BNP's Lemierre: Greek GDP Warrants Could Be Boon To Bondholders
--BNP's Lemierre says Greek GDP warrants could be boon to bondholders --'Never throw away' Greek GDP warrants, says lead negotiator in Greek debt swap
--BNP's Lemierre says Greek GDP payments would be more moderate than Argentina's
By Ian Talley
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES
WASHINGTON (Dow Jones)--An unusual security included in the Greek debt swap could prove a boon to bondholders, but likely won't be the windfall that investors saw under the Argentinian debt restructuring, one of the principal negotiators said Saturday.
The terms of the 200-billion-euro ($269 billion) Greek debt swap include a so-called gross domestic product warrant that returns cash if growth is better than forecast by the International Monetary Fund.
Under the 2005 Argentina restructuring, many bondholders didn't think the GDP warrant sweetener would pay out, dismissing it as essentially worthless. As growth has rebounded far faster than forecast, investors have received billions of dollars they never expected.
"Hold on to that paper, put it in a box, and never throw it away," said Jean Lemierre, one of the two lead negotiators for private bondholders of Greek government bonds and a senior adviser to BNP Paribas's chairman, in an interview.
The Argentine experience has helped inform the Greek swap terms. The Argentine warrant was "nothing, or a bonanza," whereas the Greek GDP-based security has a more-graduated return, Lemierre said. Under the Greek swap, the GDP securities will pay out up to 1% of the amount of the new bonds issued, starting in 2015, if growth exceeds IMF targets.
According to a recent IMF staff report on the Greek financing program, the fund projects Greek growth at 2.9% in 2015, falling to 2.8% in the following two years.
Lemierre also said that the "sweetners" in the deal designed to attract voluntary participation, such as the warrant and EUR30 billion in bonds exchangeable as cash would likely apply to the bulk of private bondholders because of the collective-action clauses Athens is prepared to enforce. The clauses give Greece the ability to apply the terms of the swap deal to all privately held bonds if there is at least 66% voluntary participation.
Lemierre compared it to a condo association: if two-thirds of the association agree to a new paint job, then regardless of any minority objections, the entire condo building is painted.
The terms may not apply to the Greek government bonds issued under English law, Lemierre said, which account for roughly EUR20 billion, or 10% of the total of privately held debt.
The small share of that debt is also why Lemierre has said he is not particularly concerned about transfers of Greek bonds to hedge funds that have historically tried to hold out for better terms, forcing the government into litigation. He said hedge funds are unlikely to risk too much exposure to such a venture, saying that they may buy lots of EUR20 million to EUR50 million for the strategy.
-By Ian Talley, Dow Jones Newswires, 202-862-9285;
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