Obbligazioni societarie GM, Ford, Chrysler: il 3D dell'automotive USA

[reef]

Restructuring plan GM e Chrysler

Qui ci sono i due plans in PDF da scaricare e un interessante commento, soprattutto per gli ottimisti su GM (invece su Chrysler )
http://blog.robertsalomon.com/

Perdonatemi se li avete già postati


PS Per i pessimisti: http://seekingalpha.com/article/121126-for-your-amusement-general-motors-restructuring-plan

 

[paologorgo]

A group representing General Motors Corp. bondholders fears that the auto maker's latest restructuring plan fails to address all the challenges facing the company and doesn't cut costs enough in light of the deteriorating economy, a person familiar with the bond negotiations said Wednesday.
The group is at the center of negotiations to reduce GM's $27 billion in unsecured debt through a debt-for-equity swap, a key piece of the auto maker's plan to escape bankruptcy. GM, which has received $13.4 billion in federal loans so far, on Tuesday submitted a revised survival plan and asked for an additional $16.6 billion, citing a deepening global sales slump. If GM fails to cut a deal with bondholders and get the debt exchange started by March 31, the earlier funding would be at risk under the loan terms.

Chrysler, GM and Ford are looking for hefty sums to get through the economic recession. But why should they receive government aid? WSJ reporter John Stoll lays out the companies' arguments.

The recovery plan GM presented to the federal government Tuesday evening calls for cutting 47,000 jobs around the world, cllosing five additional pllants in North America and eliminating four of the auto maker's eight brands. "The question is, did they go far enough, or are they just layering debt onto debt?" the person said. "They need the company to drive hard so it is competitive soon, not in 2012."
Word of the discontent among bondholders surfaced as President Barack Obama's auto task force was preparing to meet Friday to begin weighing the recovery plans put forward by GM and Chrysler LLC, amid concerns that the bailout costs could swell if the economy continues to sour.
Chrysler, which has received $4 billion in loans, asked for an additional $5 billion in the plan it submitted Tuesday. The session, to be led by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers, will mark the start of a grueling month of negotiations between the administration and the car makers over how to reconfigure a large chunk of the U.S. auto industry.
The GM plan -- by far the largest of the two -- relies on assumptions that, if unmet, could make the proposed federal assistance far more costly than the $16.6 billion the company says it needs. GM is already banking, for instance, on $7.7 billion in loans from the Energy Department to develop more fuel-efficient technology, but those loans remain up in the air.
Another uncertainty: the stability of GM's myriad suppliers, including Delphi Corp., the parts division spun off by GM a decade ago that's now in Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. GM's plan proposes that the government create, by next month, a $4.5 billion credit-insurance program to guarantee payments to the country's hard-hit parts makers. It also suggests that the government may have to provide significant aid to Delphi so it can emerge from Chapter 11.
In addition, GM said in the plan that its troubled financing arm, GMAC Financial Services, may need more federal assistance unless creditors begin to look more favorably on the unit. The Treasury Department put $5 billion into GMAC in December.

Sen. Bob Corker of Tennessee, a lead Republican during December's negotiations over aid to the car industry, said the two auto makers' plans were at best "a work in progress" that raised a number of troubling questions.
GM is working on a deal with its bondholders to restructure $27 billion in company debt. But even under the most optimistic scenario, government loans would more than replace GM's public debt. "If you pile on U.S. taxpayer debt, aren't you just trading debt for debt?" asked Sen. Corker in an interview. "Aren't you just getting your capital structure right back in the same place?"
Besides criticism from Washington and bondholders, the auto makers face tense negotiations with the United Auto Workers over labor-cost reductions.
On Tuesday, representatives of the bondholder committee said GM needs "shared sacrifice from all stakeholders" and that the panel requires more information on the terms being worked out between GM and the UAW. GM is in talks with the union to restructure $20 billion in obligations to retired hourly workers.
The panel submitted a framework for GM's attempt to restructure debt earlier this week; details of that plan haven't emerged.

—Stephen Power contributed to this articleWrite to Sharon Terlep at [email protected] and Neil King Jr. at [email protected]

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB123500467245718075.html?mod=yahoo_hs&ru=yahoo

 

[lupomar]

comunque finira' ci saranno vincitori e vinti anche qui e sul FOL. spero solo che non si azzuffino a suon di "te l'avevo detto".

per quanto mi riguarda son dentro alle 2033 con pochi K ma solo ed unicamente in ottica speculativa. se mi andra' bene, bene e senno' amen. pero' non rompo e non rompero' le palle a nessuno se mi andra' male.

