(Editing by Hugh Bronstein and Andrew Hay)

per non confonderci chiariamo che secondo l'articolo il pagamento del warrant avverrà nel dicembre 2014 ma non nel dicembre 2015.magari,mi accontenterei volentieri

 

[Acchiappaladri]

Siamo rimasti al "mare nostrum" .

Ritengo che ciò non possa avere ripercussioni a breve sul mercato dei TdS argentini, sia i Veteranos che la neocartaccia da scambio, però per la cronaca avviso che in data 31 Luglio all' ICSID c'è stato un ulteriore passettino avanti procedurale (o meglio un passo avanti e uno più piccolo indietro) nell'arbitrato organizzato da TFA.
Posso ancora sperare in una sentenza dell'ICSID nei primi mesi del 2014.

dagoweb : c'è lavoro per te

 

[tommy271]

Personalmente evidenzio in neretto le parti più salienti, proprio per evitare una faticosa lettura.
Se poi l'argomento interessa, uno si legge tutto.

 

[dagoweb]

https://icsid.worldbank.org/ICSID/F...&actionVal=showDoc&docId=DC3300_En&caseId=C95

https://icsid.worldbank.org/ICSID/F...&actionVal=showDoc&docId=DC3301_En&caseId=C95

Mettiamoli anche di qui, male non fanno, chi vuole se li legge chi non vuole passa oltre

 

[carib]

Cronista...

El Gobierno cree que el escenario externo le permitirá al Banco Central recomponer parte de las reservas perdidas en los últimos meses, de manera de poder contar a fin de año con un nivel cercano a los u$s 40.000 millones. Con ese margen, ya tiene decidido aplicar esos recursos el Fondo de Desendeudamiento Argentino (Fondea), tanto para pagar los vencimientos de deuda de 2014 como para financiar importaciones de bienes de capital para el sector energético.


Un dato sobresale en este escenario: en el anteproyecto de Presupuesto 2014 que circula en el Poder Ejecutivo, ya está contemplado el pago del cupón atado al PBI. A casi 45 de la presentación del texto en el Congreso, la estrategia oficial será replicar el armado usado para este año, cuando Economía habilitó el uso de reservas excedentes del Fondea para financiar gastos corrientes y de capital para energía e infraestructura siempre que tuvieran un efecto monetario neutro.


En 2014, la carga de vencimientos de deuda es más que moderada. El pago más importante ocurrirá en diciembre, cuando haya que hacer frente al cupón por el crecimiento económico de este año. En despachos oficiales esta opción es algo más que una hipótesis firme. Lo mismo sucede con las principales consultoras privadas, para quienes el arrastre estadístico del primer semestre casi garantiza que el año cerrará arriba de 3,26%, gatillando el pago.


Luego de anotar estos u$s 3.500 millones, el país afrontará pagos por u$s 5.629 millones el año entrante, o alrededor del 1% del PBI, según estimaciones del Estudio Bein. A eso habrá que sumar el pago de deuda a organismos internacionales con reservas, que este año totalizará u$s 2.334 millones.


Las proyecciones del Ejecutivo que contrastan con las del grueso de las estimaciones privadas son las que miden la evolución de las reservas. Según Bein y Orlando Ferreres, rondarán los u$s 35.000 millones a fin de año, aun con un ingreso de u$s 2.000 millones producto del blanqueo de capitales.


“Se pierden casi u$s 1.000 millones por mes. Si bien se frenó la salida de capitales porque se prohibió, la balanza comercial se está deteriorando muy rápidamente y la de servicios, también”, afirmó Fausto Spotorno, director del estudio Ferreres. “Entre transporte, turismo y gastos con tarjeta de crédito se van u$s 8.000 millones al año, además del déficit energético de casi u$s 7.000 millones”, agregó.
Pero en el Ejecutivo descuentan que, tarde o temprano, el complejo agroexportador deberá liquidar los cerca de 22 millones de toneladas de soja que todavía retienen, valuada en casi u$s 11.000 millones de acuerdo a la cotización de la oleaginosa informada por el Ministerio de Agricultura la semana pasada.


Si bien buena parte de esas divisas irán a pagar las crecientes importaciones de combustibles que lleva adelante el Gobierno a través de Enarsa, Cammesa e YPF, la apuesta oficial es que la buena cosecha impacte de una buena vez en el nivel de las reservas.


La caída del precio de la soja de casi 8% del último mes moderó el eventual ingreso de divisas, pero, por otro lado, impulsaría a los exportadores a liquidar sus activos. “La liquidación es menor a la que debería ser dada la cosecha y ahora la soja cae. Por un lado, hay menos precio. Por el otro, puede acelerar la liquidación”, afirmó Marina Dal Poggetto, directora del estudio Bein. La semana pasada, la presidenta Cristina Fernández y el titular de la AFIP, Ricardo Echegaray, acusaron a los agroexportadores por “especular” y lamentaron la pérdida tanto de dólares al BCRA como de impuestos.

 

[fagiano83]

Leggo qui di cedola Pil...ma quella relativa al 2012 verrà pagata a dicembre 2013? Grazie