Bund, Tbond of the Hot Hand fine del Capitalismo(vm98)
- Creatore Discussione dan24
- Data di Inizio
f4f
翠鸟科
Fernando'S ha scritto:tu, come tanti, usate le bande di bollinger in un modo che non capisco.
Il raggiungimento della banda superiore non ha un significato di iper comprato come per esempio con l'Rsi
in quanto le bollinger sono costruite sulla volatitlita del titolo
e significa solo che il titolo, salendo, ha aumentato la sua vola.
Infatti quando le bollinger si restringono è perchè la volatilita diminuisce e quando si aprono è perchè la volatilità aumenta
e la loro rottura è solo un indice della volatilità raggiunta e ovviamente dipende dalla taratura
...quindi, a parer mio, le bande, da sole, non dicono quando comperare e quando vendere, spero di essermi ben spiegato
un saluto
son d'accordo
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
leo-kondor ha scritto:buona domenica a tutti intanto
allora, tanto per partecipare (se no ho la senzazione che chiedo e basta, o mi lamento e basta), vi posto il mio grafico giornaliero del russel
E' arrivato alle bande superiori, da qui penso debba scendere (chiaramente farà il contrario ...), così almeno sembra
cosa ne pensate?
per quanto riguarda chi è short (come me), non credo sia il momento più adatto per chiudere, io almeno a questo punto tengo e attendo uno storno quantomeno fino alla media centrale per limitare le sanguinose perdite....
Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1170585181russel.jpg
Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1170589038russel2.jpg
Motivazioni perchè i mercati scendano ce ne sono molte ma personalmente non le bollinger che non sono neanche confermate dall'envelope sulle medie mobili.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
Nell'articolo sotto citato poi vi sono diversi degli elementi che caratterizzano coloro che hanno una visione bullish del mercato.
Personalmente preferisco un approccio prudenziale pure alle visioni bullish sebbene al momento siano le più sensate.
I mercati segnalano comunque un'alta confidenza degli stessi (presenti o non presenti gli individuali) al proseguimento del movimento in corso e questo deve indurre ad una certa prudenza operativa anche se in favore di trend.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-6836.htm
Personalmente preferisco un approccio prudenziale pure alle visioni bullish sebbene al momento siano le più sensate.
I mercati segnalano comunque un'alta confidenza degli stessi (presenti o non presenti gli individuali) al proseguimento del movimento in corso e questo deve indurre ad una certa prudenza operativa anche se in favore di trend.
http://www.safehaven.com/article-6836.htm
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
As per the notes on Wednesday in our subscriber/member section, Wednesday?s intraday push above the 1431 weekly projected resistance high confirmed a 10 day cycle low in place at the 1/26/07 bottom of 1416.96 - and indicated that the upward phase of this component was back in force. This cycle also then confirmed an upside projection to 1452.16 - 1456.88 SPX CASH - which was nearly hit with Friday?s spike up to an intraday high of 1449.33. Volume on Friday came in firmly contracted from Thursday?s levels, which is at least a minor bearish signal as we head into Monday of next week.
For the 20 day cycle, this component is also now confirmed to have bottomed at the same 1/26/07 low, which would put this component - as with the smaller 10 day - as 5 trading days along at Friday?s close. The cycle has just registered the pattern of a ?higher-low/higher-high?; and, when seen in the past, the minimum rally on the following up phase has taken 6 trading days before completing. However, a full 90% of the have not peaked before the 8 day mark, which infers that we will see higher numbers made next week - and ideally no peak with this cycle forming prior to 2/7/07. In terms of price, we already had the confirmed 10 day upside projection to 1452.16 - 1456.88, though about 80% of the 20 day up phases in this position have not peaked before a 3.3% rally was seen - which here would equate to 1462 SPX CASH. First support has now moved up to prior resistance, 1431-1433 SPX CASH, and would try and hold any new minor down phase if the 20 day up phase is going to remain intact.
