evidentemente nessun crede più molto alle periodiche dichiarazioni rialzatassi della BOJ
Yen Advances Versus Dollar, Pound, Euro on Rate-Gap Speculation
By Aaron Pan and Ron Harui
Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The yen climbed against the dollar, pound and the euro on speculation Japan's interest-rate gap with the U.K. and Australia won't widen.
The currency rebounded from a 14-year low versus the pound after Bank of England Governor Mervyn King said inflation will slow. It rose from the weakest since 1997 versus Australia's currency, where the government said prices fell for the first time in eight years. Investors have been pushing the yen lower by borrowing in Japan to buy assets in countries with higher rates.
``The Aussie dollar and the pound sold off aggressively against the yen, particularly after dovish comments from Mervyn King,'' said Neil Jones, head of European hedge-fund sales in London for Mizuho Financial Group Inc., Japan's second-biggest lender.
The yen traded at 121.44 against the dollar as of 7:25 a.m. in New York, from 121.63 late yesterday. On Jan. 22 it reached 121.80, the weakest in almost four years. The yen traded at 157.96 per euro, up from as low as 158.62, the weakest since the European currency's 1999 debut, and 158.43 late yesterday.
The Bank of Japan has held benchmark rates at 0.25 percent, the lowest of any major economy, since July. Key rates in the U.S. and U.K. are 5.25 percent, and 6.25 percent in Australia. Borrowing costs in the 13-nation euro region are 3.5 percent.
Policy makers at the Bank of England expect inflation to fall back in the second half, ``possibly quite sharply,'' King told the Birmingham Chambers of Commerce in central England.
The Australian dollar fell 1.2 percent against the dollar as data showing a drop in prices damped speculation the central bank will push borrowing costs higher.
Cooling Inflation
``Australia's bad inflation data first triggered yen- buying,'' said Koichi Kano, a currency trader in Tokyo at Citigroup Inc. ``It's impact spilled over'' into yen buying against other high-yielding currencies such as the U.K. pound.
The consumer price index dropped 0.1 percent in the three months ended Dec. 31, the Bureau of Statistics said in Sydney.
Futures traders have been increasing bets the yen would fall, figures from the Washington-based Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed Jan. 19. The data is sometimes used as a contrary indicator.
The difference in the number of wagers by hedge funds and other large speculators on a yen drop compared with those on a gain -- so-called net shorts -- was a record 138,146 on Jan. 16.
Japan's currency yesterday reached the weakest since 1997 against the Australian dollar and the lowest since 1992 versus the British pound as investors increased so-called carry trades, where they borrow in yen to buy higher-yielding currencies.
`Fairly Bad Night'
``It's been a fairly bad night for the carry trade,'' said Steve Pearson, head of currency strategy at HBOS Plc in London.
Earlier today, the yen slid to a record low versus the euro on speculation a report on German business confidence will add to pressure on the European Central Bank to raise borrowing costs.
The euro traded at $1.3005 against the dollar from $1.3026 yesterday, when it reached a two-week high of $1.3044.
Confidence in Germany rose to 109, the highest since the country's unification in 1990, according to the median estimate of 43 economists Bloomberg surveyed before tomorrow's report from the Ifo institute in Munich.
``The yen is facing position adjustment after its rapid decline,'' said Yuji Saito, a senior currency dealer at Societe Generale SA in Tokyo. The movement is ``ahead of key events later this week, including tomorrow's Ifo data in Germany.''
The dollar was little changed before a U.S. report tomorrow that will probably show sales of existing homes fell last month, sparking concern other parts of the economy will also weaken.
Soft Home Sales
``The dollar may be sold in response to soft home sales,'' said Masanobu Ishikawa, general manager of foreign exchange at Tokyo Forex & Ueda Harlow Ltd. ``The housing market held back the U.S. economy last year. Evidence this will continue may cause some traders to reduce bets for dollar gains.''
Sales of previously owned homes, which account for about 85 percent of the market, declined to an annual rate of 6.25 million units in December from 6.28 million in the prior month, according to the median of 62 estimates in a Bloomberg survey.
Purchases were at a two-year low of 6.21 million in September. The National Association of Realtors is scheduled to release the data tomorrow at 10 a.m. in Washington.