Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 2
- Creatore Discussione tommy271
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
tommy271
Forumer storico
In teoria, in caso di default i prezzi si appiattiscono (come ora lo sono, eccetto sulle scadenze a brevissimo).
Cosa succederà?
Non sono un indovino ... ma in chiave positiva verranno pagati a 100, in chiave negativa assumeranno lo stesso prezzo dei titoli trentennali.
carib
rerum cognoscere causas
JP Morgan (27 genn 2012)
Both the Troika and the
Portuguese authorities say that they are planning a return of
the sovereign to the markets next year. We have serious
doubts about that happening but, as long as Portugal continues
to put in a good faith effort, there should be no problems
with the package being extended. This package is unlikely
to include PSI as part of the debt reduction plan.
Both the Troika and the
Portuguese authorities say that they are planning a return of
the sovereign to the markets next year. We have serious
doubts about that happening but, as long as Portugal continues
to put in a good faith effort, there should be no problems
with the package being extended. This package is unlikely
to include PSI as part of the debt reduction plan.
russiabond
Il mito, la leggenda.
...però magari questa volta è davvero volontario ...
vediamo l'andazzo ...
adesso che le perpetue sono ormai partite ...vedo come speculazione o il forex leva pesante sul € - CHF ...da 1- 2 milioni in su ...se lo fanno ripartire verso 1,25 ...li fai veloci ...certo che se mollano la presa viene giù a piombo verso 1,10
o il Porto se arriva giù per bene ...area 30-33...1 miloncino nominale frutto dello switch ...
carib
rerum cognoscere causas
...The political and social consensus behind the
government’s program, and the fact that Coelho’s administration
is perceived to be putting in a good faith effort by
the Troika, suggests that there are reasons to be sanguine
on both these points for now. Contagion created by the
Greek debt restructuring also suggests that neither Portugal
nor European authorities are likely to view PSI as an attractive
way forward in the near term.
government’s program, and the fact that Coelho’s administration
is perceived to be putting in a good faith effort by
the Troika, suggests that there are reasons to be sanguine
on both these points for now. Contagion created by the
Greek debt restructuring also suggests that neither Portugal
nor European authorities are likely to view PSI as an attractive
way forward in the near term.
frmaoro
il Fankazzista
European finance ministers and politicians have come to the conclusion that a deal, even one involving a credit event, is better than no deal at all. Thus it is increasingly likely the Greek Debt Wrangle will trigger credit default swaps.
As late as May 7, 2011 former ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet insisted there would be "no Greek debt restructuring". I wrote about it in Trichet Reiterates Restructuring "Not on the Agenda", Market Reiterates "Trichet is a Pompous Fool". la truffa mentiva sapendo di mentire
Since then there have been two restructurings, and we are now headed for an involuntary restructuring that will trigger credit default swaps.
I suspect an effort will be made to placate the ECB somewhat so that the ECB does not take a loss on the 40 billion euros of Greek debt it stupidly bought, but otherwise, the ECB is about to have this crammed down their throats.
Portugal waits on deck.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.c
Opposition to payouts on Greek credit-default swaps from European Union policy makers is softening as disputes over a voluntary debt exchange threaten to push the nation into default.
Any agreement between the Greek government and the Washington-based Institute of International Finance on debt writedowns will only bind 50 percent of investors in the 206 billion euros ($270 billion) of notes being negotiated, Barclays Capital estimates. Hedge funds may resist a deal, seeking to get paid in full or compensated from insurance contracts
“Politicians seem less concerned than before about CDS triggers,” said Michael Hampden-Turner, a credit strategist at Citigroup Inc. in London. “Having a payout on Greek CDS is probably better than the alternative: a loss in market faith of the product’s ability to provide a hedge against sovereign risk.”
Officials, including former European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, have insisted that a swaps trigger was unacceptable because traders would be encouraged to bet against indebted nations and worsen the crisis.
Greece said it may impose losses on investors who fail to support the debt restructuring by adding a so-called collective action clause, or CAC, into its bond documentation. That would force holdouts to accept the same terms as the majority.
Use of CACs would trigger a restructuring credit event and a payout of default swaps, according to rules from the International Swaps & Derivatives Association.
“A CAC is looking increasingly like the best option,” Citigroup’s Hampden-Turner said. “That route seems to tick a lot of boxes: they don’t have a bond default, the official sector gets treated differently than the private sector, and everybody has to participate in the exchange without anybody getting paid in full.”
ECB Opposition
While the ECB oppose any involuntary restructuring of Greek debt, policy makers such as Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager say they aren’t against a credit event.
