carib
rerum cognoscere causas
gli Euro, che io sappia, non passano per NY.. ma le banche internazionali non vogliono correre rischi di contrariare la giustizia USA.
Titoli di Stato area non Euro ARGENTINA obbligazioni e tango bond (23 lettori)
- Creatore Discussione SINIBALDO
- Data di Inizio
gli Euro, che io sappia, non passano per NY.. ma le banche internazionali non vogliono correre rischi di contrariare la giustizia USA.
Argentina is offering to swap holders of New York-law bonds into debt governed by local legislation as investors shift into the notes after a U.S. court sided with creditors seeking full repayment on claims from the nation’s record default in 2001.
The move comes after the Aug. 23 ruling, which prompted dollar-denominated local law bonds due 2017 to rally and yield 3.95 percentage points less than similar-maturity notes issued under New York rules yesterday. The gap grew to within 0.11 percentage point of the record 4.06 percentage point difference April 3. At 11.85 percent, the local-law debt yielded twice the emerging-market average, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Faced with the prospect of paying the holdout creditors in full or risking a second default in 12 years, President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner said in a national address yesterday she will offer a third swap at the same terms to owners of defaulted debt who rejected previous exchanges, as well as to holders of the restructured notes. The proposal is aimed at circumventing the U.S. court ruling without reneging on payments to the New York-law bondholders.
“There was always the expectation that if Argentina couldn’t win in court, it would find anther way to get its way, for example, by re-routing payments,” Diego Ferro, co-chief investment officer at Greylock Capital Management, which oversees $500 million in emerging-market debt including restructured Argentine bonds, said in a telephone interview. “It’s a predictable patch solution that in the end guarantees that dollar debt will be paid.”
Bonds Fall
Greylock hasn’t decided whether it’ll accept the debt swap into local law, Ferro said.
Argentina’s proposal trigged declines in the local-law bonds today. The dollar securities due 2017 fell the most in four months, plunging 2.68 cents to 85.46 cents on the dollar at 10:41 a.m. in New York. Dollar notes due 2017 sold under New York law tumbled 2.03 cents to 78.12 cents on the dollar.
The appeals court on Aug. 23 said it would delay the effect of its ruling until the U.S. Supreme Court decides whether to review the case, which may not come until the first quarter of 2014, according to law firm Shearman & Sterling LLP. The stay would be lifted if the Supreme Court doesn’t take the case putting subsequent bond payments in jeopardy of default since Argentina has said it won’t obey the court orders to pay creditors Fernandez has dubbed “vultures.”
‘Serial Payers’
The debt swap would be offered into local law debt in the same terms and currency as original bonds, according to Fernandez.
“Instead of recalcitrant debtors, we are serial payers,” Fernandez, 60, said in her speech, adding that the country has paid about $174 billion in debt since 2003. “The ruling ignored the country’s accords reached with 93 percent of holders of defaulted debt.”
She also said the ruling invalidates future debt restructurings and asked God to “illuminate” the U.S. high court.
The changing of jurisdiction on performing debt governed by international law will be voluntary and dependent on the outcome of the nation’s request for the Supreme Court to take their case, a government official, who isn’t authorized to speak publicly about the plans, said in an interview. The re-opening of the swap is intended to show the Supreme Court the nation’s willingness to pay, he said.
‘Most Pragmatic’
The Supreme Court grants only one percent of about 8,000 petitions it receives every year.
“This is the most pragmatic thing they could have done,” said Alberto Bernal, head of fixed-income research at Bulltick Capital Markets in Miami. “It’s good news for bonds because it shows total willingness to pay, even if Argentina is trying to circumvent U.S. courts.”
Banks from Credit Suisse Group AG to Barclays Plc say that investors should buy local-law bonds, which are exempt from the court orders, as default risk for debt sold abroad increases after Argentina’s appeal was rejected.
“We recommend only the shortest local-law bonds in Argentina,” said Daniel Chodos, a strategist at Credit Suisse, said in a telephone interview from New York, referring to dollar notes due 2013 and 2015. “The ruling states that the order is for the exchange bonds, which were sold under foreign law, so local law bonds shouldn’t be involved.”
‘Right Mind’
Investors will probably switch to the 2015 bonds after the government pays $2 billion of principal on the 2013 bonds next month, giving the longer notes additional support, Chodos said.
