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[masgui]

un energy hedge fund è saltato sul natural gas


New York energy hedge fund to close

NEW YORK (AFX) - One of the biggest New York hedge funds trading natural gas futures, MotherRock LP, is shutting down after suffering big losses in the natural gas market in June and July.

New York-based MotherRock, which at its peak in May managed about $430 million in assets, was formed in early 2005 by former New York Mercantile Exchange President J. Robert 'Bo' Collins.

'Let me say upfront that I regret MotherRock's terrible performance and its impact on your investments,' Collins wrote in a letter to investors in his MotherRock Energy Master Fund. 'We fully understand the implications of this drawdown. Our primary concern at this point is to protect investors' remaining capital.''We are in the process of developing a detailed plan for winding down the fund,' Collins, 40, said in the letter sent Thursday, a copy of which was obtained by Dow Jones Newswires.

The management of MotherRock recommended to its board of directors Wednesday to make the decision to close the fund, which isn't yet final.

In 2005, MotherRock clocked up net gains of 20 percent.

The demise of the hedge fund comes after a period of high volatility in the natural gas market, after a seasonally unusual draw in gas from storage last week and a rally fueled by a heat wave across much of the United States.

Having gained 17 percent last week, natural gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange surged 14 percent on Monday, ahead of the onset of brutal heat in the Northeast and Midwest.

Natural gas is a principal fuel for electricity generation, especially in times of high demand. Nearly 60 percent of U.S. homes use natural gas for their heat and cooling needs, making it especially sensitive to weather.

MotherRock had 'significant losses' in July, though a final tally wasn't yet available, Collins said in the letter. He said the fund would inform investors of the hit it has taken in the next two days.

'We are in the process of developing a detailed plan for winding down the Fund,' Collins wrote. 'We will have a conference call next week to communicate this plan.''Prior to the conference call we will remain entirely focused on completing the wind-down plan and protecting your remaining capital and thus will be unable to answer individual inquiries,' he added.

Collins couldn't be reached for additional comment.

Drawing on his Nymex experience and his work as a market-maker for New York brokerage Pioneer Futures, Collins set up MotherRock with Conrad Goerl -- a former trader at Pioneer -- and John D'Agostino, formerly vice president of strategy and business development at Nymex. Prior to accepting a post as Nymex president in 2001, Collins led natural-gas trading at Houston energy company El Paso Corp .

alla faccia del risk management.....

 

[gipa69]

BP Alaska shut-in

BP announced that it will be shutting down 400,000 barrels per day of Prudhoe Bay oil production. The problem is corrosion in some of the lines that feed into the major pipeline system. It has caused enough concern to shut the field down because of the potential that more corrosion exists elsewhere. This sounds may not have been recent inspections of other pipelines, but it could just as easily be an abundance of caution on the part of BP. Pipelines are examined regularly by sending an inspection unit known as a pig through the pipeline. We've all heard the expression: "When pigs fly!" Well this is it. If it hasn't already happened you can anticipate that extra inspection pigs are on the plane from Houston to Alaska.

This is reminiscent of the problems with BP's Texas refinery that is still not operating at full capacity.

Part of the impact on U.S. production may have already been seen in the statistics for the two weeks ending July 28. If so then it will drop U.S. production to 4.8 million b/d if not it could be closer to 4.3.

Fortunately this comes at a time when U.S. crude oil inventories are in very good shape.

The Western U.S. (PADD 5) stocks have about 5 million barrels of padding in them. However, that will only be enough to cover a loss of 400,000 b/d loss for a little less than two weeks.

Gasoline stocks are also higher than normal in the West which adds a little to the cushion.

Western refineries use about 2.8 million barrels per day. The 400,000 b/d loss represents about 15 percent of normal input.

This will strain the market a little but the true impact will have to wait for information about the inspection results, the repair needed and its pace. If it is a week or two it is not a problem but on the surface this sounds like it will take a month or longer to repair. So far this has had over a $1.50 impact on the market.



Copyright © 2006
James L. Williams
WTRG Economics
(479) 293-4081

 

[Fleursdumal]

ABN may see $100 mln in fund-related losses-report
Wed Aug 9, 2006
AMSTERDAM, Aug 9 (Reuters) - Dutch bank ABN AMRO (AAH.AS: Quote, Profile, Research) may face losses of nearly $100 million from the collapse of a hedge fund run by former New York Mercantile Exchange President Robert Collins, the New York Post said on Wednesday.

