Obbligazioni societarie GM, Ford, Chrysler: il 3D dell'automotive USA

[GiveMeLeverage]

bola do ferro, welcome to our message board.

GiveMeLeverage gave us a great insight as to what recovery could be for BH, depending on GM market Cap.

You follow a different route in your calculation, so I'll try to stick to your approach.

Big IF: why $ 120 per share? That's your decision...

Still, a few additional points:

as you mentioned nobody knows hoow many unsecured claims will be allowed. Not even the judge, I'm sorry, as the debtor is still rejecting claims.

We have an estimate from GM, as they had to mention this problem in their filing for the IPO. It could be right, but nobody knows for sure.

I just underlined that even some asbestos claims will be treated as unsecured claims. Are you sure this calculation is already available?

When will shares and warrants be made available to unsecured creditors? Timing may effect the value of a financial instrument...

Rounding up (sorry, down)... you're buying something that hasn't a sure value (although this is not a major problem for those investing large amounts of money).

I may have forgotten something...

Thank you very much for the "great insight"
A minor correction: bola de ferro's hypothesis was a share price of $140, not $120.

Why is his result so different from mine (market Cap of B$ 70 = recovery of 56,6% versus recovery of 30%)?
I think the answer is in the number of shares:
- bola assumes 500 million shares (which is the number of shares already issued by GM)
- I assume more than 600 million shares (on a fully diluted basis)

Additionally, I consider the B$ 9 of Series A Preferred Stock as equity (not as a liability), so I have to sum this B$ 9 to the Market Cap.


PS:
Sorry for my bad English, I hope it's understandable.

 

[GiveMeLeverage]

[..]

I would like to ask "GiveMeLeverage", where remains in your calculation the 10 million shares bondholders get, when accepted unsec claims reach 35 billion nominal debt.
You mention 2,9 million shares, are they only representing what exceeds 35 B nom debt? If there would be a linear function it is explainable in this way. But 2,9 millions shares could not represent the difference between 10 and 12 % shares for the bondholder.

[..]

Additional shares:
lf you look at the S1 form filed by GM on 8/18/2010 you will find the answer to your question.
Briefly: 10 million additional shares is a maximum if GUCs (general unsecured claims) total B$ 42 or more; and from B$ 35 to B$ 42 it's a linear function as you correctly surmised.

additional shares = 10 million * (GUCs - B$ 35) / (B$ 42 - B$ 35)

 

[GiveMeLeverage]

Another question. Who will participate in the warrants? Only the pure Bondholders or other accepted claims in class 3?

The second one, since everybody in class 3 has the same rights.

One good day in october or november some decisions and determinations of court and SEC will come. Could this bring a jump in the bond prices?

Probably.. but it's difficult to know in advance in which direction the jump will be...

 

[bola do ferro]

leverage, thanks a lot for your helpful answers,

to foresee in which direcion the bond price will jump, I have a "bola de vidro" in my house, so there is no problem.

 

[Geller]

Fiat-Crysler in simbiosi sempre più profonda

Fiat, sindacato Usa Uaw incontrerà Marchionne settimana prossima


DETROIT, 21 settembre (Reuters) - Gli alti funzionari del sindacato United Auto Workers si recheranno in Italia la prossima settimana per incontrare l'amministratore delegato di Fiat Sergio Marchionne e cercare di portare posti di lavoro negli Stati Uniti.
Il presidente Uaw Bob King visiterà gli stabilimenti Fiat per vedere il sistema di produzione che la casa automobilistica italiana ha iniziato a introdurre negli impianti di Chrysler negli Stati Uniti, ha detto King a Reuters in un'intervista.

Allo stesso tempo, il sindacato spera di convincere i fornitori di Fiat a spostare i servizi nelle aziende rappresentati da UAW in Nord America per una maggiore integrazione Fiat-Chrysler.

"Abbiamo intenzione di chiedere ai fornitori di venire qui a trasferirirsi nel Michigan" ha detto King.

Chrysler, che è stata ristrutturata dopo il fallimento dall'amministrazione Obama, ha operato sotto la gestione di Marchionne negli ultimi 16 mesi.

Un fondo fiduciario istituito per pagare i costi di assistenza sanitaria per i pensionati rappresentati da UAW-Chrysler detiene il 55% della casa automobilistica.

King, che ha preso l'incarico della UAW nel giugno 2010, ha detto che è stato colpito dai piani di Fiat per rilanciare la linea di veicoli di Chrysler e il suo approccio collaborativo con il sindacato.

"E 'tutta una questione di prodotto. I piani di Sergio sono veramente positivi" ha detto King. "Questo e il suo atteggiamento di 'facciamo insieme'.

 

[Geller]

Treasury May Be Only Seller in GM IPO: Sources - ABC News

NEW YORK/DETROIT (Reuters) - The United Auto Workers health care trust and the governments of Canada and Ontario may not participate in General Motors Co's upcoming IPO in order to avoid taking a cut on the price of their shares, three people with knowledge of the matter said on Friday.
If GM's second and third largest shareholders opt to hold their shares beyond the IPO, that would leave the Treasury as the only stakeholder selling shares and could mean that the total value of the deal could be at the low end of market expectations.
The U.S. Treasury is still aiming to sell at least 20 percent of its stake in order to become a minority shareholder in the top U.S. automaker, five people familiar with the matter said.
The UAW's trust fund for retiree health care -- known as the VEBA -- and Canada together hold just under 30 percent of GM common stock as a result of the automaker's restructuring in a U.S. government directed bankruptcy in 2009.
Both VEBA managers and Canadian officials have raised the possibility of waiting until follow-on stock offerings in order to avoid offering the hefty discounts typically required for initial offerings, the sources said.
All of the people with knowledge of the discussions asked not to be named because preparations for the deal remain private and tightly controlled by U.S. securities laws.
IPOs are typically discounted 10 percent to 15 percent from theoretical fair value to reward investors for taking a risk on a new issue and pave the way for future stock floats.
In GM's IPO, the discount could be as much as 20 percent, sources have said. By comparison, follow-on offerings are typically priced just 3 percent to 7 percent below market.

 

[leodetti]

bondisti gm in balia della corrente

buongiorno a tutti
è dall'insinuazione collettiva fatta a mio nome dalla mia banca che non ricevo notizie di come sia andata a finire x noi possessori di obbligazioni gm.
a qualcuno di voi è stato comunicato qualcosa ?
ci daranno in cambio dei ns. vecchi bond azioni della nuova gm, quando e quale sarà il concambio ?
ringrazio e saluto
leodetti(at)yahoo(dot)it

 

[leodetti]

bondista gm

grazie mille paologorgo
se sai altre news scrivile sul forum
leodetti(at)yahoo(dot)it

 

[Yunus80]

Ho editato il tuo indirizzo email, che se no ti trovi la casella postale piena di spam...

 

[stockuccio]

in effetti .... 30,2 miliardi di avviamento per una società in ch11 ...

intanto, nel maturo settore automotive ci sta pure chi, come la geely (quelli che han comprato la volvo), vuole vendere online