“Nobody in their right mind would resign New York protection for Argentine law,” Jorge Piedrahita, chief executive officer of Torino Capital LLC in New York, said in an e-mail. “Payments would be easily embargoed by Elliott and there’s the risk of having to get the money out of Argentina.”
Argentina in 2001 defaulted on a record $95 billion of foreign debt. Holders of about 91 percent of the bonds agreed to take new exchange bonds in 2005 and 2010, at about 30 cents on the dollar. Creditors including billionaire Paul Singer’s Elliott Management Corp. have rejected the swaps.
Fernandez last week reassured bond investors that she won’t change terms on securities sold under Argentine legislation after the central bank set aside $2.3 billion for debt payments this year, of which $2 billion are for local law.
‘Important Message’
“It’s an important message to the international community because we are paying local-law maturities,” she said in an Aug. 21 speech. “We haven’t changed the terms in local law debt in 10 years and won’t start to.”
Argentina’s vow to continue paying performing bonds regardless of the court ruling had spurred speculation the government will change legislation of its New York-law exchange bonds to a jurisdiction outside the U.S.
The extra yield investors demand to own Argentine bonds over U.S. Treasuries widened 27 basis points, or 0.27 percentage point, to 1,085 basis points today, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. data.
Argentina’s five-year credit default swaps, contracts insuring the nation’s debt against non-payment, rose 230 basis points to 2,714 basis points at 10 a.m. New York time, according to data compiled by CMA Ltd. The peso fell 0.1 percent to 5.6380.
‘Pesofication’ Risk
Still, the fastest decline in central bank reserves since 2001 is spurring concern Argentina will pay its local law bonds in pesos, a process known as “pesofication.” The fair value of Argentine government bonds due 2015, called Boden 15, is 87.2 cents per dollar, compared with yesterday’s price of 95.15, according to an Aug. 9 Citigroup Inc. report.
Argentina has $15.3 billion of dollar debt due by the end of 2015 including interest, compared with $36.9 billion of reserves as of yesterday. Reserves are on track to fall to $25 billion by the end of 2015, according to Citigroup.
South America’s second biggest economy will have enough foreign currency funds to continue making payments on dollar bonds in the next three years, Barclays Plc analyst Sebastian Vargas said in a telephone interview from New York.
“We’re keeping our market weight position and reiterating our recommendation to buy Boden 15,” Vargas said. “Instead of pesofying you could simply not even pay a dime and kick the payments five years down the road. Why would you pesofy? Instead of pesofying you would simply forcibly restructure debt, but that is not in the cards.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Camila Russo in New York at [email protected]
To contact the editors responsible for this story: David Papadopoulos at [email protected]; Michael Tsang at [email protected]
The move comes after the Aug. 23 ruling, which prompted dollar-denominated local law bonds due 2017 to rally and yield 3.95 percentage points less than similar-maturity notes issued under New York rules yesterday. The gap grew to within 0.11 percentage point of the record 4.06 percentage point difference April 3. At 11.85 percent, the local-law debt yielded twice the emerging-market average, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co.
Faced with the prospect of paying the holdout creditors in full or risking a second default in 12 years, President Cristina Fernandez de Kirchner said in a national address yesterday she will offer a third swap at the same terms to owners of defaulted debt who rejected previous exchanges, as well as to holders of the restructured notes. The proposal is aimed at circumventing the U.S. court ruling without reneging on payments to the New York-law bondholders.
“There was always the expectation that if Argentina couldn’t win in court, it would find anther way to get its way, for example, by re-routing payments,” Diego Ferro, co-chief investment officer at Greylock Capital Management, which oversees $500 million in emerging-market debt including restructured Argentine bonds, said in a telephone interview. “It’s a predictable patch solution that in the end guarantees that dollar debt will be paid.”
Bonds Fall
Greylock hasn’t decided whether it’ll accept the debt swap into local law, Ferro said.
Argentina’s proposal trigged declines in the local-law bonds today. The dollar securities due 2017 fell the most in four months, plunging 2.68 cents to 85.46 cents on the dollar at 10:41 a.m. in New York. Dollar notes due 2017 sold under New York law tumbled 2.03 cents to 78.12 cents on the dollar.
The appeals court on Aug. 23 said it would delay the effect of its ruling until the U.S. Supreme Court decides whether to review the case, which may not come until the first quarter of 2014, according to law firm Shearman & Sterling LLP. The stay would be lifted if the Supreme Court doesn’t take the case putting subsequent bond payments in jeopardy of default since Argentina has said it won’t obey the court orders to pay creditors Fernandez has dubbed “vultures.”
