Journal to portfolio afterlife

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Focusing on the wrong things is not only exhausting, but it encourages the worst of our investing behaviours – what we think is an effort to add value is very likely to be destroying it. Instead of engaging in the search for the next critical fragment of information or attempting to predict, with high confidence, the next meaningful variable, we should take a different approach and ask – what really matters?

For most investors there are two types of variables, dull and predictable ones (valuation, time horizons etc…) which always tend to matter over the long-run, and exciting and volatile ones, which tend to receive all the attention. This is understandable. Unpredictable variables are changeable, exciting and dominate our thinking. They allow us to weave compelling narratives and express distinctive views. It is hard to forge a career focusing on what everyone already knows and ignoring what everyone is talking about.

What Matters?

One of the most profound problems encountered by investors is deciding what matters. We are faced with an incessant barrage of noise and must somehow parse relevant information from it; it’s like a…

behaviouralinvestment.com

 

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1705908811230323198

 

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1705900053091463584

 

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However, no amount of planning can eliminate all risk. If you can’t tolerate uncertainty, you can end up fixated on trying to control what is fundamentally uncontrollable.

If you can make peace with risk—allowing the possibility that you may ultimately fail—you’ll actually lead more effectively. When a crisis arises, you won’t freak out. You’ll simply assess the situation and place your bet, without wasting undue energy worrying about what you can’t control.

Instead of reacting to uncertainty with more attempts at control, there is valor in stepping into the unknown with courage, committing to life and the uncertainty it brings.

The Paradox of Control

Sometimes you need to let go to succeed

every.to

 

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1705926318850703644

 

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Direi che hanno già scontato parecchio pessimismo.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1705948845509951963

 

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1705954738918076755

 

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Come scrissi mesi fa, se le assicurazioni inglesi si rifiutano di assicurare le spedizioni di greggio russo, provvede qualcun'altro con un premio più alto.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1706121379941097779

The Kyiv School of Economics (KSE) has estimated that the steady increase in crude prices since July, combined with Russia’s success in reducing the discount on its own oil, means that the country’s oil revenues are likely to be at least $15bn higher for 2023 than they would have been.
The shift is a double blow for western efforts to restrict Russia’s revenues from oil sales — which make up the biggest part of the Kremlin’s budget — following its full-scale invasion of Ukraine.
Not only is a higher proportion of Russian oil being sold outside the cap, but Moscow’s increasing independence as a seller has coincided with a strong rally in oil prices, which topped $95 a barrel for the first time in 13 months this week.

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www.ft.com

https://twitter.com/x/status/1706038585969815717

 

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https://twitter.com/x/status/1672267317156413442

 

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L'industria tedesca non potrà che migliorare con costi produttivi più alti.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1706113689626022127