Journal to portfolio afterlife

[black-opal]

Il soft power cinese.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1705572551550799977

 

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1705553310822834437

 

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1705604049674944563

 

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Le riserve di oro delle banche centrali (ufficiali e non dichiarate) dovrebbero avere raggiunto nuovi massimi. E si preferisce accumulare oro che treasuries americani.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1705518511882199362

 

[black-opal]

Non vedo il problema, con alti tassi molte zombie companies falliranno. Da una ferita infetta devi fare uscire il pus. Altre aziende prenderanno la loro quota di mercato.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1705645196120326209

 

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Lo avevo già postato: perchè lo spread delle obbligazioni high yield non sale? Perchè c'è poco debito da rifinanziare sino alla fine del prossimo anno. E poi manca il dato sulle riserve di liquidità, sono aumentate o diminuite negli ultimi anni?

https://twitter.com/x/status/1705751427711148538

 

[black-opal]

Since Grayscale Investments’ legal victory last month over the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission in its fight to convert its Grayscale Bitcoin Trust into an ETF, the outlook for a digital asset exchange-traded fund has never looked brighter—though the final outcome remains to be seen, in part because of a possible SEC appeal.

After Grayscale’s victory, the trust’s discount shrank to its lowest level ever, hovering around 17-18%, down from its high of 43% after the collapse of crypto exchange FTX in late 2022. Yet if Grayscale’s win in court was such a victory, why is the discount not lower or even at zero?
“While it’s true that GBTC’s discount is down—at 18%, it’s at its lowest level in nearly two years—the fact that it’s not even closer to zero suggests there’s still some concern that the trust might not be able to convert into an ETF,” etf.com analyst Sumit Roy said.

https://www.etf.com/sections/news/heres-why-grayscales-trust-discount-isnt-lower

 

[black-opal]

Remember, short duration instruments like T-Bills are great short-term principal stabilizers and terrible long-term inflation hedges while longer duration instruments like stocks tend to be excellent long-term inflation hedges and terrible short-term principal stabilizers.

Should You T-Bill and Chill?

T-Bills are an incredibly attractive option at this time. At 5.5% you're getting high income, high principal stability and tax efficiency across very predictable short-term time horizons. These are the highest rates we've seen since the mid-2000s so it's a welcome change from the 10 years of...

disciplinefunds.com

 

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Fare previsioni corrette è difficile mentre trovare giustificazioni sbagliate è facile.

When predictions go wrong - the defensive responses

Global macro, systematic investing, alternative risk premia

mrzepczynski.blogspot.com

 

[black-opal]

Il fattore discriminante è che chi studia di più ha maggiori capacità negli investimenti, o chi studia di più guadagna di più e ha maggiori possibilità di accantonare risparmi da investire con costanza? E poi chi ha più risparmi da parte corre di meno il rischio di dover disinvestire nel momento sbagliato per cause di forza maggiore (perdita lavoro, divorzio, ecc.).

What is less obvious, though, is that college graduates on average have a 3.7% higher return on their savings than non-college graduates. Over a 30-year period of saving for retirement, that means college graduates end up with three times as much wealth as non-college graduates.

However, the largest part of the outperformance is not driven by higher stock market participation. It is driven instead by increased portfolio diversification and more persistent participation in markets. One of the key slogans in personal finance is that time in the market trumps timing the market.

More can be better – education edition

Yesterday, I wrote about how analysts who provide more in-depth forecasts for the stocks they cover are better able to forecast earnings, giving them an edge over their peers. Today, I want to focus on education and how more education can give people an edge in their investment returns.

klementoninvesting.substack.com