The softer stance signals Greece is unlikely to get sufficient participation in a voluntary bond swap to make its debt burden sustainable.
The ECB is now alone in its opposition to a credit event. Then again, the ECB alone was against haircuts, soft defaults etc. Any agreement between the Greek government and the Washington-based Institute of International Finance on debt writedowns will only bind 50 percent of investors in the 206 billion euros ($270 billion) of notes being negotiated, Barclays Capital estimates. Hedge funds may resist a deal, seeking to get paid in full or compensated from insurance contracts
“Politicians seem less concerned than before about CDS triggers,” said Michael Hampden-Turner, a credit strategist at Citigroup Inc. in London. “Having a payout on Greek CDS is probably better than the alternative: a loss in market faith of the product’s ability to provide a hedge against sovereign risk.”
Officials, including former European Central Bank President Jean-Claude Trichet, have insisted that a swaps trigger was unacceptable because traders would be encouraged to bet against indebted nations and worsen the crisis.
Greece said it may impose losses on investors who fail to support the debt restructuring by adding a so-called collective action clause, or CAC, into its bond documentation. That would force holdouts to accept the same terms as the majority.
Use of CACs would trigger a restructuring credit event and a payout of default swaps, according to rules from the International Swaps & Derivatives Association.
“A CAC is looking increasingly like the best option,” Citigroup’s Hampden-Turner said. “That route seems to tick a lot of boxes: they don’t have a bond default, the official sector gets treated differently than the private sector, and everybody has to participate in the exchange without anybody getting paid in full.”
ECB Opposition
While the ECB oppose any involuntary restructuring of Greek debt, policy makers such as Dutch Finance Minister Jan Kees de Jager say they aren’t against a credit event.
The softer stance signals Greece is unlikely to get sufficient participation in a voluntary bond swap to make its debt burden sustainable.
As late as May 7, 2011 former ECB president Jean-Claude Trichet insisted there would be "no Greek debt restructuring". I wrote about it in Trichet Reiterates Restructuring "Not on the Agenda", Market Reiterates "Trichet is a Pompous Fool". la truffa mentiva sapendo di mentire
Since then there have been two restructurings, and we are now headed for an involuntary restructuring that will trigger credit default swaps.
I suspect an effort will be made to placate the ECB somewhat so that the ECB does not take a loss on the 40 billion euros of Greek debt it stupidly bought, but otherwise, the ECB is about to have this crammed down their throats.
Portugal waits on deck.
Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.c
Ultima modifica:
carib
rerum cognoscere causas
Come vedi, Citi e JPM discordano in materia.
Il mio parere é il seguente:
1) non ritengo possibile per il Portogallo tornare sul mercato (titoli a lunga durata) a tassi sostenibili l'anno prossimo;
2) ritengo inevitabile un "second package" entro quest'anno... che copre fino al 2015, sempre che il governo prosegua sul cammino sinora seguito, e sul serio.
3) ritengo possibile uno scambio volontario in titoli di durata estesa a tassi invariati o leggermente ridotti, con giurisdizione Londra o Francoforte, e riduzione dell'VPN dell'ordine del 30%.
4) ritengo che una ristrutturazione violenta, con haircut superiore al 50% non risolverebbe i problemi di fondo dell'economia portoghese, a meno di ipotizzare una uscita dall'€.
Poi, ovviamente, posso sbagliarmi.
carib
rerum cognoscere causas
De acordo com uma sondagem da Reuters junto de 50 economistas realizada esta semana, a hipótese de Portugal precisar de um novo pacote de assistência financeira é de 70%.
E é no meio deste contexto que Portugal já anunciou que regressa aos mercados na próxima quarta-feira, para tentar financiar-se num montante até 1,5 mil milhões de euros em Bilhetes do Tesouro.
E é no meio deste contexto que Portugal já anunciou que regressa aos mercados na próxima quarta-feira, para tentar financiar-se num montante até 1,5 mil milhões de euros em Bilhetes do Tesouro.
cris71
Forumer storico
...ma se l'hanno riportato "artificiosamente" sopra 1,20...però magari questa volta è davvero volontario ...
vediamo l'andazzo ...
adesso che le perpetue sono ormai partite ...vedo come speculazione o il forex leva pesante sul € - CHF ...da 1- 2 milioni in su ...se lo fanno ripartire verso 1,25 ...li fai veloci ...certo che se mollano la presa viene giù a piombo verso 1,10
o il Porto se arriva giù per bene ...area 30-33...1 miloncino nominale frutto dello switch ...
altrimenti noi non si esportava più nulla- Stato
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