COMMODITIES ... solo per pochi pazzi !!!

[gipa69]

Oil dips as storm eases
By Yaw Yan Chong

SINGAPORE (Reuters) - Oil moved lower on Thursday as forecasters said Tropical Storm Chris may not become the season's first hurricane on its way toward oil facilities in the Gulf of Mexico and on hopes a Middle East truce could be reached soon.

U.S. light crude for September delivery fell 48 cents to $75.33 a barrel by 0810 GMT, shedding half of Wednesday's 90-cent gains, but only $3 away from last month's record high.

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London ICE Brent crude lost 32 cents to $76.56 a barrel.

Fears that Chris could grow into a hurricane and threaten U.S. oil rigs in the Gulf of Mexico eased on Thursday. Its top sustained winds slowed to near 55 mph (90 kph) and the system had become disorganized, with its center moving away from its thunderstorm activity, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said.

"Currently, we are not anticipating or forecasting Chris to become a hurricane in our last five-day forecast that we issued," said Michelle Mainelli, a hurricane specialist with the center. Tropical storms become hurricanes if such winds reach 74 mph (119 kph).

Experts have predicted this year could see another active Atlantic hurricane season with several major storms, though nothing like the record number seen in 2005.

"Despite reports that Chris is weakening now, there is still every possibility that it could still remain a threat to oil production," said Tobin Gorey, a commodities strategist with the Commonwealth Bank of Australia.

"The hurricanes will remain the main driver for oil prices in the near term. If it's not this one, then it could be the next or the one after that."

Hurricanes last year shut in a quarter of U.S. crude and fuel output and sent oil to then-record highs. Around 12 percent of the 1.5 million barrel-per-day (bpd) U.S. oil production in the Gulf of Mexico remained offline.

U.S. government data released on Wednesday showed crude oil stocks fell by a higher-than-expected 1.8 million barrels to 333.7 million barrels last week.

However, gasoline inventories, which had been expected to fall, were stable, dipping only 100,000 barrels, against expectations of a 1.6-million barrel draw. U.S. gasoline demand in the past four weeks still averaged 1.6 percent above the same period last year.

High crude oil prices have had some impact on U.S. economic growth but the pain is not on the level seen during the energy price shocks of the 1970s, U.S. Energy Secretary Sam Bodman said on Wednesday.

MIDDLE EAST HOPES

In the Middle East, Israel's Prime Minister Ehud Olmert said his country was very close to achieving its goal in Lebanon and the United Nations would likely vote on a truce next week.

"From our standpoint, we will cooperate with any reasonable proposal," he was quoted as saying by an Italian newspaper. "The new equation will spell out a completely different balance in the area. Hizbollah will think twice, three times, many times before attacking us, and I think we are very close to that goal."

Hizbollah had fired more rockets into Israel on Wednesday than on any other day in a war that has entered its fourth week, which Lebanon said had killed over 900 people, while Israeli jets continued to pound the guerrilla group's Beirut stronghold.

Traders fear the conflict could spread to Middle East oil producers, particularly Iran, which supports Hizbollah.

 

[masgui]

Grazie.....più guardo il grafico e più non vedo altro che una possibile explosione fino ai 1600.

ocio al Cocoa...last 1507. Close di ieri 1487.

 

[Fleursdumal]

ieri sul cacao è uscita sta news che sui fondamentali è bearish, anche se gli addetti ai lavori l'hanno accolta con lo solito scetticismo con cui prendono tutte le inziative dei paesi in via di sviluppo

DJ Indonesia Cocoa Production May Rise 20-25% By '07

A government scheme which - among other initiatives - will provide loans to
small-holders and larger private estates should help revitalize flagging cocoa
production in Indonesia, Zulhefi Sikumbang, secretary general of the Indonesia
Cocoa Association, told Dow Jones.

The government would allocate around 2 trillion rupiah ($220 million) to a
"rehabilitation fund" to provide loans to the cocoa sector this year, Sikumbang
said.

The loans are intended to assist producers to rejuvenate aging cocoa
plantations by planting new trees. This will help improve per-hectare
productivity over a five-year timeframe, he said.

"Our target (is to be able to) produce minimum 1 ton per hectare," he said.
"That's after five years." The current national average output is only 400-600
kilograms/ha.

The government would institute a flexible repayment scheme, Sikumbang said.

Repayments of the loans will be made at around 10.0% a year interest, he
said, and producers will be allocated an initial interest-free period of about
four to five years, to allow productivity and profit levels to increase, before
repayment commences.

But the projected 2006-07 increase in production is relatively small in light
of the program's longer-term potential, Sikumbang said.

"It's not really big, actually," he said. "(In) our estimation, Indonesia can
produce around 750,000 tons a year, in the next four years," he said.