A spokeswoman for ABN AMRO, the Netherlands biggest bank, declined to comment on the report.

The fund, called Motherrock, collapsed last week and lost almost all of its investors' $450 million after a bet on natural gas went wrong, the newspaper said on its Web site, citing unnamed sources.

ABN brokered trades for Motherrock and allowed the fund to trade with borrowed money, and is now holding over 1 million futures and options contracts on natural gas, the New York Post said, citing "traders and other sources close to ABN."

The newspaper also said that the incident could jeapordise ABN's plans to sell its global futures business to UBS (UBSN.VX: Quote, Profile, Research) for $386 million in cash.

 

[Fleursdumal]

sempre il gassaccio

DJ US GAS: Futures Seen Opening Higher On High Cash Prices

HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--Natural gas futures are seen opening higher Wednesday
amid higher cash prices for physical gas and anticipation for Thursday's
release of natural gas storage data.

September gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange are seen opening
about 34 cents higher at $7.50 per million British thermal units.

Natural gas and oil prices, which have shot up in recent days after BP PLC
announced it was shutting down its Prudhoe Bay oil field in Alaska, do not
correlate and are not putting upward pressure on the gas market, said Ed
Kennedy, a gas trader with Commercial Brokerage Corp. in Miami, Fla.

"Natural gas does not follow the crude market," he said. "I don't know why
people think that. This is being buoyed by storage injections."

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its weekly
gas storage data Thursday. Current U.S. natural gas in storage is still 19%
above the five-year average at 2.775 trillion cubic feet, and 15% higher than
the same period last year, according to EIA data.

If the EIA reports a withdrawal of gas from storage instead of an injection
of gas into storage, it would mark the second time ever that natural gas was
withdrawn from storage during the summer. For the week ended July 21, a 7
billion cubic feet withdrawal was reported. Generally, gas is built up in
storage during the summer months to use for winter heating demand.

Kennedy said another factor supporting the gas market is the high cash price.
Based on the price of cash being higher than the futures price, some owners are
injecting gas into storage to be sold when prices are higher in the winter
heating months, he said. December gas futures are seen opening at around
$10.54/MMBtu Wednesday.

In the meantime, physical gas was trading up at the benchmark Henry Hub at
about $7.60/MMBtu, 62 cents higher than early Tuesday, while gas at
Transcontinental Zone 6 in New York was trading at $8.31/MMBtu, up 59 cents
from Tuesday, according to the Intercontinental Exchange.

 

[ditropan]

sempre il gassaccio

DJ US GAS: Futures Seen Opening Higher On High Cash Prices

HOUSTON (Dow Jones)--Natural gas futures are seen opening higher Wednesday
amid higher cash prices for physical gas and anticipation for Thursday's
release of natural gas storage data.

September gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange are seen opening
about 34 cents higher at $7.50 per million British thermal units.

Natural gas and oil prices, which have shot up in recent days after BP PLC
announced it was shutting down its Prudhoe Bay oil field in Alaska, do not
correlate and are not putting upward pressure on the gas market, said Ed
Kennedy, a gas trader with Commercial Brokerage Corp. in Miami, Fla.

"Natural gas does not follow the crude market," he said. "I don't know why
people think that. This is being buoyed by storage injections."

The U.S. Energy Information Administration is scheduled to release its weekly
gas storage data Thursday. Current U.S. natural gas in storage is still 19%
above the five-year average at 2.775 trillion cubic feet, and 15% higher than
the same period last year, according to EIA data.

If the EIA reports a withdrawal of gas from storage instead of an injection
of gas into storage, it would mark the second time ever that natural gas was
withdrawn from storage during the summer. For the week ended July 21, a 7
billion cubic feet withdrawal was reported. Generally, gas is built up in
storage during the summer months to use for winter heating demand.

Kennedy said another factor supporting the gas market is the high cash price.
Based on the price of cash being higher than the futures price, some owners are
injecting gas into storage to be sold when prices are higher in the winter
heating months, he said. December gas futures are seen opening at around
$10.54/MMBtu Wednesday.

In the meantime, physical gas was trading up at the benchmark Henry Hub at
about $7.60/MMBtu, 62 cents higher than early Tuesday, while gas at
Transcontinental Zone 6 in New York was trading at $8.31/MMBtu, up 59 cents
from Tuesday, according to the Intercontinental Exchange.

