tommy271
Forumer storico
Già questa mi pare una buona idea.
Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 2 (1 Viewer)
- Creatore Discussione tommy271
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Già questa mi pare una buona idea.
gipa69
collegio dei patafisici
An initial roundup of the PSI commentary out this Friday morning.
First off Standard Chartered’s Sarah Hewin, who thinks Isda might call a credit event:
First off Standard Chartered’s Sarah Hewin, who thinks Isda might call a credit event:
Participation in Greece’s debt restructuring (the Private Sector Involvement, or PSI), officially reported at 85.8%, is high enough for the debt swap to go ahead but falls short of the 90% threshold set by the government to proceed with a ‘voluntary’ swap. Greece has announced that it will initiate Collective Action Clauses (CACs) in order to ensure 100% participation among debt holders governed by Greek law (covering some EUR 177bn of EUR 206bn of Greek debt held in private hands).
ISDA, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, meets at 13:00 GMT to decide whether this constitutes a credit event that would trigger CDS payouts.
In our view, this looks highly likely. Some 69% of non-Greek law bond holders accepted the debt swap terms: this investor group and those holding state-guaranteed bonds issued by public companies will have until 23 March to accept the swap offer. Overall, participation in the debt swap amounts to 95.7%, once the CACs are initiated.
The debt swap reduces privately held debt by over EUR 100bn, pushes debt repayments out to 2023-2042, and cuts interest servicing costs (coupons on the newly swapped debt will be 2% up to 2016). Rating agency downgrades to selective default will be reassessed once the debt swap is finalised. The PSI will allow partial payment from the second EU bailout, but Greece will need to press ahead with overdue reforms in order to allow the release of further tranches.
Funds for debt servicing are due to be ring-fenced – with three months’ worth set aside and prioritised over other budget expenditure. So in the near term, fears of a ‘hard default’ should recede, assuming parliament votes in this legislation. But Greece’s political situation remains unstable, with elections (probably end-April) likely to return a coalition government that will have to press ahead with ongoing austerity in the face of a deep recession and vocal opposition from increasingly powerful fringe parties.
The rates strategy team at Lloyds believes we now have to focus on the CACs:ISDA, the International Swaps and Derivatives Association, meets at 13:00 GMT to decide whether this constitutes a credit event that would trigger CDS payouts.
In our view, this looks highly likely. Some 69% of non-Greek law bond holders accepted the debt swap terms: this investor group and those holding state-guaranteed bonds issued by public companies will have until 23 March to accept the swap offer. Overall, participation in the debt swap amounts to 95.7%, once the CACs are initiated.
The debt swap reduces privately held debt by over EUR 100bn, pushes debt repayments out to 2023-2042, and cuts interest servicing costs (coupons on the newly swapped debt will be 2% up to 2016). Rating agency downgrades to selective default will be reassessed once the debt swap is finalised. The PSI will allow partial payment from the second EU bailout, but Greece will need to press ahead with overdue reforms in order to allow the release of further tranches.
Funds for debt servicing are due to be ring-fenced – with three months’ worth set aside and prioritised over other budget expenditure. So in the near term, fears of a ‘hard default’ should recede, assuming parliament votes in this legislation. But Greece’s political situation remains unstable, with elections (probably end-April) likely to return a coalition government that will have to press ahead with ongoing austerity in the face of a deep recession and vocal opposition from increasingly powerful fringe parties.
Following the announcement from the Greek government, the final voluntary participation stands at 83.5% for the €206bn of Greek debt which amounts to c. €172bn. Although the result is relatively higher than market expectations, it still falls short of the 90% set by Greece and hence the focus is now on the activation of CACs. The Greek finmin is scheduled to speak at 11am GMT and officially present the PSI results while the final decision on the CACs will be taken (or confirmed) during a tele-Eurogroup expected at 1pm GMT. Our central scenario remains for Greece to activate the CACs and exchange c. €197 of the GGBs i.e. 95.7%.
ISDA, which has announced a meeting for 1pm GMT today, is expected to declare a credit event and trigger the payment of the CDS. The initial market reaction is for a modest risk-off (10yr Tsy at 2.015%, EURUSD lower) as the outcome of the PSI was mostly discounted by the market. However, the expected confirmation of CACs (and hence CDS being triggered) should support the market. Then the main question that will arise will be if based on today’s result other countries (i.e. Portugal) ask for a PSI process.
Socgen’s Lauren Rosborough speculates about a ‘player x’ in the CDS market:ISDA, which has announced a meeting for 1pm GMT today, is expected to declare a credit event and trigger the payment of the CDS. The initial market reaction is for a modest risk-off (10yr Tsy at 2.015%, EURUSD lower) as the outcome of the PSI was mostly discounted by the market. However, the expected confirmation of CACs (and hence CDS being triggered) should support the market. Then the main question that will arise will be if based on today’s result other countries (i.e. Portugal) ask for a PSI process.