Anch'io la scommessa l'ho fatta, così seguo la telenovela con maggior interesse. Poi se andrà male sono consapevole che di scommessa si tratta (sul 2033 a 16!!!) e se andrà bene... meglio così.

Comunque per me finora hanno ragione tutt'e due le fazioni:

- qualche hanno fa quando i bond quotavano a prezzi "non da fallimento" era giusto vendere e quindi i98mark e gaudente avevano ragione.

- adesso che il 2033 quota 14-15 e il 2013 20-22 la scommessa, essendo consapevoli che di scommessa si tratta, ci sta. Questo perché, semplificando al massimo, Obama in campagna elettorale un po' di promesse le aveva fatte e perché, tra la bancarotta a rimborso zero per gli obbligazionisti, e il pagamento delle cedole a 8,375 da qui al 2033 e il rimborso a 100, in mezzo ci sono un sacco di altre possibilità (leggi rinegoziazione del debito) che per uno entrato a questi prezzi possono essere comunque un affare.

 

[Imark]

Secondo la radio svedese, Saab (controllata svedese di GM) si accingerebbe a decidere oggi o nei prossimi giorni se chiedere l'amministrazione controllata dopo il fallimento dei negoziati di GM con il Governo svedese circa l'erogazione di possibili aiuti al produttore.

Aggiungo che questa circostanza, confermata da più fonti, la dice lunga anche sulla possibilità di fare cassa mediante la cessione di determinati asset, di cui pure si era parlato nei mesi scorso. Se effettivamente Saab andasse in amministrazione controllata chiedendo la protezione dai creditori, vorrebbe dire probabilmente che nelle condizioni attuali nessuno era disposto a rilevarla.

UPDATE 1-Saab to decide on reorganisation filing Thurs -radio
Thu Feb 19, 2009 9:56am GMT

(Adds Saab declines comment, background, comment)

STOCKHOLM, Feb 19 (Reuters) - General Motors' loss-making Swedish carmaker Saab could decide on Thursday to file for reorganisation which would grant it protection from creditors, Swedish radio reported.

A reorganisation filing, which is an alternative to an outright bankruptcy filing, would be made with a Swedish court after which the viability of continuing operations is assessed.

Saab's board was scheduled to meet on Thursday morning and would then decide to request a reorganisation of the carmaker, public service radio reported without disclosing its sources.

A Saab spokeswoman declined to comment on if a decision on reorganisation was expected today or if the company's board was scheduled to meet on Thursday.

GM said earlier this week that Saab could file for reorganisation as early as this month and that it still hoped to reach an agreement with Sweden on aid for the brand.

However, the Swedish government said on Wednesday it ruled out owning carmakers or their factories and accused GM of shirking its responsibility as an owner and that talks over state aid for Saab lacked a realistic basis.

Martin Skold, an assistant professor at the Stockholm School of Economics, who analyses the car industry, said the reorganisation would need to define the legal relationship between Saab and its parent GM.

Cutting legal ties could save GM hundreds of millions of dollars in costs if Saab were to go bankrupt.

In a business reorganisation, the company seeks protection from creditors while it comes up with a plan to become profitable. It is an alternative to bankruptcy, said Sven Save at Ackordscentralen, a Swedish consultancy firm which handles insolvency issues.

A reconstruction plan could mean measures such as job cuts, a sale of assets or a debt writedown.

Creditors who risk not getting any money at all if the company goes bankrupt, have to be convinced at a first court hearing that lowering their claims is in their best interest.

If no creditors object to the plan at the start of the procedures, they cannot demand a liquidation of the company in a later stage of the reoganisation which can last up to a year.

Joran Hagglund, state secretary at the Swedish Industry Ministry, said he had no information on if Saab was set to apply for reorganisation and that the government was monitoring developments.

"We continue to analyse the situation and what can happen if there is a reorganisation," Hagglund told Reuters.

GM said in its restructuring plan submitted to the U.S. Treasury on Tuesday that it would cap its financial support for Saab and aimed for the Swedish unit to become an independent business as of Jan. 1, 2010. (Reporting by Anna Ringstrom, Victoria Klesty; writing by Niklas Pollard; editing by Simon Jessop)

 

[Imark]

Qualche dettaglio in più su come è andata la vicenda: in pratica, il Governo svedese si sarebbe negato alla richiesta di GM di mettere dei soldi in saab o di concorrere a rilevarla, facendone una società a controllo statale o qualcosa del genere.