‘Serial Payers’
The debt swap would be offered into local law debt in the same terms and currency as original bonds, according to Fernandez.
“Instead of recalcitrant debtors, we are serial payers,” Fernandez, 60, said in her speech, adding that the country has paid about $174 billion in debt since 2003. “The ruling ignored the country’s accords reached with 93 percent of holders of defaulted debt.”
She also said the ruling invalidates future debt restructurings and asked God to “illuminate” the U.S. high court.
The changing of jurisdiction on performing debt governed by international law will be voluntary and dependent on the outcome of the nation’s request for the Supreme Court to take their case, a government official, who isn’t authorized to speak publicly about the plans, said in an interview. The re-opening of the swap is intended to show the Supreme Court the nation’s willingness to pay, he said.
‘Most Pragmatic’
The Supreme Court grants only one percent of about 8,000 petitions it receives every year.
“This is the most pragmatic thing they could have done,” said Alberto Bernal, head of fixed-income research at Bulltick Capital Markets in Miami. “It’s good news for bonds because it shows total willingness to pay, even if Argentina is trying to circumvent U.S. courts.”
Banks from Credit Suisse Group AG to Barclays Plc say that investors should buy local-law bonds, which are exempt from the court orders, as default risk for debt sold abroad increases after Argentina’s appeal was rejected.
“We recommend only the shortest local-law bonds in Argentina,” said Daniel Chodos, a strategist at Credit Suisse, said in a telephone interview from New York, referring to dollar notes due 2013 and 2015. “The ruling states that the order is for the exchange bonds, which were sold under foreign law, so local law bonds shouldn’t be involved.”
‘Right Mind’
Investors will probably switch to the 2015 bonds after the government pays $2 billion of principal on the 2013 bonds next month, giving the longer notes additional support, Chodos said.
“Nobody in their right mind would resign New York protection for Argentine law,” Jorge Piedrahita, chief executive officer of Torino Capital LLC in New York, said in an e-mail. “Payments would be easily embargoed by Elliott and there’s the risk of having to get the money out of Argentina.”
Argentina in 2001 defaulted on a record $95 billion of foreign debt. Holders of about 91 percent of the bonds agreed to take new exchange bonds in 2005 and 2010, at about 30 cents on the dollar. Creditors including billionaire Paul Singer’s Elliott Management Corp. have rejected the swaps.
Fernandez last week reassured bond investors that she won’t change terms on securities sold under Argentine legislation after the central bank set aside $2.3 billion for debt payments this year, of which $2 billion are for local law.
‘Important Message’
“It’s an important message to the international community because we are paying local-law maturities,” she said in an Aug. 21 speech. “We haven’t changed the terms in local law debt in 10 years and won’t start to.”
Argentina’s vow to continue paying performing bonds regardless of the court ruling had spurred speculation the government will change legislation of its New York-law exchange bonds to a jurisdiction outside the U.S.
The extra yield investors demand to own Argentine bonds over U.S. Treasuries widened 27 basis points, or 0.27 percentage point, to 1,085 basis points today, according to JPMorgan Chase & Co. data.
Argentina’s five-year credit default swaps, contracts insuring the nation’s debt against non-payment, rose 230 basis points to 2,714 basis points at 10 a.m. New York time, according to data compiled by CMA Ltd. The peso fell 0.1 percent to 5.6380.
‘Pesofication’ Risk
Still, the fastest decline in central bank reserves since 2001 is spurring concern Argentina will pay its local law bonds in pesos, a process known as “pesofication.” The fair value of Argentine government bonds due 2015, called Boden 15, is 87.2 cents per dollar, compared with yesterday’s price of 95.15, according to an Aug. 9 Citigroup Inc. report.
Argentina has $15.3 billion of dollar debt due by the end of 2015 including interest, compared with $36.9 billion of reserves as of yesterday. Reserves are on track to fall to $25 billion by the end of 2015, according to Citigroup.
South America’s second biggest economy will have enough foreign currency funds to continue making payments on dollar bonds in the next three years, Barclays Plc analyst Sebastian Vargas said in a telephone interview from New York.