Sikumbang did not give details on when the government scheme was likely to
begin.

Previous Indonesia Cocoa Association estimates saw total cocoa production
between 450,000-500,000 tons in 2006-07.

Meanwhile, the most active cocoa future on the New York Board of Trade was
trading up at 0925 GMT.

The most-active September was trading at $1,498 a ton, after closing at
$1,487/ton yesterday. Second most-active December was trading at $1,530/ton,
unchanged from yesterday's close.

 

[masgui]

ieri sul cacao è uscita sta news che sui fondamentali è bearish, anche se gli addetti ai lavori l'hanno accolta con lo solito scetticismo con cui prendono tutte le inziative dei paesi in via di sviluppo

DJ Indonesia Cocoa Production May Rise 20-25% By '07

A government scheme which - among other initiatives - will provide loans to
small-holders and larger private estates should help revitalize flagging cocoa
production in Indonesia, Zulhefi Sikumbang, secretary general of the Indonesia
Cocoa Association, told Dow Jones.

The government would allocate around 2 trillion rupiah ($220 million) to a
"rehabilitation fund" to provide loans to the cocoa sector this year, Sikumbang
said.

The loans are intended to assist producers to rejuvenate aging cocoa
plantations by planting new trees. This will help improve per-hectare
productivity over a five-year timeframe, he said.

"Our target (is to be able to) produce minimum 1 ton per hectare," he said.
"That's after five years." The current national average output is only 400-600
kilograms/ha.

The government would institute a flexible repayment scheme, Sikumbang said.

Repayments of the loans will be made at around 10.0% a year interest, he
said, and producers will be allocated an initial interest-free period of about
four to five years, to allow productivity and profit levels to increase, before
repayment commences.

But the projected 2006-07 increase in production is relatively small in light
of the program's longer-term potential, Sikumbang said.

"It's not really big, actually," he said. "(In) our estimation, Indonesia can
produce around 750,000 tons a year, in the next four years," he said.

Sikumbang did not give details on when the government scheme was likely to
begin.

Previous Indonesia Cocoa Association estimates saw total cocoa production
between 450,000-500,000 tons in 2006-07.

Meanwhile, the most active cocoa future on the New York Board of Trade was
trading up at 0925 GMT.

The most-active September was trading at $1,498 a ton, after closing at
$1,487/ton yesterday. Second most-active December was trading at $1,530/ton,
unchanged from yesterday's close.

Forse troppi would....could..ecc...

 

[gipa69]

Is this time different? (Part 3-Consumption)

When we started this series we noted several major differences between the last two major price spikes. One of those is that we noted on the 19th has now evaporated. Most if not all of the Arab nations which condemned Hezbollah's actions for starting the conflict are now condemning Israel and tacitly supporting Hezbollah. War is never predictable and this one less than most. Part 1 Is this time different?

The only tangible oil production problem at this time is in the Nigerian delta where the Movement for the Emancipation of the Nigeria Delta (MEND) has interrupted the flow of something over 700,000 barrels per day of oil production most of which is produced by Shell. Venezuela is going to cut off crude oil to the U.S. again but the wording is a little different this time. Energy Minister Rafael Ramirez said they would cut crude is the U.S. didn't stop its “hostile policies” towards Caracas. Actually those threats should not be summarily dismissed. Usually the wording is "if the U.S. invades Venezuela" Other choice quotes from an AP article include “Our policy is transparent. If the US wants to carry out hostile policies against us, we stop oil exports to this country” and “We can not steadily export oil to the US and be steadily subject to its hostility. Some actions should be taken against this situation.”

Last week we looked at refineries and while noting some problems with capacity found that most of the increase in gasoline prices was not because of the lack of refining capacity. Is this time different? (Part 2-Refining)

Consumption

"We have met the enemy and he is us." - Pogo

In this issue we look at consumption. In this and many issues in the series our focus will be on the U.S. There are two reasons for this focus. First the U.S. is the world's largest consumer of petroleum. Second, the data are of higher quality and available in far greater detail and frequency. Our focus remains the effects of the 24 month 160% price increase 1979-1981 and the last 34 months which saw a comparable gain on a percentage basis. With even a quick glance at the first graph below two things are apparent. (1) There was a dramatic drop in in consumption starting in 1979 and extending through 1983 but the effect of the current price increase has been minimal at best. (2) The seasonal fluctuation in consumption is far less today than it was in 1979 whether the seasonal patterns are viewed on an absolute or percentage basis.

From 1978 to 1982 U.S. petroleum consumption fell 3.55 million b/d (19%). The decline from 18.85 to 15.30 million b/d was accompanied by a substantial drop in seasonal volatility.