Dettagli anche interessanti su come funziona la procedura in Svezia.

D'altronde, negli ultimi 20 anni, per 19 volte Saab aveva chiuso l'esercizio di bilancio in perdita ed aveva dovuto fare affidamento sul sostegno della casa madre.

Saab Fans Brace for Worst as GM Threatens Disposal (Update1)

By Niklas Magnusson and Chad Thomas


Feb. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Saab Automobile fans are bracing for the day the Swedish carmaker stops running on enthusiasm alone.

“I would be devastated and sad to see Saab go,” said Ryan Emge, 30, who runs a Web site for Saab aficionados and bought his first Saab in 1995 after a Swedish mechanic in New Salem, Massachusetts, introduced him to the brand. “There are a lot of people here who love and want to keep their Saabs.”
The six-decade love affair between Saab and car drivers is being tested after General Motors Corp. said late yesterday it wants to dump the unit following two decades of unprofitable ownership. Sweden’s government today ruled out a takeover of the country’s second-largest carmaker and said no buyer is in sight, casting doubt over a brand that enjoys a global cult following.

At stake is the future of about 4,500 workers at Saab’s Trollhaettan factory in southern Sweden, as well as thousands of jobs at regional suppliers. A breakdown of Saab would hurt a network of exclusive Saab car dealers in the U.S. and the U.K., and end decades of automotive innovation that spawned features such as side-impact protection or turbo-charged engines.

Dwarfed by regional rival Volvo Cars and German competitors, Saab may find it is too small to survive on its own. The company sold only about 93,000 cars last year, less than 10 percent of what Mercedes-Benz or Bayerische Motoren Werke AG sold. In its Swedish home market, it ranked behind Volvo, Volkswagen AG and Toyota Motor Corp. in market share last year.

Tough Turnaround

Saab has struggled since GM bought half of the automaker in 1990 from Investor AB, the Wallenberg family’s publicly traded holding company. Saab has been on “life-support” for most of the past 20 years, GM Vice Chairman Bob Lutz said last month. The company has only made a profit in one of the last 20 years.
“I don’t see how you make it more profitable than it has been,” said Mike Tyndall, an analyst with Nomura Securities in London. “Unless there is something glaringly obvious that GM missed, which I doubt.”

Swedish Industry Minister Maud Olofsson said GM is to blame for Saab’s problems because its U.S. parent focused on the wrong products and failed to push innovation such as environmentally friendly cars. Prime Minister Fredrik Reinfeldt today called GM’s demands a “trap” set by U.S. manufacturers to pressure the government into aiding its country’s ailing manufacturers.

Swedish Reconstruction

General Motors said yesterday it wants Saab to become an independent business entity by the beginning of next year, with financial aid from the Swedish government. If GM and the state can’t agree, Saab may file for reorganization “as early as this month,” GM said.

Under a reorganization, a Swedish court appoints a “reconstructor” who stands above existing management and helps the company write off 75 percent of its debt. The court evaluates the progress of a reconstruction after three months and decides if the plan is to be extended to as much as one year or if the business should be liquidated to pay creditors from the proceeds.

Saab isn’t the only European brand reeling from GM’s financial woes. GM, which asked the U.S. for as much as $16.6 billion in new loans and said it needs to cut 47,000 more jobs worldwide, is also negotiating with governments in Germany and the U.K. about options for the Opel and Vauxhall brands.
Saab’s popularity peaked in the 1980s, when the 900 model drew buyers seeking a European car that stood for technical innovation, safety, luxury and idiosyncratic design. Saab became the car of choice for consumers who felt Volvo was too bland, and German carmakers such as BMW and Mercedes were overly brash. Today, Saab relies on two models, the 9-3 and the 9-5, which are popular in the station-wagon version.

Quirky Design

Saab’s niche existence has assured the company a following that resembles the enthusiasm for the Volkswagen Beetle or Porsche AG’s 911 sports car. Saab has fan clubs from Belarus to Australia. In the U.S, there are Saab clubs in more than 25 states, including California, Florida, Kansas, Louisiana and Texas, according to the Saab Club of North America.

Saab traces its origins to aircraft company Svenska Aeroplan AB that was founded in 1937 to secure production of Swedish warplanes. Saab peddled its heritage with advertisements claiming the cars are “Born from Jets.” Slogans such as “Saab, the Well-Built Swede” from the late Sixties evoked quality and safety features that made both Volvo and Saab famous.