 

[smile]

andrea mi dici il valore della chiusura delle 20 ho il buio sul lightsweet

grazie

 

[masgui]

Oppure è suicida (o meglio stupido) credere in qualcosa che non esiste. Di A.T. si discute tantissimo e forse stiamo andando OT.
Il problema è molto semplice: si può dimostrare il funzionamento di una regola di A.T.?
Ovvero si prende una regola e la si verifca sui dati di un titolo degli ultimi 2 anni.
Parlo di una regola "oggettiva" non di una "sensibiltà" che varia da una persona ad un altra.
Qualcuno è in grado di fornire un esempio di questo genere?

 

[masgui]

sull'efficenza dell'analisi tecnica ancora...dallo stesso documento.


Ma esiste anche una risposta diversa e più interessante dall’irrazionalità per il successo
dell’analisi tecnica, risposta che paradossalmente riconosce la piena efficienza informativa dei
mercati. Questa ipotesi rovescia il concetto tradizionale di efficienza come sinonimo di non
prevedibilità ed implica una diversa visione dei prezzi, ovvero come unici segnali disponibili
per capire ciò che succede nei mercati. Resta da chiarire come in questo secondo caso un
mercato efficiente possa muoversi secondo dinamiche non casuali; tale spiegazione
permetterebbe di affermare l’utilità dell’analisi tecnica senza per questo negare l’efficienza del
mercato. L’opportunità più promettente in questo senso può essere quella di considerare il
Il dibattito su dignità ed efficacia dell'analisi tecnica nell'economia finanziaria 26
prezzo stesso una fonte d’informazione67; a partire dalle considerazioni di alcuni studiosi68 che
hanno tentato di formalizzare il comportamento degli operatori nel breve periodo, si può
affermare che la precarietà delle informazioni detenute dagli operatori rende molto rischiose le
strategie rivolte al lungo termine ed estremamente importante il grado di fiducia posto nelle
proprie aspettative; il rischio è determinato dalla probabilità assegnata al verificarsi di un
evento, mentre la fiducia identifica l’ammontare assoluto di conoscenza specifica rilevante di
cui gli operatori effettivamente dispongono. Se gli agenti decidessero di agire nonostante una
bassa probabilità ed una scarsa fiducia nelle loro aspettative, si registrerebbero comportamenti
caratterizzati da forte instabilità; basterebbero poche nuove informazioni o piccole novità anche
apparentemente irrilevanti desunte magari dall’evoluzione delle quotazioni, per modificare
radicalmente le aspettative.
L’orizzonte temporale di riferimento viene abbreviato e viene adottato un comportamento
convenzionale, che costituisce una strategia del tutto razionale di fronte ad una difficoltà
eccessiva determinata dall’incertezza. Ciascun investitore osserva il comportamento degli altri
investitori sulla base delle quotazioni registrate e può sviluppare e rafforzare la propria fiducia
nelle sue aspettative, con la possibilità che questo dia luogo a meri comportamenti imitativi.
Allora la presenza di tendenze nei prezzi non è originata da comportamenti irrazionali, ma
dall’effetto di retroazione dei prezzi sulle decisioni degli investitori, sia in quanto il prezzo è
fonte d’informazione disponibile (che ne sintetizza pezzi dispersi e talvolta contraddittori che
ciascun individuo possiede separatamente), sia soprattutto in quanto il prezzo condiziona
inevitabilmente l’interpretazione che ciascuno dà dell’informazione di cui dispone. L’operatore
possiede dunque una conoscenza parziale e si confronta sistematicamente con un prezzo che
esprime la conoscenza altrui; la tendenza è determinata non dalla lentezza del mercato
nell’interpretazione dell’informazione, bensì dall’esigenza continua di conferme che
l’incertezza impone all’investitore. La validità dell’analisi tecnica non dipende dunque
dall’efficienza o inefficienza del mercato in senso classico; vi può essere la presenza di
fenomeni di ciclicità non periodica senza che questo implichi comportamenti non
massimizzanti e irrazionali da parte degli operatori.

 

[ditropan]

Ucci ucci che ti vedo .... vediamo se è la volta buona oppure ci fanno aspettare ancora per romprere (al ribasso) questo bel triangolino ...

... e magari sarebbe pure ora che si porti dietro pure l'avena ...

 

[ditropan]

andrea mi dici il valore della chiusura delle 20 ho il buio sul lightsweet

grazie

... ostrega ... vedo solo adesso.

Combinato poi ?