Journal to portfolio afterlife

[portfolioafterlife]

While Bernstein’s book predated both those crises, he was one of the first to identify the perennial tension between those who believe the best decisions are based on quantification and numbers, built on past patterns, and those who look more to subjective degrees of belief about an uncertain future.

“The issue boils down to one’s view about the extent to which the past determines the future,” he wrote. “It is one thing to set up a mathematical model that appears to explain everything. But when we face the struggle of daily life, of constant trial and error, the ambiguity of the facts as well as the power of the human heartbeat can obliterate the model in short order.”

We have to remember, Bernstein wrote, that numbers are only tools. Computers can crunch billions of bits of data, but managing risk is as much about human judgement as it is about a mathematical equation.

“Past data from real life constitute a sequence of events rather than a set of independent observations, which is what the laws of probability demand. It is in those outliers and imperfections that the wildness lurks.”

The odds and the gods: the origins of risk management | TEBI

The idea of humans seeking to manage risk was once seen as blasphemous. The view in medieval times was that only God could determine our fate and that any attempt to master risk was to interfere with the forces of the universe. The distance we have travelled since those days is mapped out […]

www.evidenceinvestor.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Una parte di portafoglio ludico ci sta, se è limitata.

For lottery buyers, the weekly ticket may their only way out of a life they hate or their only chance to dream big. For day traders, the risky punt on outsized gains may be the only way they can see of making an aggressive win quickly.

So the emotions and motivations driving the lottery effect are real. The big question is what can you do about them? One suggestion, advocated by some financial advisers, is to seek that gratification of the outsized payoff, the camaraderie, and the status of winning against the odds in other less harmful ways – like playing Fantasy Premier League for instance.

Alternatively, you could treat betting on individual stocks as a hobby, limit your stakes, and accept that your chances of winning are slim. Your real, long-term investments could be held in a portfolio of highly diversified global stocks and bonds.

Buying meme stocks is like playing the lottery | TEBI

The enthusiasm for ‘meme’ stocks that gain cult-like social media followings has thrown a spotlight on the ‘lottery effect’ in investing.

www.evidenceinvestor.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Qualcuno prevede di alzare i tassi (fed) e qualcun'altro di abbassarli (pboc). Che l'investimento nell' indice hang seng tech sia stata una scelta oculata? Spero di sì.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486497239002402825

 

[portfolioafterlife]

E' tutto relativo, ma alla fine contano orizzonte temporale e il reale profilo di rischio/opportunità.

An estimated 3 million people have chosen to retire early since the start of the pandemic. More than 50% of Americans over age 55 are now retired. Easy monetary policy and the threat of changing tax laws lead to a record number of sales of privately held businesses last year. These newly retired and newly liquid investors are feeling this selloff in a different way.

The human brain is not designed to take a pile of money, put it at risk to daily fluctuations in value, and focus on what it could be worth three decades from now. Our brains react to danger in the moment. If our ancestors saw something that looked like a tiger, they ran away. It didn’t matter if they were wrong, they lived to see another day.

We Don't Get to Choose - The Belle Curve

We don’t get to choose when the market sells off. For most of us, this dip in the market is just another aberration on the long journey from start to finish. But for some, this market correction is occurring at a very sensitive time. An estimated 3 million people have chosen to retire early since...

blairbellecurve.com

If you have a long enough time horizon and a diversified portfolio, buying at lower prices will increase your long-term return potential. Which is why a stock market crash is actually the best thing that could happen to young investors.

Are You Investing or Merely Speculating?

“Whether you’re excited or nervous when your favorite asset falls in price marks whether you’re investing or merely speculating.” – Naval Ravikant (Founder of AngelList) Are you investing or merely speculating? Naval Ravikant had an interesting take on this most important of questions. The...

compoundadvisors.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Nelle dinamiche di prezzo del bitcoin bisogna tenere presente che la maggiorparte sono Long-Term Holders (82%). Negli ultimi tempi gli short term holders sono scesi di parecchio come percentuale di possesso di bitcoin e la quasi totalità di essi sono in perdita.

