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Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
The euro-zone bond market was little changed during the morning session,
although the ZEW economic sentiment index exceeded expectations, rising to 21.3
in June from 18.7 in May, boosted by the European Central Bank's June 5 rate
cut.
The market largely ignored news that Fitch Ratings affirmed Germany's AAA
credit rating with a stable outlook. Intra-euro-zone spreads were also steady.
But the release of the U.S. consumer price index in the early afternoon
pushed bunds down sharply and triggered a rise in yields across the euro-zone
curve.
The U.S. CPI was unchanged on the month in May, and the core CPI rose 0.3%.
Analysts had expected a 0.1% fall in the CPI and a 0.1% rise in the core rate.
"The strong CPI has taken some of the Fed rate cut premium out," said Ian
Douglas, fixed-income strategist at UBS Warburg.
Participants took profits in the euro-zone market, but dealers said the
downward trend isn't expected to last, as ECB rate cut expectations remain
intact.
Yields were five to eight basis points higher across the euro curve, with
five-year maturities rising the most, on a correction from their recent
outperformance.
Late Tuesday, the two- to 10-year German spread was 158 basis points, one
basis point wider than late Monday.
The stronger stock markets in Europe have added to pressure on bond prices
Tuesday. However, late in the session, the French CAC-40 was up only 0.26% and
the German Dax was 0.22% higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down
0.34% at 9286.89.
The euro was at $1.1817, down from $1.1865 at 0630 GMT and $1.1825 late
Monday in New York.
2.50% Schatz of '05: 100.92 dn 0.08 yld: 1.96% vs 1.91%
3.00% Bobl of '08: 101.35 dn 0.33 yld: 2.70% vs 2.62%
4.50% Bund of '13: 107.65 dn 0.48 yld: 3.54% vs 3.48%
4.75% Bund of '34: 104.62 dn 0.98 yld: 4.47% vs 4.41%
2-30 Year spread: 251 BPs Vs 250 BPs
10-Yr Yield Spread To U.S.: 30 bp vs n/a
Eurex September Bund future: 118.97 dn 0.26
Eurex September Bobl future: 114.51 dn 0.19
10-Yr Yield spreads to Germany:
France - 0.05 vs 0.05 Italy - 0.19 vs 0.19
Belgium - 0.11 vs 0.11 Spain - 0.08 vs 0.07
Netherlands - 0.07 vs 0.07
Il grafico è stato sgrafignato da sor Pierrone
although the ZEW economic sentiment index exceeded expectations, rising to 21.3
in June from 18.7 in May, boosted by the European Central Bank's June 5 rate
cut.
The market largely ignored news that Fitch Ratings affirmed Germany's AAA
credit rating with a stable outlook. Intra-euro-zone spreads were also steady.
But the release of the U.S. consumer price index in the early afternoon
pushed bunds down sharply and triggered a rise in yields across the euro-zone
curve.
The U.S. CPI was unchanged on the month in May, and the core CPI rose 0.3%.
Analysts had expected a 0.1% fall in the CPI and a 0.1% rise in the core rate.
"The strong CPI has taken some of the Fed rate cut premium out," said Ian
Douglas, fixed-income strategist at UBS Warburg.
Participants took profits in the euro-zone market, but dealers said the
downward trend isn't expected to last, as ECB rate cut expectations remain
intact.
Yields were five to eight basis points higher across the euro curve, with
five-year maturities rising the most, on a correction from their recent
outperformance.
Late Tuesday, the two- to 10-year German spread was 158 basis points, one
basis point wider than late Monday.
The stronger stock markets in Europe have added to pressure on bond prices
Tuesday. However, late in the session, the French CAC-40 was up only 0.26% and
the German Dax was 0.22% higher. The Dow Jones Industrial Average was down
0.34% at 9286.89.
The euro was at $1.1817, down from $1.1865 at 0630 GMT and $1.1825 late
Monday in New York.
2.50% Schatz of '05: 100.92 dn 0.08 yld: 1.96% vs 1.91%
3.00% Bobl of '08: 101.35 dn 0.33 yld: 2.70% vs 2.62%
4.50% Bund of '13: 107.65 dn 0.48 yld: 3.54% vs 3.48%
4.75% Bund of '34: 104.62 dn 0.98 yld: 4.47% vs 4.41%
2-30 Year spread: 251 BPs Vs 250 BPs
10-Yr Yield Spread To U.S.: 30 bp vs n/a
Eurex September Bund future: 118.97 dn 0.26
Eurex September Bobl future: 114.51 dn 0.19
10-Yr Yield spreads to Germany:
France - 0.05 vs 0.05 Italy - 0.19 vs 0.19
Belgium - 0.11 vs 0.11 Spain - 0.08 vs 0.07
Netherlands - 0.07 vs 0.07
Il grafico è stato sgrafignato da sor Pierrone
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
NEW YORK (Dow Jones)--The rising yields of U.S. Treasurys over the past two
days triggered more selling in government securities around the world and sent
Treasury prices mostly lower again Wednesday morning.