Saab was the first carmaker in the world to introduce side- impact protection systems in 1972. Saab cars came with heated car seats, and the convertibles had glass rear windows where rival models had plastic. Saab’s styling, with its iconic silhouette and back spoilers, together with the turbo technique that produces more power, made the car recognizable and a hit with 80s Yuppies and drivers who demanded high-performance engineering.

Diluted Brand

“GM took a top quality brand and then diluted it,” said Stephen Pope, chief global strategist at Cantor Fitzgerald in London. “It’s not a volume car but it’s not as exclusive as the Germany luxury carmakers.”
While GM focused on its struggling North American operations, the auto industry changed and Saab didn’t adapt. Saab and Volvo, owned by Ford Motor Co., occupied a market position between the luxury and volume carmakers that became irrelevant as the volume carmakers improved the quality of their offerings.
GM tried to replicate the success Toyota Motor Corp. and Volkswagen AG had with their own luxury units that share parts and platforms with the main volume brands. Unlike Volkswagen and Toyota, GM didn’t invest enough to make the Saab strategy work.

Saab’s lack of scale may make survival harder. Volvo Cars, which has also been put up for sale by Ford, sold 375,000 vehicles last year. Saab said today it needs to sell at least 150,000 cars in order to have a business that works.

“GM lost the plot,” Philippe Houchois, an automotive analyst with UBS AG in London, said. “They were so tied up in their problems in North America, they didn’t really do a very thorough job in a lot of their overseas operations.”

 

[Researcher]

D'altronde, negli ultimi 20 anni, per 19 volte Saab aveva chiuso l'esercizio di bilancio in perdita ed aveva dovuto fare affidamento sul sostegno della casa madre.

Beh, questo la dice lunga sulla lungimiranza degli investimenti di GM.....

 

[Imark]

Lo stato dell'arte della discussione in Europa, secondo il wall street journal: GM da un lato tratta con alcuni governi (in specie, con quello tedesco e quello inglese, dopo che gli svedesi si sono tirati indietro), dall'altro cerca di cedere una quota di Opel o di trovare un partner per gestirla in joint venture.

Europe Cool to GM's Aid Push

By ANDREA THOMAS and OLA KINNANDER

European governments reacted coolly Wednesday to General Motors Corp.'s request for financial support for GM-owned car makers in their countries, despite growing concerns over job losses.

The governments of Germany and the U.K., home to GM's big Opel and Vauxhall brands, said they were seeking detailed talks with GM on the topic. Sweden gave a flat refusal to further underwrite GM's Saab unit

GM's bid underscores the global effects of recession on multinational manufacturers. European governments would like to preserve thousands of GM-related jobs in Europe but are wary of setting a precedent for other, locally owned industry groups to exploit. While Europeans have opened the door to bank nationalization to prevent financial collapse, they are steering clear of putting money into the manufacturing sector.

"I'm very disappointed in GM," Swedish Minister for Enterprise and Energy Maud Olofsson told a news conference in Stockholm Wednesday. "We're not prepared to risk the taxpayers' money," she said, adding that Saab has been unprofitable since GM took control in 2000.

Separately, GM's Zurich-based European division on Wednesday indicated that it is open to selling a stake or forming a strategic alliance with a partner for GM's units in Europe.

"If it makes sense for the sustainable success of GM Europe and Opel, management is also willing to negotiate partnerships and shareholdings by third parties," said the company and labor representatives in a joint statement. GM Europe wouldn't elaborate or indicate whether any such talks were under way or even being considered.

GM for now is trying to line up $6 billion in financial support from five countries by March 31, including Germany, the U.K., Sweden, Thailand and Canada. In a revamped restructuring plan submitted to the U.S. Treasury on Tuesday, GM said it needs help from abroad in addition to $16.6 billion in U.S. government assistance coming on top of the $13.4 billion in loans the company has received since December.

GM is targeting $1.2 billion in savings from its European operations. The company said 26,000 of its 47,000 planned job cuts would come from outside the U.S. It also warned of the possible closure or spinoff of European plants in "high-cost locations."

Labor representatives at Opel have been appealing to German federal and state governments to consider nationalizing Opel to preserve its 26,000 jobs. Some also have suggested creating one car-making group out of all of GM's current units.

German Finance Minister Peer Steinbrück told reporters Wednesday that Berlin now has to enter talks with GM about the fate of Opel, which also provides work for outside suppliers.

Mr. Steinbrück, who said he is a "skeptic" when it comes to nationalization, called on GM to provide a clear concept for future operations, saying the company has a duty to furnish details. He declined to say whether liquidity guarantees would be an option for the government.

