f4f ha scritto:
quale probabilità attribuisci a questo scenario?
seriamente
Attualmente il 5% perchè penso che Trichet abbassi i tassi
Wed, 5 Mar, 10:56 GMT
DATAWATCH Euro zone PMIs confirm growth slowing despite services rebound
PARIS (Thomson IM) - Euro zone purchasing managers' data confirm that the economy is losing momentum in the first quarter despite rises in some indices in February, economists said.
The February purchasing managers index for the services sector was confirmed at 52.3, unchanged from the provisional estimate and up from the 4-1/2 year low low of 50.6 recorded in January.
The composite PMI, which incorporates the services and manufacturing surveys, was revised up slightly to 52.8 from the provisional figure of 52.7. The composite index also recovered from a January low, climbing 1.0 from the January reading of 51.8.
But the upturn was simply the result of a short-term bounce in the services PMI after it fell sharply in January as a result of steep falls in equity markets and the data are still consistent with the view that the underlying trend in economic activity is downward, economists said.
'The final services PMI data provide some comfort that conditions in the sector did not worsen in February following the financial market turmoil of January, but the rate of growth remains very weak, especially compared to the buoyancy seen last summer,' said Jacques Cailloux of Royal Bank of Scotland, which publishes the PMI surveys.
'The trend is very much downwards, indicative of the domestic economy in the euro zone losing momentum,' said Ken Wattret of BNP Paribas.
'Service sector activity improved appreciably in February, but this needs to be put into perspective. The service sector was hit significantly in January by particularly elevated financial market turmoil, and the business activity index was still at its second lowest level for 4-1/2 years in February,' said Howard Archer of Global Insight.
The composite index was still the second lowest recorded in the past 30 months, and is consistent with below potential growth in the euro zone, economists said.
The final PMIs show some easing of price pressures in the services sector, which may reassure the European Central Bank.
The services prices charged component fell to 52.0 in February from 53.6 in January, while the input prices component eased to 60.6 from 61.5.
'Softer activity is diluting service companies' pricing power,' said Archer.
The manufacturing survey had pointed to rising inflation pressures, but the easing of price tensions in the services survey outweighed these and inflation indicators in the composite survey eased.
The composite input prices measure declined to 62.6 in February from 62.9 in January, while the output prices measure fell to 53.6 from 54.3.
The services PMIs pointed to a similar divergence between the main euro zone countries as shown by the manufacturing surveys, with France and Germany holding up well while Spain and Italy suffer.
The French services PMI rose to 58.2 from 56.6, while the German reading recovered to 52.2 from 49.2.
But the indices for Italy and Spain remained well below the 50 dividing line between expansion and contraction.
The Italian services PMI fell to 47.2 in February from 47.9 in January, reaching its lowest level since the index was created in 1998.
The Spanish services PMI edged up to 46.1 from 44.2, but this is still the second lowest level on record. It plummeted 6.7 points in January.
'Particularly of concern is that only France has seen service sector growth hold up on last year's pace, with Italy and Spain contracting at worrying rates,' said Cailloux of Royal Bank of Scotland.
Dominic Bryant of BNP Paribas said the data suggest that Spanish growth will slow sharply to around 2.0 pct this year, with worse to follow in 2009.
'The final PMI data reveal a worrying variation in growth trends within the euro area which appears to become more entrenched. Both Italy and Spain are experiencing falling levels of private sector economic activity and growth in Germany remains well below that seen prior to last autumn's slowdown, which is in turn helping to alleviate inflationary pressures in those counties. On the other hand, France has seen only a modest easing in the rate of expansion from last year's highs,' said Cailloux.
steve.whitehouse@thomson.com
