Obbligazioni societarie GM, Ford, Chrysler: il 3D dell'automotive USA (2 lettori)

[Gpcoco]

Valutazione Investimento FIAT in Chrysler

intanto inizio ringraziandovi per le molte informazioni che ho trovato nel vostro forum!
vengo a spiegarvi il mio dubbio, sperando possiate aiutarmi.

Sono ora in tesi di laurea, sto facendo una stima del valore della partecipazione di fiat in chrysler partendo da dati aggregati macroeconomici del governo americano sulla spesa delle famiglie e dell'industria.

in primo punto, mi sono ricavato da alcune banche dati la spesa mensile delle famiglie americane nell'acquisto di veicoli nuovi domestici. Attraverso un'analisi matematica cercherò di ricavare la tendenza nei prossimi mesi.

successivamente prendo in mano un bilancio della chrysler (devo basarmi sul bilancio 2009 poichè la società è appena stata creata) ed attraverso un'analisi 1) della struttura finanziaria e 2) della struttura dei costi dell'azienda vado a ricavarmi 2 dati essenziali:
1) una stima dei free cash flow (partendo dai dati di spesa delle famiglie americane e dell'industria) che sconterò usando
2) il costo del capitale pesato della stessa chrysler (WACC).

Usando questi 2 dati e dei semplici modelli di analisi finanziaria posso stimare il valore attuale della società (che se fosse quotata dovrebbe vagamente avere delle similitudini con il valore azionario).
Dal valore attuale calcolo il 20% che è la partecipazione di Fiat.

sapete confermarmi che la partecipazione del governo è del 9.85%?
sapreste dirmi a quale tasso d'interesse viaggia il prestito del governo americano?

grazie mille per qualsiasi informazione vogliate darmi!
GP

 

[stockuccio]

integro Paologorgo ... oltre che da Edmund puoi informarti da Edgar Company Search ... nel tuo caso http://www.sec.gov/cgi-bin/browse-edgar?action=getcompany&CIK=0001476991&owner=exclude&count=40
già che ci sono http://chryslermedia.iconicweb.com/mediasite/attachments/2010_Q2_FINANCIAL_STATEMENTS.pdf
il valore di una società dipende dagli utili attesi ... e qui andiamo maluccio

 

[stockuccio]

....
il valore di una società dipende dagli utili attesi ... e qui andiamo maluccio

son finiti gli incentivi ... ma pure da noi i risultati sono simili
nella tesi metterei quel che dice Beppe Grillo ... l'auto è morta, il futuro è sempre più l'immobilismo

 

[Topgun1976]

NEW YORK, Sept 1 (Reuters) - U.S. automaker General Motors Co [GM.UL] plans to begin courting investors for its initial public offering immediately after the Nov. 2 U.S. midterm congressional elections, two sources familiar with the plans said on Wednesday.
GM's roadshow is set to begin on Nov. 3 and will last two weeks, the sources said. The IPO is expected to price on Nov. 17 and debut on Nov. 18, the sources said.
The sources cautioned that the plans were still being finalized and could change based on how U.S. stock markets perform.
Waiting until after the Nov. 2 elections would also allow bankers to tout GM's third-quarter financial results to investors although the automaker has cautioned that the second half of the year will show a slowdown from the first half.
In August, GM filed paperwork for an IPO that could be worth as much as $20 billion, making it potentially one of the biggest IPOs of all time and the biggest new issue in the United States since Visa Inc's (V.N) March 2008 IPO of $19.7 billion. [ID:nN18118235]
The final value of the IPO has not been set but one source said early plans for the IPO envisioned selling $12 billion to $16 billion in common stock and $3 billion to $4 billion in preferred stock that would convert to common stock under a mandatory provision.
GM filed paperwork for its IPO just over a year after emerging from a government-sponsored restructuring in bankruptcy. The U.S. government poured $50 billion of taxpayer money into the carmaker and emerged with a 61 percent stake.
Despite its success in preventing the liquidation of GM and Chrysler that many analysts had feared, the government bailout of the U.S. auto industry has been criticized by Republican lawmakers and proved unpopular with voters.
The Obama administration is eager to cast the GM IPO as a success, but GM executives and government officials have repeatedly denied any political motivation in timing the IPO for the top U.S. automaker so close to the mid-term congressional elections.
Republicans are likely to gain ground when all 435 seats in the U.S. House of Representatives and 37 of the 100 seats in the Senate are up for grabs in the Nov. 2 midterm elections, analysts say. [ID:nRISKUS]
The high jobless rate is dragging on the Democrats' poll ratings and Republicans might win control of the House and probably pick up seats in the Senate.
The Obama administration has pledged to begin selling down its stake in GM as soon as practical and had said that process would begin in late 2010 at the time GM exited bankruptcy last year.
A final decision on how much of its stake in GM the U.S. Treasury will sell in an IPO will be made in consultations led by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers after the terms of the deal are established, sources have said.
GM is waiting for its S-1 filing to be approved by the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.
Its shares will trade on both the New York Stock Exchange and the Toronto Stock Exchange since both the U.S. and Canadian governments helped bail it out. (Reporting by Clare Baldwin and Soyoung Kim in New York and Kevin Krolicki in Detroit; Editing by Richard Chang)