Computer models measuring market momentum in hedge funds and other investment
firms appeared to have turned negative enough to trigger selling programs in
government securities in overnight trading, participants said.
In the selloffs Monday and Tuesday, the benchmark 10-year note yield jumped
to 3.26% from a historic low of 3.08%, crossing important technical levels.
"What we've seen over the last couple of days is significant enough to
suggest the market will back up (in yields)," said Niall O'Connor, technical
strategist at J.P. Morgan in New York.
Andrew Brenner, head of institutional fixed income at Investec Ernst in New
York, said opportunistic investors have been closely following market
sentiment. And "when you have this trend they will hop on it," he said.
The selloff Tuesday was led by German bunds, where 10-year bund yield surged
by 13 basis points. Even the severely depressed 10-year Japanese government
bond yield moved up by 5 basis points.
Selling in Treasurys continued early Wednesday morning and was heaviest
around 8 a.m. EDT (1200 GMT), in sympathy with the market movements in Europe.
Prices recovered somewhat later in the morning in New York trading, but
remained mostly lower.
At 9:20 a.m. EDT (1320 GMT), the benchmark 10-year note was down 9/32 at 102
24/32 to yield 3.30%. The 30-year bond was down 19/32 at 116 20/32 to yield
4.34%.
The five-year note was down 3/32 at 101 24/32 to yield 2.25%, while the
two-year note was up 1/32 at 100 2/32 to yield 1.21%, and the three-year note
was unchanged at 101 13/32 to yield 1.50%.
Despite the third straight day of selling, analysts say the market is
correcting the heated price levels and high expectation of a large rate cut by
the Federal Reserve next week, rather than at the beginning of a selling trend.
O'Connor said investors have been booking profits from Treasurys and
allocating some funds into equities.
However, "there's not enough evidence to suggest that it's cyclical top (in
price)," he said.
He expects the 10-year note's yield to move up to around 3.45% to 3.50% in
the near term.
There are no major economic data scheduled for Wednesday. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average is down 76 points to 9246.
-By Joy C. Shaw; Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2137; [email protected]
days triggered more selling in government securities around the world and sent
Treasury prices mostly lower again Wednesday morning.
Computer models measuring market momentum in hedge funds and other investment
firms appeared to have turned negative enough to trigger selling programs in
government securities in overnight trading, participants said.
In the selloffs Monday and Tuesday, the benchmark 10-year note yield jumped
to 3.26% from a historic low of 3.08%, crossing important technical levels.
"What we've seen over the last couple of days is significant enough to
suggest the market will back up (in yields)," said Niall O'Connor, technical
strategist at J.P. Morgan in New York.
Andrew Brenner, head of institutional fixed income at Investec Ernst in New
York, said opportunistic investors have been closely following market
sentiment. And "when you have this trend they will hop on it," he said.
The selloff Tuesday was led by German bunds, where 10-year bund yield surged
by 13 basis points. Even the severely depressed 10-year Japanese government
bond yield moved up by 5 basis points.
Selling in Treasurys continued early Wednesday morning and was heaviest
around 8 a.m. EDT (1200 GMT), in sympathy with the market movements in Europe.
Prices recovered somewhat later in the morning in New York trading, but
remained mostly lower.
At 9:20 a.m. EDT (1320 GMT), the benchmark 10-year note was down 9/32 at 102
24/32 to yield 3.30%. The 30-year bond was down 19/32 at 116 20/32 to yield
4.34%.
The five-year note was down 3/32 at 101 24/32 to yield 2.25%, while the
two-year note was up 1/32 at 100 2/32 to yield 1.21%, and the three-year note
was unchanged at 101 13/32 to yield 1.50%.
Despite the third straight day of selling, analysts say the market is
correcting the heated price levels and high expectation of a large rate cut by
the Federal Reserve next week, rather than at the beginning of a selling trend.
O'Connor said investors have been booking profits from Treasurys and
allocating some funds into equities.
However, "there's not enough evidence to suggest that it's cyclical top (in
price)," he said.
He expects the 10-year note's yield to move up to around 3.45% to 3.50% in
the near term.
There are no major economic data scheduled for Wednesday. The Dow Jones
Industrial Average is down 76 points to 9246.
