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US Treasuries mixed after below-forecast payrolls
(Adds quotes, details on London attacks; updates prices)
NEW YORK, July 8 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices turned mixed in mostly subdued trade on Friday after the June non-farm payrolls report came in softer than expected, but not weak enough to change the interest rate outlook.
Traders and strategists said that while the attacks in London on Thursday had receded in their minds, there was little doubt that enough of a flight-to-quality sentiment remained in the market to preclude heavy selling, with investors preferring the security of U.S. government debt.
The Department of Labor said the U.S. economy generated 146,000 new jobs in June, below economists' forecasts of 188,500. But both the May and April totals were revised higher, softening the blow of June's lower-than-expected reading.
"It's very consistent with an economy that is growing at or just below trend. It does not change anything for the Fed -- they're going to raise rates again next month," said Steven Ricchiuto, chief U.S. economist at ABN AMRO in New York.
Prices on the short end of the yield curve were lower, while the longer end rose in a flattening trend traders said was unsurprising.
The two-year note <US2YT=RR>, the most sensitive to changes in the interest rate outlook, was 1/32 lower in price to yield 3.74 percent, compared with 3.73 percent on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year note <US10YT=RR> was flat, yielding 4.07 percent.
The net effect was to compress the spread between the two- and 10-year notes by 2 basis points to 32.
"If you look at the history, as long as the Fed is in a tightening mode, the curve will always flatten," said Bernard Tan, a director of fixed income at Fimat. "The number was not strong enough for the Fed to be more aggressive, and it wasn't weak enough for it to pause," he said.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise its benchmark federal funds rate that banks charge one another for overnight loans by a quarter-percentage-point to 3.50 percent at its next policy meeting on Aug. 9. It has raised rates by a quarter-point nine times since June 2004.
Five-year notes <US5YT=RR> were down 2/32 to yield 3.86 percent, compared with 3.84 percent on Thursday. The 30-year bond was yielding 4.31 percent, 1 basis point below where it ended on Thursday.
"I like the 146,000 gain -- it fits into the category of the Goldilocks scenario," said Ned Riley, the chief executive of Riley Asset Management, using a term popularized during the U.S. expansion of the 1990s to describe an economy growing at a rate that keeps inflationary risks well under control.
"It suggests companies still have some confidence in the economy, but shows a reluctance on the part of manufacturers in particular in adding jobs," Riley added, referring to June's 24,000-job decline in the factory sector.
Traders said the market's reaction to the London attacks -- a swift flight-to-safety followed by a steady unraveling of that bid -- was suggestive of a trading community that is learning to live with the threat of random violence.
But they said that even though the attacks, which killed more than 50 and injured about 700, were not the subject of much market chatter on Friday, the very real possibility of a future attack remains priced into trading action.
"Something can still happen. That terror bid will remain for a while," Fimat's Tan said.
((Reporting by Oliver Ludwig; Editing by Dan Grebler; Reuters Messaging: [email protected]; e-mail [email protected]; Tel: 646 223-6233))
--------------MARKET SNAPSHOT AT 1454 GMT ------------------
Dec Eurodollar <EDZ5> 94.80 (+0.00)
June T-Bond <USM5> 117-15/32 (-04/32)
June 10-year note <TYM5> 112-16/32 (-05/32)
Change vs Current
Nyk yield
Three-month bills <US3MT=RR> 3.09 (+0.02) 3.156
Six-month bills <US6MT=RR> 3.28 (-0.01) 3.375
Two-year note <US2YT=RR> 99-24/32 (-02/32) 3.753
Five-year note <US5YT=RR> 98-31/32 (-02/32) 3.858
10-year note <US10YT=RR> 100-15/32 (unch) 4.066
30-year bond <US30YT=RR> 116-12/32 (+06/32) 4.313
US Treasuries mixed after below-forecast payrolls
(Adds quotes, details on London attacks; updates prices)
NEW YORK, July 8 (Reuters) - U.S. Treasury debt prices turned mixed in mostly subdued trade on Friday after the June non-farm payrolls report came in softer than expected, but not weak enough to change the interest rate outlook.
Traders and strategists said that while the attacks in London on Thursday had receded in their minds, there was little doubt that enough of a flight-to-quality sentiment remained in the market to preclude heavy selling, with investors preferring the security of U.S. government debt.
The Department of Labor said the U.S. economy generated 146,000 new jobs in June, below economists' forecasts of 188,500. But both the May and April totals were revised higher, softening the blow of June's lower-than-expected reading.
"It's very consistent with an economy that is growing at or just below trend. It does not change anything for the Fed -- they're going to raise rates again next month," said Steven Ricchiuto, chief U.S. economist at ABN AMRO in New York.
Prices on the short end of the yield curve were lower, while the longer end rose in a flattening trend traders said was unsurprising.
The two-year note <US2YT=RR>, the most sensitive to changes in the interest rate outlook, was 1/32 lower in price to yield 3.74 percent, compared with 3.73 percent on Thursday. The benchmark 10-year note <US10YT=RR> was flat, yielding 4.07 percent.
The net effect was to compress the spread between the two- and 10-year notes by 2 basis points to 32.
"If you look at the history, as long as the Fed is in a tightening mode, the curve will always flatten," said Bernard Tan, a director of fixed income at Fimat. "The number was not strong enough for the Fed to be more aggressive, and it wasn't weak enough for it to pause," he said.
The Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise its benchmark federal funds rate that banks charge one another for overnight loans by a quarter-percentage-point to 3.50 percent at its next policy meeting on Aug. 9. It has raised rates by a quarter-point nine times since June 2004.
Five-year notes <US5YT=RR> were down 2/32 to yield 3.86 percent, compared with 3.84 percent on Thursday. The 30-year bond was yielding 4.31 percent, 1 basis point below where it ended on Thursday.
"I like the 146,000 gain -- it fits into the category of the Goldilocks scenario," said Ned Riley, the chief executive of Riley Asset Management, using a term popularized during the U.S. expansion of the 1990s to describe an economy growing at a rate that keeps inflationary risks well under control.
"It suggests companies still have some confidence in the economy, but shows a reluctance on the part of manufacturers in particular in adding jobs," Riley added, referring to June's 24,000-job decline in the factory sector.
Traders said the market's reaction to the London attacks -- a swift flight-to-safety followed by a steady unraveling of that bid -- was suggestive of a trading community that is learning to live with the threat of random violence.
But they said that even though the attacks, which killed more than 50 and injured about 700, were not the subject of much market chatter on Friday, the very real possibility of a future attack remains priced into trading action.
"Something can still happen. That terror bid will remain for a while," Fimat's Tan said.
((Reporting by Oliver Ludwig; Editing by Dan Grebler; Reuters Messaging: [email protected]; e-mail [email protected]; Tel: 646 223-6233))
--------------MARKET SNAPSHOT AT 1454 GMT ------------------
Dec Eurodollar <EDZ5> 94.80 (+0.00)
June T-Bond <USM5> 117-15/32 (-04/32)
June 10-year note <TYM5> 112-16/32 (-05/32)
Change vs Current
Nyk yield
Three-month bills <US3MT=RR> 3.09 (+0.02) 3.156
Six-month bills <US6MT=RR> 3.28 (-0.01) 3.375
Two-year note <US2YT=RR> 99-24/32 (-02/32) 3.753
Five-year note <US5YT=RR> 98-31/32 (-02/32) 3.858
10-year note <US10YT=RR> 100-15/32 (unch) 4.066
30-year bond <US30YT=RR> 116-12/32 (+06/32) 4.313
