Obbligazioni societarie GM, Ford, Chrysler: il 3D dell'automotive USA

outstanding interests in gm-bonds are lost?

I had a dispute some time ago on a german bond board, if the outstanding interests of the gm-bonds will be paid in the form of more shares.

I said, the maximum I am expecting is the recovery rate for the interests. If the bonds are worth 40 %, the missing 7 % for the Euro-2033 will mean for the investor 7 % x 0,4 = 2,8 % more value, so he will get 42,8 % recovery.

But when I compare the gm-bond prices in USA in respect of the coupon date, I don't see differences because of different coupon dates. The bonds with higher trade volume are trading always 1-2,5 points higher. That's all. A bond with low trade volume can be at 32, with a coupon date 15-07-XXXX, - another bond with similar coupon rate, but traded high (2033) and the same coupon date may be at 34,5 the same day.

I dont't believe the US-people investigating millions of $ are stupid or lazy and would treat all the bonds equal, if they were equal. For me more a proof, that the outstanding interests of the gm-bonds are lost.

So who is wright? Is the anwer of the revovery of the interests already on the table? Or may be still decided by Mr. Gerber?


Ahhhh ...., my crystal ball says, gm-bondholder will get there shares on November, 17, beginning at 21 GMT. I asked my crystal ball, "Why so late in the night?" I got no answer.
 
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Anche gli arabi nel capitale di GM

Da "Il Sole 24 Ore" di oggi
 

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A questo punto credo che la cosa più importante non è sapere quanti sono realmente i claims per quantificare il debito esatto della old GM (ritengo sia un calcolo comunque difficile da appurare con esattezza), ma che l'Ipo di Novembre sia un buon trampolino di lancio per la futura GM e che la capitalizzazione possa salire nel corso del 2011, quando saranno poi assegnate le azioni e i warrants agli obbligazionisti unsecured.
 
scusate ....
solo da pochissimo seguo questa discussione
mi date qualche indicazione su eventuali post precedenti che fanno il punto sulle effettive possibilità di acquisto e prospettive di rimborso dei bonds GM
grazie
 
GM gets 'junk' credit rating from Fitch - Yahoo! Finance

Fitch is giving General Motors Co. a junk-level credit rating, saying its pensions remain underfunded and the auto market remains uncertain.It's the automaker's first credit rating since emerging from bankruptcy protection last year. The rating of "BB-" comes as the automaker is preparing an initial public offering of stock, likely to come in mid-November.
The ratings agency says GM has come a long way since bankruptcy. It says it has a strong cash position, a better cost structure and an increasingly competitive lineup of cars and trucks.
But auto industry sales remain weak, and GM still has large cash obligations tied to the reorganization of its business in Europe. Its pension obligations are also underfunded by $27 billion.

La rating action... ;)
 

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GM Gets Ba2 Credit Rating From Moody?s, Same as Ford - Bloomberg

General Motors Co. was given the same credit rating by Moody’s Investors Service as Ford Motor Co., citing the largest U.S. automaker’s low costs and position in the global vehicle market.
GM was rated Ba2, the second level below investment grade, with a stable outlook, New York-based Moody’s said today in a statement. The firm rates an anticipated GM secured credit facility as Baa3, the lowest investment-grade level. GM hasn’t publicly disclosed the facility’s terms.
“GM has the potential to become a more formidable player in the global automotive arena,” J. Bruce Clark, a Moody’s senior vice president, wrote today in the statement. Clark cited GM’s position in North America, Asia and Latin America, and said GM would have “one of the more balanced global footprints in the industry” if it fixes the unprofitable European business.
Moody’s raised Dearborn, Michigan-based Ford’s rating by two levels to Ba2 on Oct. 8, saying the automaker’s operating performance “significantly exceeded” expectations. The upgrade to Ford’s corporate family rating was the fifth by Moody’s in 13 months.

L'upgrade di Ford...
 

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Intanto il WSJ pubblica questo:

GM to Cut Debt by $11 Billion


General Motors Co. announced a series of actions to reduce debt and improve the auto maker's pension funding position, adding the actions are expected to reduce net interest cost and preferred dividends by $500 million a year.

The capital actions, which are conditional upon completion of the company's planned initial public offering, include the purchase of $2.1 billion of 9% Series A preferred stock held by the U.S. Department of Treasury at a price equal to 102% of the liquidation amount. The company will record a $700 million charge for the difference between the purchase price and the recorded value of the stock.