Gasoline consumption was a big contributor to the post 1978 drop in consumption. Gasoline dropped 12% from 7.41 million barrels per day in 1978 to 6.54 million b/d in 1982 accounting for 870,000 b/d of the decline. Gasoline's decline did not keep up with the rest of the market and its share of total petroleum consumption rose from 39.3% to 42.8%.

Last year consumption was flat compared to 2004 despite the physical constraints caused by the hurricanes. Year-to-date gasoline consumption is up 0.7% with the most recent 4 weeks 1.8% higher than last year. One thing is apparent, gasoline consumption in 1978 was not as sensitive to the oil price increase as the rest of the petroleum market nor is it today. Despite higher mileage automobiles due to the CAFE standards and a 55 mph speed limit it still did not respond as much as the rest of the market. We will deal with this and other sectors in greater detail in subsequent issues in the series.

During the 1979-1981 price run up jet fuel consumption slipped by a very modest 6% contributing little to the decline in consumption of petroleum. Jet fuel consumption has been essentially flat in the recent price spike.

The pattern of distillate (diesel and heating oil) consumption shows two different reactions from the two previous fuels. Neither gasoline nor jet fuel had a noticeable change in seasonal consumption patterns. However, the seasonal variation in distillate consumption dampened dramatically in the wake of the 1979-1981 price increase. From 1978 to 1983 the consumption of distillates fell 741,000 b/d which was a little less than 22% or 2-3 times the percentage decline in gasoline and jet fuel consumption.

There are two primary components to distillate consumption and they are based on use. One component is diesel or low sulfur distillate and the other is heating oil. Following our first price spike the consumption of diesel which at the time was about 1.3 million barrels per day showed almost no change while the use of heating oil in homes fell over 50%, industrial use dropped by a third and distillates for power generation plummeted 65%. The lower seasonal fluctuation reflects the decline in the use of distillates as a winter heating fuel.

Distillate consumption is a microcosm of the difference in the 24 months starting in 1979 and the current situation for all petroleum products. Fuel consumption for heating, industrial and commercial uses is very sensitive to price increases. Fuel consumption for transportation is not nearly as price sensitive. Since the mid-1980s almost all of the growth in distillate consumption has been in the transportation sector and the reaction to the recent price increase underscores that fact. The price increase of the last 34 months has slowed the growth in distillate consumption but has not cause a marked decline.

Residual fuel oil is used primarily for power generation and as an industrial process fuel. As a category it showed the greatest response to the 1979 price increase. By 1983 residual consumption was down 53 percent and has trended down since that point. Initially there was little response to the current price run up but more recently there has been a rather dramatic drop in residual fuel consumption. The recent reaction is due to fuel switching by power generation facilities that are also able to use natural gas that is currently priced below residual fuel on a heat content basis.

Summary

It is clear that this time is different. It isn't that consumers behave differently it is that the market for petroleum products has changed structurally. Because of the 1979 price increases the use of petroleum as a fuel for heating, industrial processes and electric power generation has shown a marked decline both in absolute terms and as a share of the total U.S. petroleum market. Then and now consumption of petroleum as a transportation fuel is not very price sensitive. Since transportation is currently a much larger share of the total market reducing consumption by any significant amount is a far more difficult task than it was in the late 1970s and early 1980s.

As the series continues we will look at each of the sectors in greater detail and discuss some of the implications for U.S. energy policy.



Prices for July 31, 2006
NYMEX Light Sweet Crude +1.16 $74.40

IPE Brent +1.76 $75.15
Gasoline NY Harbor -0.0046 $2.2289
Heating Oil NY Harbor +0.0267 $1.9679
NYMEX Natural Gas +0.123 $8.211


Copyright © 2006
James L. Williams
WTRG Economics

 

[masgui]

Grazie.....più guardo il grafico e più non vedo altro che una possibile explosione fino ai 1600.

Ma il Cocoa? Inverted hammer con gap, volumi spaventosi, RSI ai minimi, test della trend line rialzista. Qualcuno ha delle motivazioni per non entrare long?


Immagine sostituita con URL per un solo Quote: http://www.investireoggi.it/phpBB2/immagini/1153294912cocoa.png

Filo, filotto.....la Boccia 1 sulla 2...??

Chiaramente sono sempre fuori sul cacao ma short sulle Pfeizer

 

[ditropan]

Mha ... buono lui, Mr. cacao, ma non mi eccita un granchè ... oscillazioni attorno ai 60 centesimi in multiday pari a 600$ per contratto, dovendo scegliere moto meglio il caffè che invece mediamente porta oscillazioni dell'ordine dei 15 centesimi pari a 5625$ a contratto. .... lo sò ... sono una testa matta !!!

Se sul cacao da 1500 arrivi a 1600 sono 1000 $ per contratto, sul caffè invece se parti da 100 ed arrivi a 110 di dollarazzi sono 3750 $ ... molto più remunerativo ... chiaramente bisogna sempre vedere anche la parte opposta della mediaglia.