 

[Geller]

NewCo GM sempre più vicina all'IPO ... !

GM punta ritorno in Borsa a novembre

Subito dopo le elezioni americane di medio termine

(ANSA) - ROMA, 2 SET 2010

General Motors ha in programma di tornare in Borsa a novembre dopo le elezioni americane di medio termine.
Lo scrive l'agenzia Reuters che cita due fonti vicine al dossier secondo cui il debutto alla borsa Usa, dopo la nuova Ipo, e' previsto per il 18 novembre. Il roadshow dovrebbe iniziare il 3 novembre, il giorno successivo alle elezioni, e il prezzo dell'offerta dovrebbe essere fissato il 17 novembre.

 

[GiveMeLeverage]

elaboriamo, in maniera semplificata. con una premessa: ovviamente si tratta di un problema che colpisce prevalentemente chi ha un nominale basso, quindi maggiormente chi ha, probabilmente, acquistato una cifra relativamente piccola, ad un costo alto. Gli "sporchi speculatori" dell'ultimo momento, per il fatto stesso di avere comperato a valori molto bassi, risentono in maniera inferiore o quasi per nulla del problema, come chi ne detiene grandi quantità (fondi, etc.).

prendo per buone le valutazioni fatte da uno dei più profondi conoscitori della storia GM relativamente al numero di azioni e warrant che verranno probabilmente assegnati, ovvero 1.42 azioni e 1.225 + 1.225 warrant per ogni $1.000 di nominale.

Ipotesi che si riesca a vendere l'azione a $150, e di un nominale di obbligazioni di $ 7.000.

in teoria:

$7.000 = 9.94 azioni e 8.575 warrant a $ 30 + 8.575 warrant a $ 55

quindi recovery (semplificando) di $ 1.491 dalla vendita delle azioni, $ 1.029 + $ 815 dalla vendita dei warrant, pari a circa $3.335 (47.6% del nominale).

Per effetto degli arrotondamenti, si avrà, invece:

$ 1.350 dalla vendita delle 9 azioni, $ 960 + $ 760 dalla vendita degli 8 + 8 warrant, pari a circa $ 3.070 (43.8% del nominale).

esclusi dal calcolo i costi di vendita di warrant e azioni, ovviamente.

Nell'esempio proposto converrebbe o vendere $2.000 di nominale di bond GM, o acquistarne $3.000, in questo modo il recovery si alzerebbe al 46,80% (escludendo spese e spread denaro-lettera).
Ovviamente bisognerebbe concludere l'operazione dopo aver avuto la certezza sulle proporzioni del concambio, ma prima dell'assegnazione di azioni + warrant...

PS:
io sono uno sporco speculatore e, sempre prendendo per buoni i valori di assegnazione postati (di sharkiana origine? ), risentirei marginalmente dell'effetto arrotondamento (per uno 0,04%).
Però ho i bond in euro, quindi il calcolo si complica ulteriormente (in compenso il recovery rispetto ai $bonds si alza, ma temo che il 47% sia un po' troppo ottimistico, $150/share lo ritengo un prezzo eccessivo, stiamo a vedere che forchetta proporrà GM...)