It also expects to contribute at least $4 billion in cash and $2 billion in stock to GM's U.S. hourly and salaried pension plans. Along with the repayment of secured notes and the completion of a $5 billion, five-year revolving credit facility, the actions are expected to reduce leverage by $11 billion.

GM, 61%-controlled by the U.S. government after a bailout and bankruptcy restructuring, plans to launch an IPO to allow the U.S. government to start offloading its stake. Some speculate the event will occur next month.

Crosstown rival Ford Motor Co. on Tuesday said it paid down its revolving credit line by $2 billion, which brings the debt load on Ford's automotive operations to $26.4 billion as of Sept. 30. Additional debt-reduction measures should reduce annual interest expenses by $800 million, according to Ford.
 
Sempre dal Wsj:Weighing New GM's Resale Value

DETROIT—General Motors Co. has made progress tidying up its balance sheet ahead of a planned initial public stock offering next month, but there's still a big question it has to answer for potential investors: Is GM fixed?

The auto maker said Thursday that it will return another $2.1 billion of the nearly $50 billion in bailout funds it got from U.S. taxpayers. The repayment was one of a series of moves GM, which is majority owned by the federal government, announced to reduce its liabilities and show financial strength ahead of the IPO.
GM said it will repay the money by buying back 83.9 million preferred shares owned by the U.S. Treasury. In a separate move, it said it will immediately pay $2.8 billion to reduce the amount it owes to a trust fund that covers the cost of health care for retired workers.

After the IPO, the auto maker plans to cut its liabilities further by contributing $4 billion in cash and $2 billion in stock to employee pension funds.

All told, the moves will use $10.9 billion, but will save about $500 million a year in interest payments. GM will be left with $24 billion in liquidity, including a backup $5 billion revolving credit line, which company executives believe is enough to keep it moving forward, especially now that it is making money again.

The stock buyback from the Treasury is significant because the Obama administration is seeking to recoup the entire $49.5 billion that taxpayers poured into GM, starting in the final days of the George W. Bush administration. With Thursday's deal, GM will have returned about $9.5 billion of that money, through loan repayments, interest charges and dividends, the Treasury said.

During a stay in bankruptcy court last year, GM slashed its debt and costs, halved the number of brands it sells and swept out its entrenched leadership in favor of aggressive newcomers.

Bolstered by a new, lower-cost union contract, some strong-selling models and an improving economy, GM reported a $2.2 billion profit for this year's first half, a sharp turnaround after losing nearly $90 billion between 2005 and its bankruptcy filing in June 2009. GM's U.S. sales rose 6.8% in the first nine months of 2010.

But, as for whether GM is fixed, the answer is yes—but not completely. Many problems linger.

GM's U.S. market share slipped 2.8 percentage points this year through September as overall car sales recovered. One reason is the company still doesn't make enough models that appeal to a broad spectrum of Americans, particularly young, urban drivers and those on both coasts.

GM faces intense competition from a resurgent Ford Motor Co. and newer rivals such as Korea's Hyundai Motor Co., as well as Toyota Motor Corp., which remains a formidable competitor despite its safety recalls. In Europe, GM has racked up years of losses at its Adam Opel GmbH unit.

While bankruptcy did GM much good, it also left the company with a gap in its product pipeline because development of some models was frozen for months as the company slid toward Chapter 11.

GM also has an image problem. Its bailout came as anti-government sentiment was rising, and many consumers and lawmakers see GM as "Government Motors" because of the Treasury's 61% stake in the company.

Here's a look at what GM has fixed—and what remains to be done.
What's Fixed

Bankruptcy finally enabled GM to shrink its North American operations to fit a smaller and more competitive market. It abandoned 14 of its 47 North American plants, shut down its slow-selling Hummer, Pontiac and Saturn brands, and sold Saab, allowing it to put more resources into Chevrolet, Cadillac, Buick and GMC.

Perhaps the biggest achievement of GM's 41-day stay in bankruptcy court is its new balance sheet. After the measures outlined on Thursday, GM has just $8.2 billion in debt, down from $45.9 billion before it filed for court protection. GM also has $24 billion in cash, $4 billion more than at the end of 2009.

