Titoli di Stato area Euro GRECIA Operativo titoli di stato - Cap. 2
- Creatore Discussione tommy271
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
Nobody's
Γένοιο οἷος εἷ
PASTELLETTO
Guest
Scusate la domanda: ma quando parlano di ricapitalizzazione delle banche parlano di aumenti di capitale a raffica?
Se è così questo non dovrebbe influire negativamente in futuro sulle quotazioni del comparto bancario?
Se è così questo non dovrebbe influire negativamente in futuro sulle quotazioni del comparto bancario?
Nobody's
Γένοιο οἷος εἷ
IFR-COMMENT: EFSF still widening ... France stable for now
Reuters - 19/10/2011 17:20:51
by Divyang Shah
LONDON, Oct 19 (IFR) -
While the 10-year spread on France has narrowed today (after earlier post-EMU record wides) we continue to see pressure on EFSF bonds.
Indeed the EFSF 2.75% 07/16 is now at a spread of 55.5bps to MS (compared to 40bps on Monday and 50bps yesterday). As long as the EFSF is widening we do not think that the widening on 10yr France/Germany is over and still see potential for the spread to move to 130bps.
The AAA EFSF and AAA France are both linked by the fact that 1) France is seen at risk of losing its AAA status and 2) the guarantor nature of France within the EFSF. As we highlighted yesterday ("AAA EFSF and AAA France joined at the hip"; Oct 18) what we are seeing on French bonds is likely a catch-up play with what we saw with the EFSF bonds since mid-Sept.
Why mid-Sept? Because this is the time when discussions over leveraging the EFSF first surfaced and investors started to fret over an expanded and leveraged EFSF
The fact remains that while we are waiting for further news on how and to what extent the EFSF will be leveraged the market is already pricing in the prospect of digesting increased supply. To date the EFSF has issued three bonds with a total volume of 13bn related to the bailouts of Ireland (17.7bn) and Portugal (26bn) but over the coming months the EFSF will have to deal with 1) the second Greek bailout 2) possible bank recapitalization and 3) likely insuring the debts of Italy and Spain.
Credit Agricole estimates that gross issuance from Italy will be 215bn (193bn redemptions and 27bn budget deficit) while for Spain the figure is 82bn (46bn redemptions and budget deficit of 36bn). On the assumption that 20% is EFSF guaranteed this gives us a figure of 59.5bn which is likely to be at the upper end as any positive impact on Italy and Spain will likely be used to reduce the extent of leverage delivered. Unlike the second Greek bailout and bank recapitalizations the EFSF does not need to be in the market for this 59.5bn. However, investor concerns over correlation risk would suggest that prefunding for the 59.5bn insurance makes sense if investors are going to be reassured.
The likely issuance from the EFSF is higher but manageable although one would think that it could lead to a cannibalizing of demand for those on the verge of AAA territory. If there is uncertainty related to supply from the EFSF then it is related to what role it will play in recapitalizing banks should some national governments fail to come up with the necessary funds.
LONDON, Oct 19 (IFR) -
While the 10-year spread on France has narrowed today (after earlier post-EMU record wides) we continue to see pressure on EFSF bonds.
Indeed the EFSF 2.75% 07/16 is now at a spread of 55.5bps to MS (compared to 40bps on Monday and 50bps yesterday). As long as the EFSF is widening we do not think that the widening on 10yr France/Germany is over and still see potential for the spread to move to 130bps.
The AAA EFSF and AAA France are both linked by the fact that 1) France is seen at risk of losing its AAA status and 2) the guarantor nature of France within the EFSF. As we highlighted yesterday ("AAA EFSF and AAA France joined at the hip"; Oct 18) what we are seeing on French bonds is likely a catch-up play with what we saw with the EFSF bonds since mid-Sept.
Why mid-Sept? Because this is the time when discussions over leveraging the EFSF first surfaced and investors started to fret over an expanded and leveraged EFSF
The fact remains that while we are waiting for further news on how and to what extent the EFSF will be leveraged the market is already pricing in the prospect of digesting increased supply. To date the EFSF has issued three bonds with a total volume of 13bn related to the bailouts of Ireland (17.7bn) and Portugal (26bn) but over the coming months the EFSF will have to deal with 1) the second Greek bailout 2) possible bank recapitalization and 3) likely insuring the debts of Italy and Spain.