The voluntary take-up of the Greek bond swap was 85.8%, at the upper end of expectations but still low enough to rewire CACs to be activated in order to life final take-up to 95.7%. ISDA meets at 13:00 GMT to decide whether this is a ‘credit event’; which triggers CDS contracts. I didn’t talk to anyone yesterday who expected voluntary take-up of the bond swap in excess of 90%. S
o this should not be a huge ‘surprise’ and while nothing is certain in this crisis, it would seem strange for the CDS contracts not to be triggered.
The focus then, will move on to who the winners and losers are from the CDS and of course, whether ‘player X’ has written enough CDS protection to take a major loss. The sooner the uncertainty surrounding that issue is reduced, the better. Most of the early commentary expects risk appetite to be hit this morning, with the euro down and peripheral spreads wider.
I’ll take that as a signal the market only weakens slightly this morning, with pre-ISDA uncertainty making people edgy. US payroll data will then have to compete with ISDA as a market driver. The market looks for +210k, SG for 275k. The market looks for a steady unemployment rate at 8.3% but that could fall again. The US also sees trade data (deficit back over $50bn).
And Rabobank takes the view that a credit event wouldn’t necessarily be destabilising at all:o this should not be a huge ‘surprise’ and while nothing is certain in this crisis, it would seem strange for the CDS contracts not to be triggered.
The focus then, will move on to who the winners and losers are from the CDS and of course, whether ‘player X’ has written enough CDS protection to take a major loss. The sooner the uncertainty surrounding that issue is reduced, the better. Most of the early commentary expects risk appetite to be hit this morning, with the euro down and peripheral spreads wider.
I’ll take that as a signal the market only weakens slightly this morning, with pre-ISDA uncertainty making people edgy. US payroll data will then have to compete with ISDA as a market driver. The market looks for +210k, SG for 275k. The market looks for a steady unemployment rate at 8.3% but that could fall again. The US also sees trade data (deficit back over $50bn).
Holders of EUR172bn of the EUR206bn worth of eligible bonds participated, or 83.5% of total. This breaks down into EUR152bn of the EUR177bn of bonds governed by Greek law (85.8%) and EUR20bn of the EUR29bn of bonds covered by English/foreign law. The statement notes that the government “intends to accept the consents received and amend the terms of all of its Greek law governed bonds, including those not tendered for exchange”. In other words, Greece will employ its collective action clauses (CACs) to force holdouts on Greek law governed bonds to participate. The use of these CACs will then see the involuntary participation of the remaining EUR25bn of such bonds, taking the total up to EUR197bn or 95.7%. Meanwhile, the invitation for the tender of bonds not covered by Greek law has been extended to 9pm on Mar 23.
To encourage the remaining hold outs on these bonds to take part, the statement ends by noting that more punitive terms will prevail post this extended. After Mar 23 “there will be no further opportunity for creditors holding those bonds to benefit from the package of EFSF notes, co-financing and GDP-linked securities [...]“. The Eurogroup will hold a press conference at 13:00GMT while ISDA will convene at the very same time to discuss whether a credit event has now occurred.
There must surely be a good chance they now declare that such an even has occurred (although given the argument was already very compelling on this front when they last met such an outcome is not certain). The use of CACs has the potential to weigh on market sentiment although this is unlikely to have come as a surprise and, hence, may largely be in the price.
A triggering of a credit event allowing for CDS payouts, meanwhile, need not be destabilising in our view (we would consider a lack of CDS payouts to inject a greater degree of uncertainty into the market as this would confirm the pointlessness of the instrument as a default hedge). In so much as the threat of a messy Greek default has been avoided, and the associated contagion risk regarding the broader periphery contained, the large take up of the swap deal could prove to be sentiment positive.
As we note in this week’s Rabo Rate Directions, however, there are numerous “flashpoints” looming as regards a resurgence of “risk off”; not least of which is the possibly rapid realisation Greece’s debt profile is still untenable and that this could well prove to be the first rather than the last restructuring.
We’ll bring you more commentary as and when we get it.To encourage the remaining hold outs on these bonds to take part, the statement ends by noting that more punitive terms will prevail post this extended. After Mar 23 “there will be no further opportunity for creditors holding those bonds to benefit from the package of EFSF notes, co-financing and GDP-linked securities [...]“. The Eurogroup will hold a press conference at 13:00GMT while ISDA will convene at the very same time to discuss whether a credit event has now occurred.
