Nobody's
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grazie, ma l'addetto del forum a contare i voti dei vari parlamenti non e Topgun?
Non lo vedo in giro pultroppo
Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 2
- Creatore Discussione tommy271
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
Non lo vedo in giro pultroppo
Nobody's
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METHOS
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tommy271
Forumer storico
Germania, voto su Efsf test fondamentale per maggioranza Merkel
giovedì 29 settembre 2011 10:11
BERLINO (Reuters) - Il cancelliere tedesco Angela Merkel affronta questa mattina una delle sfide più importanti per la propria sopravvivenza politica in quanto alcuni membri della coalizione, di fatto contrari agli aiuti alla Grecia, potrebbero umiliarla nel voto parlamentare sul potenziamento delle facoltà del fondo salva-Stati.
L'appoggio dell'opposizione di centro-sinistra assicurerà comunque il passaggio del disegno di legge sui nuovi poteri da conferire allo European Financial Stability Facility che alcuni paesi come la Finlandia hanno già ratificato ma altri, come la Slovacchia, stanno ancora dibattendo.
Si tratterebbe però di un danno politico rilevante per il cancelliere se le misure passassero soltanto grazie all'appoggio dell'opposizione a causa dei dissidi interni alla maggioranza.
I cristiano-democratici e gli alleati stanno facendo pressioni sui dissidenti affinché tornino sui loro passi prima del voto, previsto per le 11 di questa mattina e il cui risultato dovrebbe cominciare a delinearsi dopo circa mezz'ora.
"Stiamo lavorando per convincere i parlamentari", ha detto il numero due del Cdu Hermann Groethe a Reuters.
Groethe ha detto che il governo non si metterà nella posizione umiliante di dover dipendere dai social-democratici e dai verdi.
Merkel ha cercato di rassicurare la coalizione dai timori che il denaro dei contribuienti tedeschi venisse sprecato negli aiuti alla Grecia anche se naturalmente, come mostra l'andamento dei mercati finanziari, non si può escludere l'ipotesi di default.
Il cancelliere è spesso accusato, sia in Europa sia in Germania, di tergiversare sulla crisi della zona euro e se non dovesse ottenere l'appoggio sull'Efsf, questo complicherebbe le sue speranze di portare la coalizione Csu-Fdp alle elezioni del 2013.
Oggi, intanto, gli ispettori della 'troika' Ue/Bce/tornano ad Atene per dare il loro giudizio sulle misure di austerity del governo Papandreou.
giovedì 29 settembre 2011 10:11
BERLINO (Reuters) - Il cancelliere tedesco Angela Merkel affronta questa mattina una delle sfide più importanti per la propria sopravvivenza politica in quanto alcuni membri della coalizione, di fatto contrari agli aiuti alla Grecia, potrebbero umiliarla nel voto parlamentare sul potenziamento delle facoltà del fondo salva-Stati.
L'appoggio dell'opposizione di centro-sinistra assicurerà comunque il passaggio del disegno di legge sui nuovi poteri da conferire allo European Financial Stability Facility che alcuni paesi come la Finlandia hanno già ratificato ma altri, come la Slovacchia, stanno ancora dibattendo.
Si tratterebbe però di un danno politico rilevante per il cancelliere se le misure passassero soltanto grazie all'appoggio dell'opposizione a causa dei dissidi interni alla maggioranza.
I cristiano-democratici e gli alleati stanno facendo pressioni sui dissidenti affinché tornino sui loro passi prima del voto, previsto per le 11 di questa mattina e il cui risultato dovrebbe cominciare a delinearsi dopo circa mezz'ora.
"Stiamo lavorando per convincere i parlamentari", ha detto il numero due del Cdu Hermann Groethe a Reuters.
Groethe ha detto che il governo non si metterà nella posizione umiliante di dover dipendere dai social-democratici e dai verdi.
Merkel ha cercato di rassicurare la coalizione dai timori che il denaro dei contribuienti tedeschi venisse sprecato negli aiuti alla Grecia anche se naturalmente, come mostra l'andamento dei mercati finanziari, non si può escludere l'ipotesi di default.
Il cancelliere è spesso accusato, sia in Europa sia in Germania, di tergiversare sulla crisi della zona euro e se non dovesse ottenere l'appoggio sull'Efsf, questo complicherebbe le sue speranze di portare la coalizione Csu-Fdp alle elezioni del 2013.