 

[Geller]

Una simpatica sinergia NewCo GM - Ford

GM’s OnStar said to consider free services, targeting Ford

Automotive News

DETROIT 07.09.2010 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Co.’s OnStar in-car communications unit may offer some free services next year to rival Ford Motor Co.’s Sync music and information system, two people familiar with the plans said.

OnStar, a subscription service that provides accident alerts, directions and vehicle diagnostics, is scheduled to introduce an upgraded system this month that links vehicles to the social media site Facebook and translates voice messages to text, said the people, who asked not to be identified because the details aren’t public.

In-car technology features attract tech-savvy consumers and allow carmakers to charge more for smaller, cheaper models, said Brandy Schaffels, an analyst at TrueCar.com. GM, the largest U.S. automaker, is adding features to keep pace with systems including Ford’s Sync.

“When Ford came out with Sync, they met OnStar’s services and upped the ante,” Schaffels, content manager at the California-based researcher, said in an interview. “Technological features are where GM and Ford are going to found their reputation with the next generation.”

OnStar may begin offering entertainment and information services that link to a user’s smartphone without a subscription or fee, said one of the people. OnStar is now offered free in many models for the first year and then for $199 to $299 a year, depending on the features.

Jocelyn Allen, a spokeswoman for OnStar, declined to comment.

Voice-to-text

The voice-to-text system will be studied with a test audience while the company decides whether to offer it to all customers, the person said. The new version of OnStar will have enhanced services for emergency response, which alerts an OnStar operator when there is a vehicle crash, the person said.
OnStar will unveil a new advertising theme with the tagline “Live On,” while individual services will have their own themes, such as “Always On” to promote accident alerts, the people said.
The unit also is studying ways to use OnStar outside of the car, where immediate contact with an operator or access to other services such as safety or security might be useful, said the people, who declined to give specifics.
OnStar, available on more than 40 vehicles from GM’s 2011 model year, has about 5.7 million subscribers, according to a GM regulatory filing. OnStar and Google Inc. said in June they would partner to offer eNav, a turn-by-turn navigation feature that allows drivers to send Google Maps destinations to their vehicle.

Ford Sync

Ford has been selling Sync, based on Microsoft Corp.’s in- car, voice-activated technology, since the 2008 model year, Alan Hall, a Ford spokesman, said in a telephone interview. The company added features such as touch-command controls and voice-activated climate control this year.
The technology, available as a $395 option on some models, helps make cars more profitable and is included standard on higher-end vehicles.
Ford said in January it plans to bring social networking, Web browsing and thumb controls similar to those on Apple Inc.’s iPod into 80 percent of its models by 2015.




http://www.autonews.com/apps/pbcs.dl...plate=printart

 

[Geller]

13.09.2010 MILANO (MF-DJ)-- Oltre 1.735 concessionari Chrysler si raduneranno martedi' prossimo in Florida, all'interno dell'Orange County Convention Center di Orlando, per osservare da vicino le nuove vetture pronte a sbarcare sul mercato nei prossimi mesi, inclusi alcuni modelli della controllante Fiat. Lo scrive il Wall Street Journal, rimarcando come tra i modelli che verranno mostrati, ci saranno nuove versioni per la 500 e per il Dodge Durango. Linee rinfrescate per cercare di attrarre nuovi compratori da parte di Chrysler, indispensabili per cercare di restituire ossigeno a un mercato che sul fronte dei pick up e delle grandi berline sta segnando il passo. All'incontro sara' presente anche Sergio Marchionne, che sara' raggiunto dagli a.d. del gruppo. E' prevista una sessione di domande e risposte di 90 minuti, durante cui i top manager risponderanno alle domande dei concessionari, spiegando, tra le altre cose, per quale motivo il gruppo abbia deciso di reintrodurre il brand Fiat negli Stati Uniti dopo un'assenza di quasi 30 anni. Una delle richieste che invece verra' avanzata da parte del management sara' di incoraggiare i venditori a tenere aperti i battenti dei concessionari per qualche ora ogni sabato. L'obiettivo e' di far salire l'attuale 68% del totale all'80% entro la fine del 2011. "Dobbiamo fornire risposte ai clienti se questi ultimi vogliono acquistare, o piu' semplicemente cambiare l'olio durante il sabato", ha rimarcato Pietro Gorlier, a.d. di Mopar. "I concessionari che gia' oggi stanno aperti di sabato hanno riscontrato un eccellente successo dell'iniziativa e hanno visto il loro business relativo ai cambi d'olio motore incrementato del 20%". Il manager ha anche mostrato alcune statistiche dei competitor: il 95% dei concessionari Toyota e' aperto di sabato, cosi' come il 100% di quelli Lexus e l'85% di Ford.red/est/ofb (fine) MF-DJ NEWS 1310:47 set 2010