“We’re keeping our market weight position and reiterating our recommendation to buy Boden 15,” Vargas said. “Instead of pesofying you could simply not even pay a dime and kick the payments five years down the road. Why would you pesofy? Instead of pesofying you would simply forcibly restructure debt, but that is not in the cards.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Camila Russo in New York at [email protected]
To contact the editors responsible for this story: David Papadopoulos at [email protected]; Michael Tsang at [email protected]
capt.harlock
MENA IL CAMMELLO FAN CLUB
premesso che ne avevo 400k pagati 56/58 e venduti a meta' gennaio a 92/93
premesso che carib ha fatto+300% e io solo*55%, chi avesse comprato a luglio 2012 i ggb swappati e avesse venduto a luglio 2013 avrebbe fatto+500%
premesso tutto questo rispondo volentieri al buon carib
errata corrige, erano 300k non 400
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capt.harlock
MENA IL CAMMELLO FAN CLUB
occhio che io non ho scritto che l' alternativa era della grecia ma della eu e bce , quello che non era chiaro fino a poco tempo fa e' un concetto molto semplice, la bce non garantisce per nessuno degli stati membri
la scelta che e' stata fatta per la grecia e' solo poltica
la bce puo' stampare euro quanto le pare , la grecia no
2 domande facili facili
quanto pesava il debio della grecia a livello eu?
iggb non greek law quanto erano in % rispetto al debito complessivo greco?
quello che e' molto chiaro in europa ad oggi e'
1)il debito sovrano dei singoli stati non e' garantito da alcuna banca centrale
2) ti possono mettere le mani nel c/c e "prelevare" tutto quello che c'e' sopra i 100k
3) i prospetti delle obbligazioni bancarie sub e senior sono carta straccia, tutto quello che c'e' scritto e' modificabile ad insadacabile giudizio di nonsisachi che per il bene di una non ben specificata "stabilita" finanziaria" puo' espropriare i titoli a piacimento direttamente dal tuo d/t lasciandoti un biglietto della lotteria
l' europa e' una gabbia di matti
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carib
rerum cognoscere causas
su questo son d'accordo
(non a caso ho scelto un nick non europeo)
comunque, ribadisco che un titolo giurisdizione buenos aires
e uno giurisdizione NY.. non sono la stessa cosa.
su titoli di breve durata.. BA puo' anche essere preferibile.
fidarsi della legge argentina.. per un ventennio..
sembra temerario.
Ovviamente.. anche fidarsi dell'UE e' temerario..
carib
rerum cognoscere causas
El ex ministro de Economía Roberto Lavagna advirtió hoy que la decisión de reabrir por tercera vez el canje de deuda desnuda la “improvisación permanente” del Gobierno en este tema y consideró “dudoso” y “poco posible” que los acreedores acepten que el domicilio de pago se traslade ahora a Buenos Aires.
“La idea de pagar en la Caja de Valores es dudosa en un país donde existe un control de cambios muy arbitrario: nadie sabe cuándo le van a dar o no le van a dar los dólares; hoy no hay una regla clara en ese sentido”, alertó, y sostuvo que con respecto al canje “hubo claramente un abandono de estrategia y dejar pasar el tiempo”.
“La idea de pagar en la Caja de Valores es dudosa en un país donde existe un control de cambios muy arbitrario: nadie sabe cuándo le van a dar o no le van a dar los dólares; hoy no hay una regla clara en ese sentido”, alertó, y sostuvo que con respecto al canje “hubo claramente un abandono de estrategia y dejar pasar el tiempo”.
Acchiappaladri
Nuovo forumer
Mi scusi se intervengo per cercare di chiarire un paio di punti dove in perfetta buona fede, sulla base di esperienze personali limitate sulle vicende legate a Tangobond e Argentina, vedo spesso che ci sono persone che hanno maturato opinioni che non corrispondono alla realtà dei fatti.
Mi riferisco anche a quanto commentato dall'amico Capt.Harlock
1) Le casse pubbliche argentine NON sono messe bene (anche se forse nemmeno gli Argentini sanno esattamente come sono messe, con tutti i pasticci e imbrogli statistici che fanno) e almeno da un paio di anni sono in costante peggioramento, sopratutto nel senso di crisi di liquidità delle riserve in valuta forte.
Però nemmeno il più pessimista analista oggi dubita che nelle casse argentine ci siano, e ben liquidi, quei "quattro soldi"
necessari per pagare agli Holdout che hanno già vinto le cause contro l'Argentina in giro per il mondo e togliersi di torno tutte le rogne legali pregresse per i Tangobond. Parliamo di alcuni miliardi di dollari ad essere larghi.Per suoi (IMHO miopi, autolesionistici in definitiva, come stiamo vedendo) motivi politici, il governo argentino NON vuole onorare le sentenze di condanna ricevute (sia per i Tangobond che per altri crediti commerciali riconosciuti dall'ICSID):
questo è il problema di base.