Credit Agricole estimates that gross issuance from Italy will be 215bn (193bn redemptions and 27bn budget deficit) while for Spain the figure is 82bn (46bn redemptions and budget deficit of 36bn). On the assumption that 20% is EFSF guaranteed this gives us a figure of 59.5bn which is likely to be at the upper end as any positive impact on Italy and Spain will likely be used to reduce the extent of leverage delivered. Unlike the second Greek bailout and bank recapitalizations the EFSF does not need to be in the market for this 59.5bn. However, investor concerns over correlation risk would suggest that prefunding for the 59.5bn insurance makes sense if investors are going to be reassured.
The likely issuance from the EFSF is higher but manageable although one would think that it could lead to a cannibalizing of demand for those on the verge of AAA territory. If there is uncertainty related to supply from the EFSF then it is related to what role it will play in recapitalizing banks should some national governments fail to come up with the necessary funds.
EDESMO
GGB: Est!, Est?, Est.....
ficodindia
Forumer storico
Gli obiettivi della protesta.
Quali sono gli obiettivi della protesta in corso oggi e domani?
Credo che le parole d'ordine della protesta siano fuorvianti. Innanzi tutto perchè i responsabili del disastro greco sono i rappresentanti di ND che attualmente sono all'opposizione. Inoltre se veramente i manifestanti dovessero raggiungere gli obiettivi dichiarati, ossia quelli di abrogare gli accordi con la troika, e quindi le misure di austerità previste dal programma governativo, si rischia il default e di privare lo stato dei fondi necessari per pagare, tra l'altro, stipendi e pensioni. Purtroppo la Grecia è stata vittime di un governo incapace e corrotto di cui il popolo greco, e soprattutto la povera gente, ne sta pagando pesantemente le conseguenze.
A fronte della crisi attuale quali dovrebbero essere le parole d'ordine di una protesta? Secondo me la protesta dovrebbe essere indirizzata contro i responsabili politici del disastro greco, ND, e gli organi dell UEM per indurli ad adottare un piano di investimenti europeo finanziato da strumenti efficaci e sovranazionali come ad esempio gli eurobond, per allentare i vincoli posti dal deficit di bilancio greco.
Quali sono gli obiettivi della protesta in corso oggi e domani?
Credo che le parole d'ordine della protesta siano fuorvianti. Innanzi tutto perchè i responsabili del disastro greco sono i rappresentanti di ND che attualmente sono all'opposizione. Inoltre se veramente i manifestanti dovessero raggiungere gli obiettivi dichiarati, ossia quelli di abrogare gli accordi con la troika, e quindi le misure di austerità previste dal programma governativo, si rischia il default e di privare lo stato dei fondi necessari per pagare, tra l'altro, stipendi e pensioni. Purtroppo la Grecia è stata vittime di un governo incapace e corrotto di cui il popolo greco, e soprattutto la povera gente, ne sta pagando pesantemente le conseguenze.
A fronte della crisi attuale quali dovrebbero essere le parole d'ordine di una protesta? Secondo me la protesta dovrebbe essere indirizzata contro i responsabili politici del disastro greco, ND, e gli organi dell UEM per indurli ad adottare un piano di investimenti europeo finanziato da strumenti efficaci e sovranazionali come ad esempio gli eurobond, per allentare i vincoli posti dal deficit di bilancio greco.
karl
M.A.S.
Adesso sono diventati 363k; è vero che sul Mot ha mosso pochissimo, ora 10k, quando avevo guardato prima erano 5k.
Nobody's
Γένοιο οἷος εἷ
EU's Barroso says ECB bond buys crucial for financial stability
Reuters - 19/10/2011 17:28:10
FRANKFURT, Oct 19 (Reuters) -
European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said on Wednesday that the European Central Bank was playing a crucial role in ensuring the euro zone's financial stability with its bond buys.
"The decisive intervention of the ECB in secondary bond markets was and still is a critical element in securing financial stability in the euro area," Barroso told an event in Frankfurt to mark the end of Jean-Claude Trichet's presidency of the European Central Bank.
European Commission President Jose Manuel Barroso said on Wednesday that the European Central Bank was playing a crucial role in ensuring the euro zone's financial stability with its bond buys.
"The decisive intervention of the ECB in secondary bond markets was and still is a critical element in securing financial stability in the euro area," Barroso told an event in Frankfurt to mark the end of Jean-Claude Trichet's presidency of the European Central Bank.
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