Haircut Would Determine Pension Reductions
There are three conditions that would determine the future of Greek pension funds and the action of pensions: rate of haircut, the course of Greek economy and the country’s ability or willingness to meet its obligations.
Thus, the write-downs of insurance organizations would not automatically lead to reduced pensions. On the other hand, a mixture of 50%-60% haircut, budget deficits and government’s intention to exempt from obligations could cause sharp reduction in pensions, while a reform in the insurance system should not be ruled out.
Non-use or improper use of insurance reserves in recent years caused a reduction of funds’ assets. In late 2008, total assets were estimated at €31 billion, while they do not exceed €26 billion in the first half of 2011, of which less than €22 billion are in Greek bonds.
Insurance funds hold bonds of nominal value €7.85 billion, while funds of €14 billion are secured in the Bank of Greece, which has invested in bonds. In case of a 50% haircut, losses would amount to €11 billion, while the insurance funds would lose an important source of liquidity, coupons.
Administrations of pension funds and workers’ representatives request the exclusion of funds from the haircut and a solution similar to that of July 21, in which pension funds were able to exchange their bonds with new ones of 30-year maturity.
It should be noted that the largest insurance agency IKA has resorted to bonds, repos and internal borrowing to pay November pensions.
If the Greek economy continues to sink into recession, high unemployment and budget deficits, it is inevitable that the financing of funds would get even more difficult and the state might not be able to meet its statutory obligations. Then, reduction in pension would be possible.
The Labour Ministry is already preparing scenarios for cuts, considering the reduction of supplementary pension as given. The increase of labour contributions is under examination, but the Troika is strongly against, as the European Commission said in a report that contributions in Greece are among the highest in the EU.
Another scenario provides a new special tax in order to raise funds that would replace cut bonds in case of an emergency.
(capital.gr)