Piuttosto si tagliano gli attributi che accontentare la moglie
Ovviamente ci sarebbero poi gli altri Holdout che non hanno ancora vinto cause ma che le stanno facendo o le faranno e le vinceranno (nel giro di qualche anno), ci sono altri importanti debiti esteri insoluti (con gli stati del Club di Parigi e con la spagnola REPSOL per il furto della YPF):
volendo sistemare tutto si tratta di alcune (poche !) decine di miliardi di US$, a stare larghi, e questo importo liquido nelle casse pubbliche argentine effettivamente non c'è oggi.
Però si tratta di un importo totale modesto in proporzione alle dimensioni dell'economia argentina e alle sue enormi risorsi che posso offrire garanzie anche reali INGENTI, importo che fra l'altro potrebbe essere ridotto con una trattativa in buona fede, riscadenziato e contestualmente rifinanziato in gran parte, se non integralmente, e a tassi bassi da FMI e da altri prestatori internazionali SE un nuovo governo argentino volesse cambiare politica, tornare nella legalità e riaprisi ai mercati internazionali.
Di nuovo ... l'Argentina non paga essenzialmente per sua infame, pervicace, rabbiosa scelta.
2) io conosco alcuni casi di Tangoderubati che fecero causa alla banca e PERSERO.
La mia impressione (non mi risulta che esistano statistiche) è che nei primi anni in maggioranza i Tangoderubati abbiano perso nei tribunali italiani.
E' pur vero che negli ultimi anni (quando però la morte e la prescrizione hanno eliminato molte opportunità di far causa) la giurisprudenza italiana è diventata più favorevole ai Tangoderubati, ma purtroppo non corrisponde alla realtà dei fatti ritenere che causa fatta alla banca sia causa vinta.
Insomma ... situazione delicata da valutare con attenzione caso per caso, semza faciloneria.
Dico questo senza alcuna polemica ma solo cercando di aiutare a fare chiarezza su importanti dettagli fattuali che purtroppo sono poco noti anche fra gli Italiani che seguono i titoli di stato argentini.
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Acchiappaladri
Nuovo forumer
Riguardo ai TEMPI LLLLLLUUUUUUNGHIHai ragione. Ho scritto pensando ai tempi della giustizia incivile che abbiamo nel nostro Paese
proprio la vicenda delle cause negli USA per i Tangobond mi ha fatto scoprire che la giustizia civile negli USA mica è tanto meglio di quella (vomitevole) italiana Per altri aspetti, invece non c'è partita: questo lo devo, a malincuore, riconoscere.
Acchiappaladri
Nuovo forumer
Vedo solo ora questo articolo di Investori Oggi che tentava (apprezzabilmente
) di fare un riepilogo della situazione al 25 Agosto ... fra l'altro riportando (e la cosa mi fa piacere) un mio grafico dei prezzi dei CDS 5Y sulla neocartaccia, grafico che però non è aggiornato alla data dell'articolo.Sui vari punti toccati dall'articolo, vedo ce c'è stata molta approssimazione sul tema della "prescrizione" (che nei casi in cui è legalmente possibile, ha fatto e farà sicuramente piacere all'Argentina) del debito dell'Argentina, citazione confusa che mi sembra abbia stimolato un po' di confusione qui sul forum.
In realtà, per la grande maggioranza dei crediti che sono vantati dagli Holdout per diversi (da caso a a caso) motivi tecnici già da anni avvocati specialisti del settore ci hanno spiegato che NON ESISTE PIù (o esiste dopo un tempo molto lungo ... 30 anni in Germania come ricordava Gianfranco) rischio di prescrizione degli obblighi dell'Argentina verso di loro.
Per molti Tangoderubati italiani che valutavano se fare causa alla loro banca, fino ad un paio di anni fa c'era invece molto concreto il rischio della prescrizione delle responsabilità DELLA BANCA verso di loro.
Vorrei sbagliarmi, ma ho il sospetto che in quell'articolo, citando i 10 anni, si sia fatta un po' di confusione fra le prescrizioni delle diverse responsabilità, quella del debitore e quella dell'intermediario.
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