 

[bola do ferro]

What GM Bonds are really worth

There was a calculation some posts before, how much the gm-bonds could be worth after IPO.
I don't like to critizise, but a correction may be necessary.
If there are some experts out there, look at my numbers und say if you think i am wright or not.
.
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I put in one variable, 70 billion of expected market capitalization of New GM
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10 % of 500 million shares for the bondholder makes 50 millions shares of New GM. That makes 1,78 shares per 1000 $ nominal debt, worth 250 $. ( One share will be worth 140 $).
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Warrant 1 (exercise at 30 $): 1000 $ Bond-debt (of total aprox. 27 billion) will receive 1,62 warrants worth 178 $ (One Warrant will be worth 140 - 30 = 110 $).
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Warrant 2 (exercise at 55 $): 1000 $ Bond-debt (of total aprox. 27 billion) will receive 1,62 warrants worth 138 $ (One Warrant will be worth 140 - 55 = 85 $).
.
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All together: Bondholder will receive 566 $ of 1000 $ nominal GM-Bond debt.
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Big Question: Why are GM-Bonds hanging around at 32 in the moment?
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1. The amount of additinal claims in class 3 (bondholders and others unsec debtors) is unknown. As they will give 12 instead of 10 % full shares to class 3 debtors, when all accepted debt claims will exceed 35 billions, you can estimate, that the 27-billion-bondholder claims can be diluted up to 20 % or so.
I suppose they can estimate now already, how much the bondholder part will be diluted, even if judge Gerber has the final decision. I think they dont't want to publish estimations.
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2. Because normally they will offer NEW GM shares to big investors with a big discount of up to 20 % below the so called fair price, the price of the bonds can not exceed the discount price in the moment.
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3. There are some other common risks for example market conditions, surprising events, data and news of GM, a lower market cap of GM than expected, and so on.
Conclusion: Even if there could be a real chance of share-price between 120-150 $ after ipo, the bond price of 32 in the moment represent all the risks i mentioned.
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If someone find interesting this post, please translate into italian, thanks and obrigado

 

[bola do ferro]

hello,
excuse me. I didn't see the post of "GiveMeLeverage", because i don't speak italian, i didn't expect to find .... o.k.

I said 70 B market cap is equal to 140 per share, because I think in the first days after ipo there will be only very few owners be ready to exercise their warrants.
So 500 millions of shares and a market cap of 70 B makes 140 $/share. Or near to 140 $ when few warrants are sold. In the future, the dilution by exercising warrants could be compensated by other effects (rising stock prices. Exercising also brings in some money, rise company value).


I would like to ask "GiveMeLeverage", where remains in your calculation the 10 million shares bondholders get, when accepted unsec claims reach 35 billion nominal debt.
You mention 2,9 million shares, are they only representing what exceeds 35 B nom debt? If there would be a linear function it is explainable in this way. But 2,9 millions shares could not represent the difference between 10 and 12 % shares for the bondholder.

Another question. Who will participate in the warrants? Only the pure Bondholders or other accepted claims in class 3?

When boldholders will get shares and warrants? Seems to be unclear ... I thought the bondholders accepted a quick rinse bankrupty because everything is clear determined.

One good day in october or november some decisions and determinations of court and SEC will come. Could this bring a jump in the bond prices?

Let me add this is an excellent forum, you treat the GM issue very well.