The 45-day Cycle
Stepping back just a bit, the 45-day cycle is currently phased to the 1/8/07 swing low of 1403.97, which puts this particular cycle at 18 days along, currently labeled as bullish - where it will remain for another week or two. Noted in some of the longer-term outlooks, in terms of price statistics with this component the minimum rallies with this cycle in recent years had been in the range of 3.4% or better, which indicated the possibility that a test of the 1448-1451 region would be seen. In last week?s weekly outlook I noted that the key level to confirm the downward phase of this component to be in force would be a daily close below 1418.29 - and above the same and the index could continue to make higher highs. Thus, this cycle did what it had to do on the most recent correction lower, in that it held above this level on a closing basis.
Mid-Term Outlook
For the mid-term, the larger cycles (18 month and below) are currently projecting a larger bottom to be made in the March - May, 2007 timeframe. Ideally, this correction will see prices retracing back to/towards the 200-day moving average on this index, with long-term support now moving up to the 1330-1360 level. So far, no larger peak has actually been confirmed with price - though our longer-term cyclic ?Trendicator? has recently turned lower and has signaled that momentum has recently made a shift to the downside. However, for price to confirm a larger cycle peak in place, a daily close below 1419.33 would be our top confirmation that a correction back to or below the rising 200 day moving average is in progress. Should that correction develop in the weeks/months ahead, then the anticipation is that higher highs will again be seen on the following swing up, with the all-time high of 1552 acting as a potential magnet to the upside later this year.
NASDAQ 100 CASH
Several weeks back there were solid indications that the NDX would not get past ?swing resistance? on the daily chart (1840-1860), as mid-term breadth indexes like the Summation index were diverging solidly against price. Shortly after the initial decline off the top, the 45-day cycle confirmed a downside projection to 1729.40 - 1750.60, which fell just short on the recent swing down - though this target is still valid as of this writing.
Stepping back just a bit, the index is still holding above daily trendline support (currently around 1780, closing basis), which would need to be closed below to indicate a larger 360-day down phase is in control. If and when confirmed, a normal down phase correction with this component would be expected to be in the range of 9.4% or better. Thus, if the 1847 swing top ends up being the peak for this cycle on this index, then a normal correction could take the NDX all the way down to the 1673 level or lower. All said then, for the mid-term the downside risk is currently to the mid-to-high 1600?s or lower, while the upside looks to continue to be limited by noted swing resistance. For the short-term, however, a test or move above the 1810 swing top is not out of the question in the days ahead - though for me the only requirement for the current bearish picture is that this index not exceed it?s 1847 swing top seen on 1/16/07.
Jim Curry
Market Turns Advisory
For the 20 day cycle, this component is also now confirmed to have bottomed at the same 1/26/07 low, which would put this component - as with the smaller 10 day - as 5 trading days along at Friday?s close. The cycle has just registered the pattern of a ?higher-low/higher-high?; and, when seen in the past, the minimum rally on the following up phase has taken 6 trading days before completing. However, a full 90% of the have not peaked before the 8 day mark, which infers that we will see higher numbers made next week - and ideally no peak with this cycle forming prior to 2/7/07. In terms of price, we already had the confirmed 10 day upside projection to 1452.16 - 1456.88, though about 80% of the 20 day up phases in this position have not peaked before a 3.3% rally was seen - which here would equate to 1462 SPX CASH. First support has now moved up to prior resistance, 1431-1433 SPX CASH, and would try and hold any new minor down phase if the 20 day up phase is going to remain intact.
The 45-day Cycle
Stepping back just a bit, the 45-day cycle is currently phased to the 1/8/07 swing low of 1403.97, which puts this particular cycle at 18 days along, currently labeled as bullish - where it will remain for another week or two. Noted in some of the longer-term outlooks, in terms of price statistics with this component the minimum rallies with this cycle in recent years had been in the range of 3.4% or better, which indicated the possibility that a test of the 1448-1451 region would be seen. In last week?s weekly outlook I noted that the key level to confirm the downward phase of this component to be in force would be a daily close below 1418.29 - and above the same and the index could continue to make higher highs. Thus, this cycle did what it had to do on the most recent correction lower, in that it held above this level on a closing basis.