Sizing Up a Bitcoin Bear

As Bitcoin prices are cut in half from the ATH, the market experiences a large onchain capitulation event, with $2.5B in net realised losses. In response we analyse whether a macro bear has taken the reigns.

insights.glassnode.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

“If you're going to invest in bitcoin, a short-time horizon is four years, a mid-time horizon is 10 years. The right time horizon is forever,” MicroStrategy CEO Michael Saylor told Bloomberg.

People are freaking out about a new ‘crypto winter’

This crypto crash is different from past ones. With far bigger bets at stake and inflation on the horizon, the market is hitting “uncharted territory.”

www.protocol.com

Bloomberg - Are you a robot?

 

[portfolioafterlife]

La sec non ne vuole sapere di un etf sul bitcoin con prezzo spot.

 

[portfolioafterlife]

YOLO ...

In 2021, $292 billion (net) of U.S. stocks and ETFs were bought by individual traders—more than 7 times the amount in 2019—and 2022 looks like it will be just as busy. However, a lot of amateur investors—inexperienced, taking on debt without understanding what they were doing, and goaded into riskier strategies—lost money. And with more volatility ahead, some managers believe that new investors will be bumped out of the market. But if there’s one thing new investors seem to have in common, it’s a strong stomach for volatility. In 2021, the eight biggest buying days by new investors were when the S&P 500 dropped 1.3% or more.

The Pros Are Paying Attention to Day Traders – Validea's Guru Investor Blog

According to a survey by Bloomberg Intelligence, 85% of hedge funds and 42% of asset managers are tracking retail-trading message boards in an attempt to determine where the herd of day traders might stampede next, reports an article in The Wall Street Journal. It’s an example of how much new...

blog.validea.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Il controllo del turnover del portafoglio è essenziale per evitare i friction costs (commissioni, spread, tasse), visto che non è detto che le operazioni effettuate siano fruttuose (alpha).

Nel prossimo report aggiungerò anche l'annual portfolio turnover ratio del portafoglio, mettendo nella formula il controvalore netto del portafoglio di inizio periodo.

http://dows.com/Publications/Portfolio_Turnover_Common_Stock.pdf

Questo è il target considerato best practice...

"Oprtimal" turnover for investment performance is not a well-defined concept, though a review of current literature on the subject points to a 4-year holding period (25% turnover) as a reasonable estimate. This is well below the average turnover rate identified in this analysis.

...e questa è la realtà dei fondi di investimento:

https://2degrees-investing.org/wp-content/uploads/2017/02/the-long-and-winding-road-1.pdf

Certo va detto che dipende dal tipo di confronti che si fanno: un fondo small caps internazionale è diverso da un fondo di investimento flessibile, confrontare tra loro il turnover ratio è poco realistico.

Per avere un termine di paragone prendiamo il mio fondo pensione Cometa Reddito: turnover ratio 72% (pag. 26 di 31). Va ricordato che hanno anche i flussi in ingresso/uscita da gestire...

https://www.cometafondo.it/cms/doc/1029/nota-informativa-cometa-2021-2.pdf

Per avere alcuni raffronti:

• turnover rate Vanguard Russell 2000 Index Fund 22,7%
• turnover rate msci world 2,5%
• turnover rate msci emerging markets 6,6%
• turnover rate msci world momentum 107,6%

https://advisors.vanguard.com/iippdf/pdfs/FS1851.pdf

https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/178e6643-6ae6-47b9-82be-e1fc565ededb

https://www.msci.com/documents/10199/904e031c-94e4-4dbc-a314-7c373446dffa

 

[portfolioafterlife]

L' annual turnover rate del mio portafoglio, calcolato col solo mese di gennaio, è del 50% 63% (avevo dimenticato le operazioni su dossier lombard e proventi distribuiti). Spero di fare meglio in futuro, per contenere le operazioni, però gennaio è stato molto volatile sugli asset di rischio e ho cercato di approffitarne facendo un po' di acquisti a prezzi più bassi.