 

[masgui]

Mha ... buono lui, Mr. cacao, ma non mi eccita un granchè ... oscillazioni attorno ai 60 centesimi in multiday pari a 600$ per contratto, dovendo scegliere moto meglio il caffè che invece mediamente porta oscillazioni dell'ordine dei 15 centesimi pari a 5625$ a contratto. .... lo sò ... sono una testa matta !!!

Se sul cacao da 1500 arrivi a 1600 sono 1000 $ per contratto, sul caffè invece se parti da 100 ed arrivi a 110 di dollarazzi sono 3750 $ ... molto più remunerativo ... chiaramente bisogna sempre vedere anche la parte opposta della mediaglia.

il confronto omogeneo dovrebbe essere con delta 10%: da 100 a 110 coffee ma 1500 a 1650 sul cocoa..
Il tick vale quasi doppio ma anche i margini sono tripli. Quindi non vedo tutto questa diffferenza...a parte la vola. sbaglio? l'esperto di MP sei te..

 

[Fleursdumal]

un energy hedge fund è saltato sul natural gas


New York energy hedge fund to close

NEW YORK (AFX) - One of the biggest New York hedge funds trading natural gas futures, MotherRock LP, is shutting down after suffering big losses in the natural gas market in June and July.

New York-based MotherRock, which at its peak in May managed about $430 million in assets, was formed in early 2005 by former New York Mercantile Exchange President J. Robert 'Bo' Collins.

'Let me say upfront that I regret MotherRock's terrible performance and its impact on your investments,' Collins wrote in a letter to investors in his MotherRock Energy Master Fund. 'We fully understand the implications of this drawdown. Our primary concern at this point is to protect investors' remaining capital.''We are in the process of developing a detailed plan for winding down the fund,' Collins, 40, said in the letter sent Thursday, a copy of which was obtained by Dow Jones Newswires.

The management of MotherRock recommended to its board of directors Wednesday to make the decision to close the fund, which isn't yet final.

In 2005, MotherRock clocked up net gains of 20 percent.

The demise of the hedge fund comes after a period of high volatility in the natural gas market, after a seasonally unusual draw in gas from storage last week and a rally fueled by a heat wave across much of the United States.

Having gained 17 percent last week, natural gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange surged 14 percent on Monday, ahead of the onset of brutal heat in the Northeast and Midwest.

Natural gas is a principal fuel for electricity generation, especially in times of high demand. Nearly 60 percent of U.S. homes use natural gas for their heat and cooling needs, making it especially sensitive to weather.

MotherRock had 'significant losses' in July, though a final tally wasn't yet available, Collins said in the letter. He said the fund would inform investors of the hit it has taken in the next two days.

'We are in the process of developing a detailed plan for winding down the Fund,' Collins wrote. 'We will have a conference call next week to communicate this plan.''Prior to the conference call we will remain entirely focused on completing the wind-down plan and protecting your remaining capital and thus will be unable to answer individual inquiries,' he added.

Collins couldn't be reached for additional comment.

Drawing on his Nymex experience and his work as a market-maker for New York brokerage Pioneer Futures, Collins set up MotherRock with Conrad Goerl -- a former trader at Pioneer -- and John D'Agostino, formerly vice president of strategy and business development at Nymex. Prior to accepting a post as Nymex president in 2001, Collins led natural-gas trading at Houston energy company El Paso Corp .

 

[Fleursdumal]

Coffee rose in London, trading close to a six-year high, as roasters compete for reduced supplies.

Vietnam's coffee exports of 1.2 million bags in June were down 8.5 percent from May, contributing to a 7.3 percent drop in global shipments, the London-based International Coffee Organization said July 31. Vietnam is the world's biggest producer of caffeine-packed robusta beans that are traded in
London.

"There is just no robusta around," said Elizabeth Miller, director of research at RedTower Ltd., a financial research and trading company in Scotland. "Vietnam has nothing to sell."

Coffee futures for September delivery rose $37, or 2.9 percent, to $1,334 a metric ton at 12:42 a.m. on London's Euronext.liffe exchange. Prices were up 18 percent from last year. Coffee traded July 31 at $1,352, the highest since January 2000.

Vietnam has reduced stockpiles after last year's harvest was damaged by drought, Miller said. ``They're having to hold on to inventories to meet their own contractual obligations,'' she said.

Il Vietnam è un fulgido esempio di cattiva politica agricola
piantagione sorte dal nulla grazie a prestiti internazionali, nessuna tradizione , inondazione del mercato con caffè di pessima qualità , conseguente crollo dei prezzi che si son ripresi solo negli ultimi due anni grazie a madre natura