COMMODITIES ... solo per pochi pazzi !!!

[Fleursdumal]

Scusate sapete dirmi il min storico e il max storico del brent? grazie buona serata a tutti

purtroppo mi è difficile reperire un grafico storico del Brent, il max storico comunque l'ha fatto l'altro giorno
Un grafo trentennale del crude oil americano lo puoi trovare qui http://www.mrci.com/pdf/charts.asp

 

[alan1]

purtroppo mi è difficile reperire un grafico storico del Brent, il max storico comunque l'ha fatto l'altro giorno
Un grafo trentennale del crude oil americano lo puoi trovare qui http://www.mrci.com/pdf/charts.asp

Si calcola che nel 79, in seguito alla salita al potere in Iran di Komeini (o come diavolo si scrive) il greggio raggiunse un controvalore rettificabile al valore di oggi superiore a 100$.

Fonte non verificata.

 

[alan1]

i funds son usciti in massa come caproni per prendere profitto, nel post dei bonds ho messo il grafico di una mossa simile accaduta l'anno scorso, d'altronde era tiratissimo ormai con un rsi14 sul daily a 94
il bello è che ha tirato giù anche l'oro che stamattina faceva un +1,5%

Chiedevo perchè mi sembrava strano che un motivo essenzialmente tecnico potesse fornire un simile risultato,
per di più con gli strumenti correlati non in divergenza.


Mah!?


Comunque grazie

 

[Fleursdumal]

di niente alan, quali sarebbero gli strumenti correlati non in divergenza?
la discesa sta continuando impetuosa anche nell'ah

posto un report che ho trovato

DJ NY Precious Metals Review: Silver Leads Liquidation Tumble

DOW JONES NEWSWIRES



Precious metals tumbled on fund and speculative long liquidation Thursday,
with silver falling especially hard after it previously had been the one
posting the most dramatic rally over the last couple of months, traders and
analysts said.

"Really, it's just a rush to cash in profits on what was really a spectacular
move higher," said Tim Evans, analyst with IFR Markets.

June gold settled $12.90 lower at $623.10 per ounce on the Comex division of
the New York Mercantile Exchange. It had hit an overnight contract high of
$649, the strongest level since 1980.

May silver settled down $1.997 to $12.525 an ounce after an overnight
contract high of $14.69 that was this metal's most muscular level since 1983.
Around mid-morning, the silver futures hit their $1.50 limit down and were
closed for 15 minutes, before reopening with an expanded limit, according to an
official with the exchange.

At its contract high, May silver was up a whopping 61% from its Feb. 14 low
of $9.14. At its contract high, June gold was up 20% from its March 10 low of
$540.20.

The metals have been boosted lately by a number of factors, including
momentum-based buying and geopolitical tensions tied to Iran's nuclear
program. Silver has been getting an added impetus this year on anticipation of
an exchange-traded fund by Barclays Global Investors, which has been approved
for listing on the American Stock Exchange but cannot be launched until the
Securities and Exchange Commission approves a registration statement.

Some analysts have suggested lately that there was so much bullishness in the
silver market that it may have run out of potential buyers.

At the beginning of the week, the Market Vane Bullish Consensus indicator
showed that 97% of traders were bullish on silver, said Steven Jon Kaplan, gold
and silver analyst with TrueContrarian.com.

"This is a remarkably high Bullish Consensus," he said. "So the market ran
out of people willing to buy."

This comes at a time when there have been reports that with gold and silver
hitting such lofty levels, some traditional buyers in countries such as India
have been selling metal lately, including personal items, said Kaplan.

Furthermore, an increase in the silver margin after Wednesday's session may
have contributed to Thursday's pullback, said Kaplan. This meant many traders
probably raised their sell stops, he said.

"So if people had a sell stop at $11, they may have raised it to $12," said
Kaplan. "If they had it at $12, they may have raised it to $13.

"Then, with all these people raising their sell stops, if there is a small
drop like we had this morning, it triggers these sell stops from speculators
and that in itself creates additional selling pressure."

Evans commented that it's too soon to say whether gold and silver have put in
long-term tops.

"But this certainly puts an exclamation point at the end of the rally and
does set some significant resistance in place as the benchmark for future price
action," he said, in reference to the contract highs.

He characterized the pullback as part of a broader commodities move rather
than due to any market-specific fresh news. Crude oil was also lower as gold
closed, although it was off its weakest levels of the day.

Kaplan commented that there has been a tendency for commodities to both rise
and fall together lately due to the increased flow from funds. This is because
these managers often look at chart patterns more heavily than simply focusing
on supply/demand fundamentals.

Peter Grandich, metals analyst and publisher of the Grandich letter,
described the pullback as "long overdue," "not surprising" and even "healthy"
for those with a long-term perspective.

"The first pullback is likely to be bought aggressively because there are
still a lot of people trying to get in," he said. "But it's likely to signal at
least the beginning of a short- to intermediate-term correction for most
metals, especially those rising in a parabolic state. That would be silver and
copper."