A big part of the debt reduction came from a deal with the United Auto Workers. GM was obligated to pay billions of dollars into a trust fund to cover health care for retired union workers. Instead of paying in cash, GM won union approval to put stock into the trust, which is now GM's second-largest shareholder, with a 17.5% stake.
The cost reductions are boosting the bottom line. In the second quarter, GM made $2,009 on every vehicle it produced in North America. In the three months before it went into Chapter 11, GM lost $4,081 on every car or truck it made in the region.

That the company can make money with U.S. car sales at around 10.5 million a year—compared with 16 million annually earlier this decade—means it should profit handsomely when sales recover further.

For years, GM hurt itself by running too many plants and making more cars than consumers cared to buy. But after closing so many plants, GM has gotten supply in line with demand, and its plants are more productive. In the second quarter, GM's North American factories operated at 93% of capacity, up from 40% a year earlier.

Now some new models are selling at higher prices. The recently redesigned Buick LaCrosse sedan typically sells for $30,000 to $40,000, according to dealers—about $7,000 more than the old version.

In China, GM's joint ventures are booming and it is now the top-selling foreign brand, having overtaken Volkswagen AG. This year, for the first time, GM is selling more vehicles in China than in the U.S.

GM's progress has come under a new board and management team. In the past, GM tended to deliberate endlessly over even minor decisions, delaying tough action.

During GM's bankruptcy, the Treasury stocked the GM board with industry outsiders. Edward E. Whitacre Jr., a no-nonsense Texan who spent most of his career building SBC Communications Inc. into a telecommunications giant, was named chairman. Another telecom deal maker, Daniel F. Akerson, also joined the board.

In December 2009, Mr. Whitacre wanted faster change and took the chief executive post himself, ousting GM veteran Frederick "Fritz" Henderson. The chairman shook up other management as well.
What Needs Work

Though GM is making money and has a clean balance sheet, one of its trouble spots is pensions for its retired workers. The company has more than $27 billion in outstanding pension obligations. Of that, payments totaling $10 billion are due in 2014 and 2015. Making such payments could hamper GM's ability to develop new models and modernize operations.

In Europe, GM's is closing an Opel plant in Belgium as part of a turnaround plan, but also needs to raise market share—a difficult feat in the competitive European market. In private, GM's advisers and some board members acknowledge getting Opel to break even may be the best the company can do.

Questions still hover over GM's executive suite. Mr. Akerson, now CEO, has been at the helm fewer than 60 days, and has little experience running a large manufacturing company.

Speaking to reporters in September, he conceded that the company has a long way to go. "The GM we know today will not be the GM we see five to 10 years from now," he said.

While GM's U.S. sales rose 6.8% in the first nine months of the year, its increase has been fueled by higher sales to rental-car companies and other "fleet" customers. Sales to individual buyers—which generally are more profitable and a truer measure of a car maker's ability to win customers—were down about 2%, according to people familiar with the matter.

In an effort to spark enthusiasm for the Chevrolet brand–which now accounts for more than two-thirds of its sales–GM this week announced plans to blanket the airwaves with a new, Americana-themed ad campaign.

Changing consumer perceptions is easier if an auto maker launches new, head-turning models. GM has that in the form of the Chevrolet Volt, the battery-powered car due in December, and some new small cars, including compacts for Buick and Cadillac.

Beyond that, GM has some holes in its lineup. Bankruptcy forced it o freeze development of several vehicle lines, including a new generation of full-size pickups and sport-utility vehicles. That means GM won't be able to wow potential investors by pointing to a string of high-profit models waiting in the wings. GM won't have new trucks to offer until at least 2013, though it could update current models.

Privately, GM executives acknowledge weakness in the company's product line that could hurt its competitiveness over the next few years.

GM has committed almost $1 billion to revamp its big trucks and SUVs and tripled the size of its truck-design studio to be able to develop SUVs alongside pickups, rather than separately. "We are moving as fast as we can," said GM's design chief, Ed Welburn, in an interview. "But you can only speed things up so much."
 
Veloce schema excel per valutare il recovery sulla totalità dei bond in base all'ultimo filing (split 3 a 1, forchetta di prezzo per azione da $26 a $29).


PS:
attenzione, il recovery stimato si riferisce alla totalità dei bondholder.
Bond diversi avranno però percentuali di recovery leggermente diverse, in funzione del rateo e della valuta.
Quindi p.e. i bond in dollari (che hanno rateo minore) avranno un recovery minore di quello esposto, i bond in euro (che hanno rateo maggiore e beneficiano, almeno finora, dell'effetto cambio) un recovery maggiore.
 

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