Mid-Term Outlook
For the mid-term, the larger cycles (18 month and below) are currently projecting a larger bottom to be made in the March - May, 2007 timeframe. Ideally, this correction will see prices retracing back to/towards the 200-day moving average on this index, with long-term support now moving up to the 1330-1360 level. So far, no larger peak has actually been confirmed with price - though our longer-term cyclic ?Trendicator? has recently turned lower and has signaled that momentum has recently made a shift to the downside. However, for price to confirm a larger cycle peak in place, a daily close below 1419.33 would be our top confirmation that a correction back to or below the rising 200 day moving average is in progress. Should that correction develop in the weeks/months ahead, then the anticipation is that higher highs will again be seen on the following swing up, with the all-time high of 1552 acting as a potential magnet to the upside later this year.
NASDAQ 100 CASH
Several weeks back there were solid indications that the NDX would not get past ?swing resistance? on the daily chart (1840-1860), as mid-term breadth indexes like the Summation index were diverging solidly against price. Shortly after the initial decline off the top, the 45-day cycle confirmed a downside projection to 1729.40 - 1750.60, which fell just short on the recent swing down - though this target is still valid as of this writing.
Stepping back just a bit, the index is still holding above daily trendline support (currently around 1780, closing basis), which would need to be closed below to indicate a larger 360-day down phase is in control. If and when confirmed, a normal down phase correction with this component would be expected to be in the range of 9.4% or better. Thus, if the 1847 swing top ends up being the peak for this cycle on this index, then a normal correction could take the NDX all the way down to the 1673 level or lower. All said then, for the mid-term the downside risk is currently to the mid-to-high 1600?s or lower, while the upside looks to continue to be limited by noted swing resistance. For the short-term, however, a test or move above the 1810 swing top is not out of the question in the days ahead - though for me the only requirement for the current bearish picture is that this index not exceed it?s 1847 swing top seen on 1/16/07.
Jim Curry
Market Turns Advisory
f4f
翠鸟科
goooooood morning bbanda
questi qui di Gipa la pensano come me
currently projecting a larger bottom to be made in the March - May, 2007 timeframe. Ideally, this correction will see prices retracing back to/towards the 200-day moving average on this index, with long-term support now moving up to the 1330-1360 level. So far, no larger peak has actually been confirmed with price - though our longer-term cyclic ?Trendicator? has recently turned lower and has signaled that momentum has recently made a shift to the downside. However, for price to confirm a larger cycle peak in place, a daily close below 1419.33 would be our top confirmation that a correction back to or below the rising 200 day moving average is in progress. Should that correction develop in the weeks/months ahead, then the anticipation is that higher highs will again be seen on the following swing up, with the all-time high of 1552 acting as a potential magnet to the upside later this year.
quindi, sbagliano
questi qui di Gipa la pensano come me
currently projecting a larger bottom to be made in the March - May, 2007 timeframe. Ideally, this correction will see prices retracing back to/towards the 200-day moving average on this index, with long-term support now moving up to the 1330-1360 level. So far, no larger peak has actually been confirmed with price - though our longer-term cyclic ?Trendicator? has recently turned lower and has signaled that momentum has recently made a shift to the downside. However, for price to confirm a larger cycle peak in place, a daily close below 1419.33 would be our top confirmation that a correction back to or below the rising 200 day moving average is in progress. Should that correction develop in the weeks/months ahead, then the anticipation is that higher highs will again be seen on the following swing up, with the all-time high of 1552 acting as a potential magnet to the upside later this year.
quindi, sbagliano
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