Oggi, intanto, gli ispettori della 'troika' Ue/Bce/tornano ad Atene per dare il loro giudizio sulle misure di austerity del governo Papandreou.
Greece’s debt difficulty is Ireland’s opportunity — but we must plan now
Ivan Yates
Thursday, September 29, 2011
THE countdown has begun. It is a matter of when, not if, the Greek government and creditors will have to reconcile a 50% default on their sovereign debt.
With total loans of €353 billion, their national output of €200bn cannot sustain repayments. More liquidity won’t resolve underlying insolvency. Even if an interim €8bn is sanctioned in coming days, it only postpones the inevitable. IMF, World Bank, G20, US Treasury, markets and now European leaders have begun to drop denial and start planning for fallout on the euro and global economy. Ireland should rethink it's own strategy.
The Green Jersey Brigade still maintain a delusionary stance that this is unthinkable. Official Consensus Comrades, who faithfully promised us "soft landings" and "no bailout", assure us that in the worst eventuality of contagion, we are unaffected. Their constant communication strategy is to highlight we are the best boy in the bailout class and best German in the group of PIIGS. They trumpeted most recent quarterly CSO growth statistics as confirmation of economic progress, despite previous accuracy warnings of subsequent adjustment in annualised returns and poor July industrial figures.
They promise audiences our appetite for austerity remains unsated and eagerly advocate frontloading more pain. Above all, their central tenet is that our debt is "manageable ". National debt officially stands at €93bn. Comptroller and Auditor General estimates it to be €148bn by the end of last year. Market analysts assess the total at €173bn. GDP is stuck on €164bn. Each concession of lower interest costs and extended repayment periods are trumpeted as a game changer of debt sustainability. Those concessions, which may be worth up to €1,200m annually, don’t justify the injustice of having to redeem €3.8bn of unsecured and guaranteed senior Anglo/Nationwide bondholders. No pretence of a precedent exists for bailing out those investors. The previous insistence was to maintain the myth that European banks’ balance sheets were sound.
Details now emerge about excruciating terms of the promissory notes, to the value of €31bn, to fund the bailout of Anglo and INBS. We knew shortly after St Patrick’s Day, each March for a decade, we have to repay €3.1bn — let’s call it "crucifixion" day. Next year we will repay this at the rate of 8%, which will be applicable until the balance is repaid. Unless these are refinanced, we face a total interest bill of €17bn, starting with €1.8bn in 2013. Taxpayers are handcuffed to most penal dissuasive costs, despite no blame or benefit. This burden has the capacity to cause a decade of fiscal stagnation and impose unnecessary budgetary hardship. As the Greek drama unfolds, our government needs a contingency Plan B. Instead of betting solely on austerity/compliance/recovery, we need an each-way wager on debt restructuring. Smart guys at Citibank are on the right track. Their economist Willem Buiter suggests that Portugal and Ireland are entitled to similar debt relief as Greece. Excluding IMF liabilities, he argues a debt haircut of 53% can arise out of political contagion. Threats of renewed global downturn mean our creditors’ needs are secondary to ensuring Ireland’s economic recovery through debt restructuring. The Government urgently needs to create a good cop/bad cop narrative. If we argue we are doing so well, we risk creating a hostage to fortune that deprives us of parity of leniency.
Leaving aside primary government deficits, this depression is at heart a banking crisis. Balance sheets of BNP Paribas, Société Générale, Crédit Agricole, Italy’s UniCredit and Greece’s EFG Eurobank survived repeated stress tests by the European Banking Authority. It maintained that only €2.5bn recapitalisation was necessary on 91 banks that they evaluated. As in 2008, the markets extracted the truth. Since May €200bn was wiped off the value of the top 300 European shares stocks. French banks alone face a potential Greek loss of €53bn. Despite Franco-German summits, Polish presidential initiatives and G20 grandstanding of the past three weekends, no concrete consensus has emerged to preserve the Euro intact, post-Greek default. The European Financial Stability Facility needs to be boosted from €440bn to €1.7 trillion, according to US and Chinese governments and World Bank. Tim Geithner and Christine Lagarde issued repeated warnings about worldwide consequences of European leadership paralysis. Olli Rehn promises once Council decisions of July 21 are implemented new financial architecture will be constructed. The European Stability Mechanism will be fast forwarded by a year. A facility would be put in place to insure the issuance of debt, as a precursor to Eurobonds.
