Un segnale negativo che mi sembra necessario tenere d'occhio, e viene dagli USA: infatti, é vero che i bond HY trovano buona accoglienza e che questo porta gli emittenti a migliorare inaspettatamente (a detta di un analista della stessa Moody's) la propria posizione cash, così trovandosi a beneficiare anche di upgrades nel rating o nell'outlook.
E tuttavia, mentre i bond HY sembrano ritrovare una stagione favorevole, i loans HY (ossia i prestiti bancari ad emittenti HY) sono fermi, ed anzi spesso sono i soldi presi a prestito dal mercato obbligazionario ad essere utilizzati dagli emittenti HY per ripagare i loans bancari, così riallocando il rischio dalle banche agli investitori privati ...
L'argomento sembra pertinente, così come anche le considerazioni su di una tornata ulteriore di debito HY in scadenza fra il 2011 ed il 2014, che potrebbe portare i default a risalire nel 2010 dopo aver fatto un primo picco a fine 2009 ed aver segnato una discesa nel 2010.
Se così fosse, questa che stiamo tenendo d'occhio sarebbe una falsa (ri)partenza del ciclo del rischio...
US companies replace loans with bonds, reduce risk
Tue Jun 2, 2009 2:39pm EDT
By
Dena Aubin
NEW YORK, June 2 (Reuters) - A buoyant U.S. junk bond market is helping companies refinance loans piled on during a recent credit boom, leading to a surprising increase in rating upgrades for some of the country's riskier borrowers.
Even as the United States struggles through the longest recession since World War TWO, many companies are improving their cash position and lowering risks by refinancing debt and pushing out maturities, according to Moody's Investors Service.
"The enhancing of liquidity we're seeing is quite striking and totally unexpected," said John Lonski, chief economist at Moody's. "You might well be looking at a lower high-yield default rate than otherwise because of increased liquidity."
Junk bond defaults, already at a seven-year high of 9.2 percent in the United States, are still expected to rise sharply, peaking at 14.5 percent later this year, according to Moody's default experts.
But some companies may be heading off a second surge of defaults when more than $1 trillion of junk bonds and loans come due between 2011 and 2014, much of it issued to fund a wave of leveraged buyouts in 2006 and 2007.
LOAN MARKET LANGUISHES
"Companies are extending their maturities, which is a positive," said Morgan Stanley high-yield strategist Jocelyn Chu. "They may not be deleveraging per se, but they're positioning themselves to do so when we recover."
So far in the second quarter, Moody's Investors Service has upgraded 60 high-yield ratings, many of them bank ratings after companies refinanced debt. If Moody's continues to raise ratings at that pace, this quarter will be a record for high-yield upgrades, topping the previous high of 93 in the second quarter of 2007.
"We have all these bank loans that are coming due, (yet) the bank loan market is effectively shut," said Sabur Moini, high-yield portfolio manager at asset management firm Payden & Rygel in Los Angeles. With the high-yield bond market flush with cash, it makes sense for companies to prepay loans, even if bond debt costs a little more, he said.
The loan market has been lackluster since the
credit crisis all but eliminated demand from structured product and hedge funds, once the biggest buyers of loans.
Appetite for junk bonds, meanwhile, has improved as economic data indicated the recession may have bottomed.
U.S. junk bond sales in May topped $23 billion, the most since the
credit crisis started in mid-2007, according to Thomson Reuters data. For details click on [ID:nN28356759]. About 76 percent of the sales were done to refinance debt, according to Barclays Capital.
$1.3 TRILLION OVERHANG
Part of the rush to repay loans stems from a desire to eliminate their restrictive covenants, or limits on debt and other financial tests.
Warner Music Group (
WMG.N), the world's third-largest music company, did that when it sold $1.1 billion in junk bonds last month to help pay down all of its senior bank debt. Although interest costs on the bonds will be higher, they will have looser lending terms that will give the company financial flexibility as music sales tumble.
Moody's upgraded Warner Music after the bond sale, saying it will materially improve the company's liquidity and stretch out maturing debt to 2016.
Cricket Communications, a unit of Leap Wireless (
LEAP.O), last week sold $1.1 billion in seven-year notes, earmarking part of the proceeds to repay a secured bank loan. The debt sale will extend a major debt maturity by three years, according to KDP Investment Advisors, leaving the company with no significant debt due until July 2014.
Refinancing needs will rise substantially in less than two years. Between 2011 and 2014, nearly $1.3 trillion of junk-rated debt will come due, according to Standard & Poor's.
"Even if credit markets improve significantly in the next year or two, higher refinancing needs in the early 2010s could create a gross supply glut that outpaces investor demand," S&P said in a recent report. The result could be another round of default pressure on weaker borrowers, it said. (Additional reporting by Tom Ryan; Editing by Kenneth Barry)