There must surely be a good chance they now declare that such an even has occurred (although given the argument was already very compelling on this front when they last met such an outcome is not certain). The use of CACs has the potential to weigh on market sentiment although this is unlikely to have come as a surprise and, hence, may largely be in the price.
A triggering of a credit event allowing for CDS payouts, meanwhile, need not be destabilising in our view (we would consider a lack of CDS payouts to inject a greater degree of uncertainty into the market as this would confirm the pointlessness of the instrument as a default hedge). In so much as the threat of a messy Greek default has been avoided, and the associated contagion risk regarding the broader periphery contained, the large take up of the swap deal could prove to be sentiment positive.
As we note in this week’s Rabo Rate Directions, however, there are numerous “flashpoints” looming as regards a resurgence of “risk off”; not least of which is the possibly rapid realisation Greece’s debt profile is still untenable and that this could well prove to be the first rather than the last restructuring.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Dovresti legarti alla porta di ingresso della Consob
... con catene, lucchetto e gettar via la chiave .Prima però devi avvisare i giornali e dopo un pò i vigili del fuoco ... forse qualcuno parlerà di te ...
.
tommy271
Forumer storico
Esatto, purtroppo devono applicare le CAC altrimenti gli extra-GGB diventano tutti holdout...
robinson
Forumer storico
Dovresti legarti alla porta di ingresso della Consob
Prima però devi avvisare i giornali e dopo un pò i vigili del fuoco ... forse qualcuno parlerà di te ...
già, nella banana republic meglio parlare delle tette rifatte di xy
che di 10-20-30.000 retailers a cui verranno tolti i risparmi sudati
tommy271
Forumer storico
Purtroppo è così.
cdr
Forumer attivo
IWBank non ha mandato alcuna proposta di swap per la IT, al contrario delle GR, dunqune anche volendo (ma non voglio
) non potrei aderire.ciao,
cdr
tommy271
Forumer storico
Sul tavolo ci sono clausole di azione collettiva
Nell'evoluzione dell'Eurogruppo teleconferenza sui risultati di "tagliare"
Pubblicato: Venerdì, 9 Marzo 2012
Il risultato del PSI e la potenziale attivazione di clausole di azione collettiva (CAC), che renderà obbligatoria "haircut" per tutti i titoli ammissibili, considerando i ministri delle Finanze della zona euro a loro chiamata in conferenza è in corso.
Inoltre, la commissione ISDA il potere di determinare se un evento creditizio si incontreranno sul tema nel tardo pomeriggio.
La parte greca, come confermato da Ef.Venizelos mezzogiorno proporrà l'attivazione delle clausole.
Sul tavolo si troveranno qualora l'intervento sia sufficiente secondo i termini fissati dai governi della zona euro.
Per quanto riguarda il progresso di stimolo, funzionario del governo ha detto a Reuters che la prima tranche di prestiti dal secondo piano di salvataggio della Grecia sarà rilasciato dopo la riunione dell'Eurogruppo.
"Nei prossimi giorni. Firmerà il nuovo accordo con l'Eurogruppo, verranno assegnati i primi quantità di nuovi prestiti", ha detto il funzionario.
(Ta Nea)
Nell'evoluzione dell'Eurogruppo teleconferenza sui risultati di "tagliare"
Pubblicato: Venerdì, 9 Marzo 2012
Il risultato del PSI e la potenziale attivazione di clausole di azione collettiva (CAC), che renderà obbligatoria "haircut" per tutti i titoli ammissibili, considerando i ministri delle Finanze della zona euro a loro chiamata in conferenza è in corso.
Inoltre, la commissione ISDA il potere di determinare se un evento creditizio si incontreranno sul tema nel tardo pomeriggio.
La parte greca, come confermato da Ef.Venizelos mezzogiorno proporrà l'attivazione delle clausole.
Sul tavolo si troveranno qualora l'intervento sia sufficiente secondo i termini fissati dai governi della zona euro.
Per quanto riguarda il progresso di stimolo, funzionario del governo ha detto a Reuters che la prima tranche di prestiti dal secondo piano di salvataggio della Grecia sarà rilasciato dopo la riunione dell'Eurogruppo.
"Nei prossimi giorni. Firmerà il nuovo accordo con l'Eurogruppo, verranno assegnati i primi quantità di nuovi prestiti", ha detto il funzionario.
(Ta Nea)
papandreu
Nuovo forumer
molto probabile visto e previsto
ma in questo caso esigo che i vecchi bond greci non portati in swap e non ancora CACCATI siano negoziabili sui mercati da lunedì
ci potrebbe essere ancora tempo per acquisti a 5....
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