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Another criticism of the exchange was that it would be plagued by "free riders"—investors who wouldn't participate in the exchange because they'd be better off being paid in full on the original bonds. The deal is structured to be voluntary and many experts thought when it was announced in July that barely half of bondholders would accept it.
Now, things have changed: Participation, if the exchange goes ahead, is likely to be far higher, possibly more than the 90% minimum the Greek government is targeting. The main reason is that, as Greece has bickered with its official creditors, fears of a default have grown, bond prices have collapsed further and the exchange looks like a far better deal than it once did.
"When the deal was announced in July, the acceptance rate would have been 55% to 60%. Now, the probability of a near-term default has gone up dramatically and the price of the bonds has collapsed. … The acceptance rate will now be much higher, possibly even into the nineties," Mr. Lerrick says.
Greek government bonds maturing before 2021 are now trading at just under 40 cents on the euro. If investors exchange their bonds for par bonds, one of four available options, they receive top-rated collateral guaranteeing full repayment after 30 years. The value of that guarantee in today's money is just over 30 cents. That means the component that accounts for Greek risk—that would repay almost 70% of face value at maturity if it's repaid—can be purchased for eight cents on the euro.
One reason Greek risk is so cheap is that investors are worried that Greece won't secure the next €8 billion ($10.86 billion) of aid, the country will slide into a full-scale default and the exchange won't go ahead.
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True, many investors outside Europe, including hedge funds, won't feel bound to declare their full holdings and will hold on to "old" bonds. But the "old bonds" will probably be substantially less marketable than before. For example, though the Greek government has given no indication of its plans, it is likely to delist the old bonds from stock exchanges.
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; Comunque anche noi negl' anni 70 si passava le giornate in ditta e si lavorava 7/7 
; Poi ci sono stati i geni della globalizzazione e adesso il 7/7 lo fanno i cinesi e noi ci facciamo le seghe.
) che sarebbe disposto a farsi il mazzo come un negoziante di Bangkok ?
così non si ha il cruccio della quotazione 