Markets are left in suspended animation for potentially up to six weeks. Only crumb of good news being the short-term palliative of a further €8bn for the ailing Athens administration. European banks must be recapitalised or a Lehman’s style calamity will happen on this side of the Atlantic. How unfair that the Irish had to nationalise their banks and repay their creditors, if it transpires that the EFSF is used to recapitalise continental counterparts. A financial firewall must be constructed on the basis of parity between the 17 eurozone member states. Bank nationalisation and state equity stakes are the only equitable resolutions.
A fundamental fulcrum of disagreement amongst market analysts is whether the euro currency can ultimately survive intact. If debt delinquency and prohibitive costs of sovereign finance extend to Spain and Italy, the game may be up. The ECB remains active in secondary bond markets, with €150bn purchase of sovereign gilts in recent weeks. Despite this, 10-year bond yields are edging upwards. Rating agencies continue with downgrades, S&P blithely disregarded credibility of Berlusconi’s austerity plans, reducing Italy to A status. Absolute resistance to underwriting peripheral state finances is hardening amongst hawks in Germany, Austria and Netherlands. While these fault lines persist, Eurocrats in the commission and ECB remain split and paralysed.
If, in the face of these gigantic uncertainties Ireland, maintains a "hear no evil, see no evil" mantra we end up fooling nobody. If Angela Merkel can deploy her coalition partners, Free Democrats, as hardline hawks against Eurobonds — Enda Kenny needs to counter false bravado and highlight patent injustice of our public absorption of European investors failed folly in Anglo, INBS and AIB. Each time we acquiesce to John Claude Trichet’s intransigence, we reinforce and copper fasten errors of our bank guarantee bluff. When bondholders called that in, we should have reneged.
2014 remains the crunch year for our debt servicing spike. The C&AG annual report highlights how exchequer debt servicing costs, increased last year by €1bn. Just when the bailout cash tapers off at the end of 2013, the greatest funding pressure arises on repayments. As of now €12bn is set to be repaid in the year of the local and European elections. Domestic political short sightedness dictates the Cabinet probably isn’t thinking beyond this December’s budget. Unless they construct a debt discount scenario, consequent on Greece’s collapse, they will have missed the last opportunity to escape the errors of the last administration.
Ivan Yates
Thursday, September 29, 2011
THE countdown has begun. It is a matter of when, not if, the Greek government and creditors will have to reconcile a 50% default on their sovereign debt.
With total loans of €353 billion, their national output of €200bn cannot sustain repayments. More liquidity won’t resolve underlying insolvency. Even if an interim €8bn is sanctioned in coming days, it only postpones the inevitable. IMF, World Bank, G20, US Treasury, markets and now European leaders have begun to drop denial and start planning for fallout on the euro and global economy. Ireland should rethink it's own strategy.
The Green Jersey Brigade still maintain a delusionary stance that this is unthinkable. Official Consensus Comrades, who faithfully promised us "soft landings" and "no bailout", assure us that in the worst eventuality of contagion, we are unaffected. Their constant communication strategy is to highlight we are the best boy in the bailout class and best German in the group of PIIGS. They trumpeted most recent quarterly CSO growth statistics as confirmation of economic progress, despite previous accuracy warnings of subsequent adjustment in annualised returns and poor July industrial figures.
They promise audiences our appetite for austerity remains unsated and eagerly advocate frontloading more pain. Above all, their central tenet is that our debt is "manageable ". National debt officially stands at €93bn. Comptroller and Auditor General estimates it to be €148bn by the end of last year. Market analysts assess the total at €173bn. GDP is stuck on €164bn. Each concession of lower interest costs and extended repayment periods are trumpeted as a game changer of debt sustainability. Those concessions, which may be worth up to €1,200m annually, don’t justify the injustice of having to redeem €3.8bn of unsecured and guaranteed senior Anglo/Nationwide bondholders. No pretence of a precedent exists for bailing out those investors. The previous insistence was to maintain the myth that European banks’ balance sheets were sound.
