Journal to portfolio afterlife (2 lettori)

portfolioafterlife

too fast for love
La narrativa di Frank Holmes sulla situazione dei mercati è in linea con le mie idee, ma questo non significa che saremo dalla parte giusta della storia. Nell'articolo vengono forniti alcuni dati.

As always, I recommend a 10% weighting in gold, with 5% in physical bullion and 5% in high-quality gold mining stocks, mutual funds and ETFs. I also think an allocation of around 2% in Bitcoin, or “digital gold,” also makes sense, especially now with its price still significantly discounted from its all-time high.
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portfolioafterlife

too fast for love
Fare previsioni è sempre molto difficile, o meglio, fare previsioni è facile, azzeccare le previsioni è difficile. Eccone una.

What reasons do we have to believe we may be entering or have already entered a secular bear market driven by high inflation?

Here are a few:
  1. Negative Expected Equity Returns
    • In 2000, when the U.S. equity market was transitioning into a secular bear market driven by low real earnings growth, the Aggregate Investor Allocation to Equities (AIAE) was forecasting -1% annualized returns over the ensuing 10 years. The actual annualized return for U.S. equities from 2000-2010 ended up being -0.2%.
    • In 2009, when the U.S. equity market was presumably exiting the aforementioned secular bear market and entering the most recent secular bull market, the AIAE was forecasting returns of 15.8% annualized from 2009 to 2019. The market ended up delivering 16% annualized over that time period.
    • At the most recent U.S. equity market peak in December 2021, the AIAE was forecasting slightly negative annualized returns for U.S. equities over the next 10 years (i.e., from 2021-2031). That is, at current levels, there does not appear to be much sustainable upside for U.S. equities over the next decade. This lack of sustainable upside seems much more likely to be associated with an impending secular bear market rather than with the continuation of the preceding secular bull market.
  2. The Last Shall Be First
    • The premise of the long-term reversal factor is that assets that have strongly underperformed over the intermediate past (e.g., 5 years or more), tend to outperform going forward. So, let’s ask ourselves, “Which assets have underperformed over the last decade?” Precisely the ones we would expect to outperform in a high inflation environment—namely, energy stocks, materials stocks, commodities, etc.
    • Indeed, Russia, a country with substantial exposure to commodities, had a CAPE ratio of only 8 in 2018 (and low CAPE ratios have been associated with high future returns).
    • Further, since the bottom of the COVID selloff on March 24th, 2020, energy stocks have delivered the highest total return of any of the 10 S&P 500 sectors.
  3. Actual High Inflation
    • It goes without saying that in order for us to be in a secular bear market driven by high inflation, we should actually be observing high inflation! And we are. It’s the talk of the town. High inflation is showing up in the official statistics (7% year-over-year CPI in December 2021), as well as anecdotally. It’s caused the Federal Reserve to pivot from its stance of inflation being “transitory” to forecasting multiple rate hikes in 2022.
In addition to these solid pieces of evidence, we also have data from how institutions and individuals are positioning themselves in the derivatives markets. And the implication is sobering.
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Se questo è un monito da prendere in seria considerazione, lo scopriremo vivendo.
The takeaway is that while investors have become highly conditioned to buy the dip, the current dip is occurring with relative sentiment significantly bearish (i.e., retail likes equities more than institutions). Historically, that has not been a great time to buy equities.
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alphaarchitect.com

What Relative Sentiment Says About Market Regime Change

The weight of the evidence suggests we recently exited a secular bull market driven by high real earnings growth and have entered a secular bear market driven by high inflation. The takeaway is that while investors have become highly conditioned to buy the dip, the current dip is occurring with...
alphaarchitect.com alphaarchitect.com
 

portfolioafterlife

too fast for love
Da quanto ho letto in giro, mi pare che la Svizzera abbia una regolamentazione molto più favorevole alle crypto rispetto ad UK.

www.swissinfo.ch

La Svizzera affronta la sfida della gentrificazione delle criptovalute

Le criptovalute sono state ripulite e rese adatte al consumo in Svizzera con ampie riforme legali e una supervisione normativa.
www.swissinfo.ch www.swissinfo.ch

www.cityam.com

Matt Hancock: Britain will be left in the dust with our tepid attitude to cryptocurrencies - CityAM

We were already living in an age of change like no other. Now the pandemic has accelerated that change and Britain must embrace the opportunities it brings, or we will lose out. Most obvious is the Zoom revolution. There have been more rapid changes to the way we work in the past two years than...
www.cityam.com www.cityam.com
 

portfolioafterlife

too fast for love
Questi sono i componenti dell'indice hang seng tech.

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