The U.K. government said in a statement Wednesday it wants to "discuss the implications of the plan" with GM. GM employs about 5,000 people in the U.K., most of them at its Vauxhall unit. GM's U.K. unit estimates suppliers and others employ five people for every staff job at the firm.

A Swedish trade union estimates that there are about 15,000 Saab and Saab-related jobs at stake in Sweden: 4,000 Saab employees and about 11,000 subcontractors and suppliers to the company.

—Laurence Norman, Joel Sherwood and Christoph Rauwald contributed to this article

 

[Imark]

Beh, questo la dice lunga sulla lungimiranza degli investimenti di GM.....

Non l'hanno mai valorizzata Saab ... non capisco perché se la fossero comprata, a suo tempo, per poi non farne niente...

 

[Researcher]

Non l'hanno mai valorizzata Saab ... non capisco perché se la fossero comprata, a suo tempo, per poi non farne niente...

Eh, hanno comperato un sacco di cose, che hanno trasformato in m......

 

[lorenzo63]

Ed a proposito dei bondholders GM

A group representing General Motors Corp. bondholders fears that the auto maker's latest restructuring plan fails to address all the challenges facing the company and doesn't cut costs enough in light of the deteriorating economy, a person familiar with the bond negotiations said Wednesday.

The group is at the center of negotiations to reduce GM's $27 billion in unsecured debt through a debt-for-equity swap, a key piece of the auto maker's plan to escape bankruptcy. GM, which has received $13.4 billion in federal loans so far, on Tuesday submitted a revised survival plan and asked for an additional $16.6 billion, citing a deepening global sales slump. If GM fails to cut a deal with bondholders and get the debt exchange started by March 31, the earlier funding would be at risk under the loan terms.

The recovery plan GM presented to the federal government Tuesday evening calls for cutting 47,000 jobs around the world, closing five additional plants in North America and eliminating four of the auto maker's eight brands. "The question is, did they go far enough, or are they just layering debt onto debt?" the person said. "They need the company to drive hard so it is competitive soon, not in 2012."

Word of the discontent among bondholders surfaced as President Barack Obama's auto task force was preparing to meet Friday to begin weighing the recovery plans put forward by GM and Chrysler LLC, amid concerns that the bailout costs could swell if the economy continues to sour.

Chrysler, which has received $4 billion in loans, asked for an additional $5 billion in the plan it submitted Tuesday. The session, to be led by Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner and White House economic adviser Lawrence Summers, will mark the start of a grueling month of negotiations between the administration and the car makers over how to reconfigure a large chunk of the U.S. auto industry.

The GM plan -- by far the largest of the two -- relies on assumptions that, if unmet, could make the proposed federal assistance far more costly than the $16.6 billion the company says it needs. GM is already banking, for instance, on $7.7 billion in loans from the Energy Department to develop more fuel-efficient technology, but those loans remain up in the air.

Another uncertainty: the stability of GM's myriad suppliers, including Delphi Corp., the parts division spun off by GM a decade ago that's now in Chapter 11 bankruptcy protection. GM's plan proposes that the government create, by next month, a $4.5 billion credit-insurance program to guarantee payments to the country's hard-hit parts makers. It also suggests that the government may have to provide significant aid to Delphi so it can emerge from Chapter 11.

In addition, GM said in the plan that its troubled financing arm, GMAC Financial Services, may need more federal assistance unless creditors begin to look more favorably on the unit. The Treasury Department put $5 billion into GMAC in December.

Sen. Bob Corker of Tennessee, a lead Republican during December's negotiations over aid to the car industry, said the two auto makers' plans were at best "a work in progress" that raised a number of troubling questions.

GM is working on a deal with its bondholders to restructure $27 billion in company debt. But even under the most optimistic scenario, government loans would more than replace GM's public debt. "If you pile on U.S. taxpayer debt, aren't you just trading debt for debt?" asked Sen. Corker in an interview. "Aren't you just getting your capital structure right back in the same place?"

Besides criticism from Washington and bondholders, the auto makers face tense negotiations with the United Auto Workers over labor-cost reductions.

On Tuesday, representatives of the bondholder committee said GM needs "shared sacrifice from all stakeholders" and that the panel requires more information on the terms being worked out between GM and the UAW. GM is in talks with the union to restructure $20 billion in obligations to retired hourly workers.

The panel submitted a framework for GM's attempt to restructure debt earlier this week; details of that plan haven't emerged.