Details now emerge about excruciating terms of the promissory notes, to the value of €31bn, to fund the bailout of Anglo and INBS. We knew shortly after St Patrick’s Day, each March for a decade, we have to repay €3.1bn — let’s call it "crucifixion" day. Next year we will repay this at the rate of 8%, which will be applicable until the balance is repaid. Unless these are refinanced, we face a total interest bill of €17bn, starting with €1.8bn in 2013. Taxpayers are handcuffed to most penal dissuasive costs, despite no blame or benefit. This burden has the capacity to cause a decade of fiscal stagnation and impose unnecessary budgetary hardship. As the Greek drama unfolds, our government needs a contingency Plan B. Instead of betting solely on austerity/compliance/recovery, we need an each-way wager on debt restructuring. Smart guys at Citibank are on the right track. Their economist Willem Buiter suggests that Portugal and Ireland are entitled to similar debt relief as Greece. Excluding IMF liabilities, he argues a debt haircut of 53% can arise out of political contagion. Threats of renewed global downturn mean our creditors’ needs are secondary to ensuring Ireland’s economic recovery through debt restructuring. The Government urgently needs to create a good cop/bad cop narrative. If we argue we are doing so well, we risk creating a hostage to fortune that deprives us of parity of leniency.
Leaving aside primary government deficits, this depression is at heart a banking crisis. Balance sheets of BNP Paribas, Société Générale, Crédit Agricole, Italy’s UniCredit and Greece’s EFG Eurobank survived repeated stress tests by the European Banking Authority. It maintained that only €2.5bn recapitalisation was necessary on 91 banks that they evaluated. As in 2008, the markets extracted the truth. Since May €200bn was wiped off the value of the top 300 European shares stocks. French banks alone face a potential Greek loss of €53bn. Despite Franco-German summits, Polish presidential initiatives and G20 grandstanding of the past three weekends, no concrete consensus has emerged to preserve the Euro intact, post-Greek default. The European Financial Stability Facility needs to be boosted from €440bn to €1.7 trillion, according to US and Chinese governments and World Bank. Tim Geithner and Christine Lagarde issued repeated warnings about worldwide consequences of European leadership paralysis. Olli Rehn promises once Council decisions of July 21 are implemented new financial architecture will be constructed. The European Stability Mechanism will be fast forwarded by a year. A facility would be put in place to insure the issuance of debt, as a precursor to Eurobonds.
Markets are left in suspended animation for potentially up to six weeks. Only crumb of good news being the short-term palliative of a further €8bn for the ailing Athens administration. European banks must be recapitalised or a Lehman’s style calamity will happen on this side of the Atlantic. How unfair that the Irish had to nationalise their banks and repay their creditors, if it transpires that the EFSF is used to recapitalise continental counterparts. A financial firewall must be constructed on the basis of parity between the 17 eurozone member states. Bank nationalisation and state equity stakes are the only equitable resolutions.
A fundamental fulcrum of disagreement amongst market analysts is whether the euro currency can ultimately survive intact. If debt delinquency and prohibitive costs of sovereign finance extend to Spain and Italy, the game may be up. The ECB remains active in secondary bond markets, with €150bn purchase of sovereign gilts in recent weeks. Despite this, 10-year bond yields are edging upwards. Rating agencies continue with downgrades, S&P blithely disregarded credibility of Berlusconi’s austerity plans, reducing Italy to A status. Absolute resistance to underwriting peripheral state finances is hardening amongst hawks in Germany, Austria and Netherlands. While these fault lines persist, Eurocrats in the commission and ECB remain split and paralysed.
If, in the face of these gigantic uncertainties Ireland, maintains a "hear no evil, see no evil" mantra we end up fooling nobody. If Angela Merkel can deploy her coalition partners, Free Democrats, as hardline hawks against Eurobonds — Enda Kenny needs to counter false bravado and highlight patent injustice of our public absorption of European investors failed folly in Anglo, INBS and AIB. Each time we acquiesce to John Claude Trichet’s intransigence, we reinforce and copper fasten errors of our bank guarantee bluff. When bondholders called that in, we should have reneged.
2014 remains the crunch year for our debt servicing spike. The C&AG annual report highlights how exchequer debt servicing costs, increased last year by €1bn. Just when the bailout cash tapers off at the end of 2013, the greatest funding pressure arises on repayments. As of now €12bn is set to be repaid in the year of the local and European elections. Domestic political short sightedness dictates the Cabinet probably isn’t thinking beyond this December’s budget. Unless they construct a debt discount scenario, consequent on Greece’s collapse, they will have missed the last opportunity to escape the errors of the last administration.