-By Joy C. Shaw; Dow Jones Newswires; 201-938-2137; [email protected]
pierrone
Forumer attivo
aggiornamento e ripulitura del grafico.
operando sull'azionario, non mi piace molto la relativa debolezza del rialzo azionario rispetto al crollo del bund. Nelle scorse settimane mentre il bund galoppava al rialzo la tenuta dell'azionario mi faceva confidare in un "botto" azionario al primo storno del bund, come poi c'è stato. Ora la mia paura è che un probabile rimbalzo del bund si accompagni a un brutto crollo dell'azionario
operando sull'azionario, non mi piace molto la relativa debolezza del rialzo azionario rispetto al crollo del bund. Nelle scorse settimane mentre il bund galoppava al rialzo la tenuta dell'azionario mi faceva confidare in un "botto" azionario al primo storno del bund, come poi c'è stato. Ora la mia paura è che un probabile rimbalzo del bund si accompagni a un brutto crollo dell'azionario
inth€m
zunino 6 grande!
grazie pier
si può condividere ciò che dici..
solo che la tenuta degli usa di stasera mi ha dato da pensare bene..
insomma domani indice fed filadelfia alle 18.. scadenze venerdì.. mercoledì probabile taglio.. andiamo verso le trimestrali di luglio..
tutto troppo difficile da decifrare ..
di vero c'è che in molti anche in usa hanno azioni a prezzi altini.. quindi il texano vuole far in modo di assicurarsi la rielezione anche attraverso la ripresa delle borse..
si può condividere ciò che dici..
solo che la tenuta degli usa di stasera mi ha dato da pensare bene..
insomma domani indice fed filadelfia alle 18.. scadenze venerdì.. mercoledì probabile taglio.. andiamo verso le trimestrali di luglio..
tutto troppo difficile da decifrare ..
di vero c'è che in molti anche in usa hanno azioni a prezzi altini.. quindi il texano vuole far in modo di assicurarsi la rielezione anche attraverso la ripresa delle borse..
Fleursdumal
फूल की बुराई
FRANKFURT (Dow Jones)--Euro-zone government bond prices are higher late
Wednesday ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
At 1500 GMT, the September bund future traded at 118.14, up 0.23 from
Tuesday's close. The benchmark 10-year bund was at 106.76, up 0.28 from late
Tuesday, yielding 3.64% from 3.68%.
Economic data releases provided mixed signals to the market, keeping trade
volatile and nervous ahead of the Fed announcement, which will come after
European markets close, at 1815 GMT.
Stronger-than-expected German and Italian business confidence data, and in
particular U.S. new and existing home sales, pressured the market lower.
On the other hand, a rate cut by the Norwegian central bank, below-forecast
U.S. durable goods orders data, weak equity markets and expectations for a Fed
rate cut provided support for bonds.
Traders said gains, especially after the weak durable goods orders data, were
magnified by technical stops being triggered as many were short in the market.
But overall, no aggressive positions are being taken right now.
A Fed rate cut of 25 basis points is widely expected, and fully priced in by
the markets, traders said.
"A surprise would be if the Fed goes for a 50-basis-point cut or does
nothing," a Munich-based trader said. "If the Fed does a 25-basis-point cut it
will be neither fish nor fowl. We may move slightly higher, but will probably
correct somewhat after that, depending on the statement."
He added that an opposite scenario would be likely in case of unchanged rates
- bonds would probably fall first, but then recover on speculation of rate cuts
yet to come.
"The worst would be if the Fed cuts by half a point because although we'd
move higher at the open, I think later bonds will correct sharply as people
will perceive no further room for maneuver on interest rates," he said.
Wednesday ahead of the U.S. Federal Reserve interest rate decision.
At 1500 GMT, the September bund future traded at 118.14, up 0.23 from
Tuesday's close. The benchmark 10-year bund was at 106.76, up 0.28 from late
Tuesday, yielding 3.64% from 3.68%.
Economic data releases provided mixed signals to the market, keeping trade
volatile and nervous ahead of the Fed announcement, which will come after
European markets close, at 1815 GMT.
Stronger-than-expected German and Italian business confidence data, and in
particular U.S. new and existing home sales, pressured the market lower.
On the other hand, a rate cut by the Norwegian central bank, below-forecast
U.S. durable goods orders data, weak equity markets and expectations for a Fed
rate cut provided support for bonds.
Traders said gains, especially after the weak durable goods orders data, were
magnified by technical stops being triggered as many were short in the market.
But overall, no aggressive positions are being taken right now.
A Fed rate cut of 25 basis points is widely expected, and fully priced in by
the markets, traders said.
"A surprise would be if the Fed goes for a 50-basis-point cut or does
nothing," a Munich-based trader said. "If the Fed does a 25-basis-point cut it
will be neither fish nor fowl. We may move slightly higher, but will probably
correct somewhat after that, depending on the statement."
He added that an opposite scenario would be likely in case of unchanged rates
- bonds would probably fall first, but then recover on speculation of rate cuts
yet to come.
"The worst would be if the Fed cuts by half a point because although we'd
move higher at the open, I think later bonds will correct sharply as people
will perceive no further room for maneuver on interest rates," he said.
dan24
Forumer storico
Torel ha scritto:Dan mi pare che questo sia il post giusto per approfondire gli studi e l'operativita'
un salutone a tutti
si Torel....mi sto mangiando le mani a non aver shortato i 118,54 sulla spalla destra del testa e spalle..ribassista. stamani gap down molto ampio e rottura della neck line in area 117,45. vediamo se chiudono il gap a 118.
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