Eventually, however, he said he looks for the metals to resume their upward
move.

The Platinum Group Metals also tumbled on speculative liquidation.

"There is a lot of profit-taking," said one trader. "There was a big
clean-out in gold and silver. Platinum and palladium were just following gold
and silver."

July platinum settled down $22 to $1,108.80 an ounce after hitting a contract
high of $1,145 overnight. June palladium lost $23.95 to $349.90 an ounce.


Settlements (open-outcry trading only):
London PM Gold Fix: $625 Versus $624.75 Wednesday
U.S. spot gold at 2:28 p.m. ET: $619.80, down $20.40 from
previous day; Range: $607.55-$645.75
June gold (RGCM06) $623.10, down $12.90; Range $610.50-$645.00
May silver (RSIK06) $12.525, down $1.997; Range $12.20-$14.330
July platinum (RPLN06) $1108.80, down $22.10; Range $1107.00-
$1136.00
June palladium (RPAM06) $349.90, down $23.95; Range $345.00-
$372.00

 

[Fleursdumal]

seguendo i futures sul cbot non mi ero minimamente reso conto che sul comex avevano sospeso per limit down e poi riaperto a banda allargata dopo 15'

 

[gipa69]

DJ LME Review: Fund Profit Taking Sees Deep Correction
Thursday, April 20, 2006 4:52:36 PM
http://www.osterdowjones.com/



DJ LME Review: Fund Profit Taking Sees Deep Correction

LONDON (Dow Jones)--Fund profit taking pushed London Metal Exchange prices to
a deep correction Thursday after sharply lower precious metals prices, a higher
dollar and weaker oil prices combined to trigger long liquidation, traders and
analysts said.

LME three-month copper posted an unusually large $270 a metric ton trading
range after falling from an early intraday high of $6,450/ton to a low of
$6,180/ton.

Spot silver was hardest hit by profit taking, falling by 15% from Wednesday's
peak, or $2.2 a troy ounce while gold was down nearly 6%.

In addition, talk of China introducing new measures to cool its overheating
economy might have contributed to the LME's drop in prices, base metals analyst
Robin Bhar at UBS said.

"At the moment we see this move as a healthy correction on profit taking," he
said, but didn't exclude the possibility of a deeper reversal.

LME nickel drove prices during the early part of the day, rising by $400
during pre-market trade alone, rising to a record high of $18,950/ton, up 3.2%,
which boosted zinc to a fresh record high of $3,200/ton.

Nickel has gained strong technical momentum since breaking through the
$18,000/ton level earlier this week, while falling stocks and a rebound in the
stainless steel sector is adding to upside momentum, traders said.

LME aluminum rose to an intraday high of $2,735/ton, where profit taking
started to weigh.

All metals except nickel pared gains to end in negative territory in light of
the sector sell-off, while aluminum hit heavy stops at $2,600/ton that took
prices down to $2,587.50/ton.

Prices in dollar a metric ton.

3 Months Metal Bid-Ask Change from
Wednesday PM kerb
Copper 6296.00-6297.00 Dn 94.00
Lead 1180.00-1185.00 Dn 15.00
Zinc 3075.00-3080.00 Dn 80.00
Aluminum 2645.00-2650.00 Dn 37.00
Nickel 18450.00-18455.00 Up 105.00
Tin 8950.00-8975.00 Dn 230.00
Aluminum Alloy 2430.00-2450.00 Dn 70.00
Aluminum Alloy 2305.00-2306.00 Dn 95.00
(NASAAC)

 

[alan1]

di niente alan, quali sarebbero gli strumenti correlati non in divergenza?
la discesa sta continuando impetuosa anche nell'ah

Le considerazioni tecniche sono corrette,
infatti per l'inizio della prossima settimana avevo un cluster,

inoltre i preziosi sono ciclicamente anticiclici, ciò comporta un atteggiamento asimmetrico opposto a quello delle azioni,
ovvero, se il mercato azionario tende a creare top arrotondati e bottom a guglia, e vero il contrario per i preziosi.

Ciò nonostante in tutto il mercato dei preziosi e nei titoli minerari collegati non si registravano divergenze che lasciassero pensare ad un movimento così violento.

E' altresì vero che il numero di hedge fund di tipo CTA è abbastanza consistente e i meccanismi quantitativi utilizzati tendono a dare segnali tutti insieme,
qualora vi sia una partenza consistente, questa viene velocemente amplificata.


Vedremo come si svilupperà.


Ricordo che ciclicamente il mercato anticiclico non ha ancora terminato la sua azione temporale, sebbene dal punto di vista dei prezzi sia assai tirato.

 

[giomf]

up per leggere ....

 

[gipa69]

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2006/04/20060425.html

http://www.whitehouse.gov/news/releases/2006/04/20060425-2.html

 

[patt]

Ciao GRANDE Gipa!! Upp....