C.Bonacieux
Forumer attivo
Nobody's
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Già
....e vero...che scemo 
GERMAN FIN MIN SAYS SPECULATION ABOUT CHANGES TO EFSF BEYOND 211 BLN EUROS FOR GERMAN CONTRIBUTION IS INDECENT
tommy271
Forumer storico
Eureca Proposal Failed To Provide Concrete Solution
Merkel needed a plan such as Eureca ahead of the voting of EFSF in Bundestag to address the Greek crisis and divert public attention away from the EFSF and ECB, and she got it.
In fact, it is a past proposal submitted by consultants when a broader issue of collaterals has been raised for the second aid program.
However, it is not certain if the revival of this plan would allow the German Chancellor ensure the required internal support to pass the bill for the new EFSF role. In this case, political consequences of support by the opposition could worsen the political crisis in the country.
Diplomatic sources told Capital.gr that Merkel’s team is absolutely convinced that the double risk of debt crisis and banks could not be addressed by simply isolating the Greek risk with a solution such as Eureca.
They admit that the problem has been expanded and should be treated as a whole.
The prolonged pressure in Italy and Spain, and the increased pressures on the banking system contributed to that.
In this ... helps the prolonged pressure of the markets in Italy and Spain and the increased pressures on the banking system.
Besides the technical difficulties, Eureka is a proposal that could not be applied to other Eurozone countries.
The main issue that continues to concern politicians and bankers is how to get a guarantor of European debt without spoiling the high credit ratings of Germany, France, Holland and other countries with AAA-rating.
All present projects involve EFSF or ECB, while a recent proposal includes the establishment of a special fund (SPV) to be financed by the EFSF via European Investment Bank also has the risk of undermining the credit rating of its funders.
Focus is now on ECB, as no one seems willing to accept the ECB taking up a similar role as FED, to print money without a single European government.
An alternative version of these proposals faced the similar obstacles.
Information indicates that if the voting of July 21 agreement and the new EFSF role passes new proposals might be heard at the Eurogroup meeting on Monday.
(capital.gr)
Merkel needed a plan such as Eureca ahead of the voting of EFSF in Bundestag to address the Greek crisis and divert public attention away from the EFSF and ECB, and she got it.
In fact, it is a past proposal submitted by consultants when a broader issue of collaterals has been raised for the second aid program.
However, it is not certain if the revival of this plan would allow the German Chancellor ensure the required internal support to pass the bill for the new EFSF role. In this case, political consequences of support by the opposition could worsen the political crisis in the country.
Diplomatic sources told Capital.gr that Merkel’s team is absolutely convinced that the double risk of debt crisis and banks could not be addressed by simply isolating the Greek risk with a solution such as Eureca.
They admit that the problem has been expanded and should be treated as a whole.
The prolonged pressure in Italy and Spain, and the increased pressures on the banking system contributed to that.
In this ... helps the prolonged pressure of the markets in Italy and Spain and the increased pressures on the banking system.
Besides the technical difficulties, Eureka is a proposal that could not be applied to other Eurozone countries.
The main issue that continues to concern politicians and bankers is how to get a guarantor of European debt without spoiling the high credit ratings of Germany, France, Holland and other countries with AAA-rating.
All present projects involve EFSF or ECB, while a recent proposal includes the establishment of a special fund (SPV) to be financed by the EFSF via European Investment Bank also has the risk of undermining the credit rating of its funders.
Focus is now on ECB, as no one seems willing to accept the ECB taking up a similar role as FED, to print money without a single European government.
An alternative version of these proposals faced the similar obstacles.
Information indicates that if the voting of July 21 agreement and the new EFSF role passes new proposals might be heard at the Eurogroup meeting on Monday.
(capital.gr)
PASTELLETTO
Guest
Già
GERMAN FIN MIN SAYS SPECULATION ABOUT CHANGES TO EFSF BEYOND 211 BLN EUROS FOR GERMAN CONTRIBUTION IS INDECENTReuters - 29/09/2011 10:34:02
Cazzi loro.
Potevano pensarci prima di comprare obbligazioni a mazzetta.
Questo glielo hanno spiegato al tetesco medio di cccermania?
Nobody's
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