Journal to portfolio afterlife

[portfolioafterlife]

Come ho già scritto, i numeri pur essendo corretti qualche volta mentono.

Lies, Damn Lies and Market Valuation – Validea's Guru Investor Blog

By Jack Forehand, CFA, CFP® (@practicalquant) — There has been a lot of talk in recent years about the market’s valuation. And much of that talk has been centered around how expensive it is. You won’t find me arguing with many of those takes, since I have said similar things myself. But it is...

blog.validea.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

if you are looking for success in investing, your chances are better if you take the indirect approach, i.e., finding the ‘anti-patterns.’ In other words, finding ways which most often lead to losses and then actively try to avoid those patterns. Some such anti-patterns include –

• Chasing performance
• Looking to get rich quick
• Ignoring market cycles
• Letting emotions guide decisions
• Failure to accept mistakes and cut losses
• Venturing beyond circle of competence
• Ignoring margin of safety
• Driven by FOMO – fear of missing out

Identifying Investing's Anti-Patterns - Safal Niveshak

If you are looking for success in investing, your chances are better if you take the indirect approach, i.e., finding the 'anti-patterns.' In other words, finding ways which most often lead to losses and then actively try to avoid those patterns.

www.safalniveshak.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Quanta verità c'è in queste parole!

We buy stuff to cheer ourselves up, to keep up with the Joneses, to fulfill our childhood vision of what our adulthood would be like, to broadcast our status to the world, and for a lot of other psychological reasons that have very little to do with how useful the product really is. How much stuff is in your basement or garage that you haven’t used in the past year?

The ultimate tool for corporations to sustain a culture of this sort is to develop the 40-hour workweek as the normal lifestyle. Under these working conditions people have to build a life in the evenings and on weekends. This arrangement makes us naturally more inclined to spend heavily on entertainment and conveniences because our free time is so scarce.

As technologies and methods advanced, workers in all industries became able to produce much more value in a shorter amount of time. You’d think this would lead to shorter workdays.
But the 8-hour workday is too profitable for big business, not because of the amount of work people get done in eight hours (the average office worker gets less than three hours of actual work done in 8 hours) but because it makes for such a purchase-happy public. Keeping free time scarce means people pay a lot more for convenience, gratification, and any other relief they can buy. It keeps them watching television, and its commercials. It keeps them unambitious outside of work.

All of America’s well-publicized problems, including obesity, depression, pollution and corruption are what it costs to create and sustain a trillion-dollar economy. For the economy to be “healthy”, America has to remain unhealthy. Healthy, happy people don’t feel like they need much they don’t already have, and that means they don’t buy a lot of junk, don’t need to be entertained as much, and they don’t end up watching a lot of commercials.

You may have heard of Parkinson’s Law. It is often used in reference to time usage: the more time you’ve been given to do something, the more time it will take you to do it. It’s amazing how much you can get done in twenty minutes if twenty minutes is all you have. But if you have all afternoon, it would probably take way longer.

Most of us treat our money this way. The more we make, the more we spend. It’s not that we suddenly need to buy more just because we make more, only that we can, so we do. In fact, it’s quite difficult for us to avoid increasing our standard of living (or at least our rate of spending) every time we get a raise.

They’ve been working for decades to create millions of ideal consumers, and they have succeeded. Unless you’re a real anomaly, your lifestyle has already been designed.

Your Lifestyle Has Already Been Designed

Well I'm in the working world again. I've found myself a well-paying gig in the engineering industry, and life finally feels like it's returning to normal after my nine months of traveling. Because I had been living quite a different lifestyle while I was away, this sudden transition to 9-to-5...

www.raptitude.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Oggi i mercati emergenti sono in controtendenza e confermano il trend positivo da inizio anno.

Real time index data search

Real time index data search for Global, Asia Pacific, EMEA, Americas, Factor

www.msci.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Mapped: Inflation Forecasts by Country in 2022

Where is inflation heading in 2022? In this graphic, we show inflation by country using IMF projections of average consumer prices.

advisor.visualcapitalist.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Io resto dell'avviso che ci sarà un raffreddamento dell' inflazione nei prossimi mesi. Non è una previsione, è una mia idea. Con gli asset che ho in portafoglio spero mi difenderò bene con una inflazione che comunque quest'anno resterà ben più alta rispetto alla media storica dell'ultimo decennio.

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Arcane Research: la capacità di crescita del Lightning Network si ferma a 3.400 BTC

A seguito di un forte incremento durante tutto il 2021, da tre mesi a questa parte la capacità del Lightning Network di Bitcoin è ferma a 3.400 BTC

it.cointelegraph.com

Per chi non conosce il sistema.

Cos'è e come funziona Lightning Network su bitcoin (BTC)

Lightning Network è un vero e proprio second layer appoggiato alla blockchain di bitcoin. Ecco quali sono i meccanismi di funzionamento.

cryptonomist.ch

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Il Lightning Network ha le potenzialità tecniche della scalabilità, dalla sua ha il basso costo di transazione, ma ci sono due aspetti da considerare: la volatilità del valore del bicoin per usarlo come moneta e la adoption molto esigua rispetto ai sistemi di pagamento tradizionali (circuiti Visa e Mastercard).

Bitcoin Still Unsuited for Mainstream Payments, Says Deutsche Bank

Legacy payment networks still win for mainstream payment uses, the investment bank wrote this week.

finance.yahoo.com

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Simpatica questa analogia.

Chocolate cake investor or broccoli investor — which one are you? | TEBI

The investment industry makes most of its money selling the finance equivalent of chocolate cake. Investors need to tame their cravings.

www.evidenceinvestor.com

Mi ci ritrovo...

- la mia parte broccoli mi ha portato a scegliere dei prodotti indicizzati a basso costo e a seguire un profilo di rischio bilanciato tra il mitigare il ruin risk e il saper cogliere le opportunità di rendimento;
- la mia parte golosa mi porta a verificare spesso il rendimento del portafoglio;
- le tasse e il turnover sono un po' broccoli e un pò dolce di cioccolato, a seconda delle circostanze

 

[portfolioafterlife]

Il problema del value factor è stato proprio questo.

Despite the existence of the value premium over the long term, there have been other periods when value underperformed, with the late 1990s setting the previous record for a value drawdown. Value drawdowns can happen either for fundamental reasons or if investors become overoptimistic about the expected growth rates of glamour stocks and/or too bearish about growth rates for value stocks. Either way, the result is a widening of the gap in their valuations. Investor sentiment and herd behaviour can extend the expansion of value spreads for periods longer than many investors have the patience for.

While prior research has found that valuation spreads for value stocks relative to their expensive peers tend to be correlated with the future value premium (for historically large value spreads, a larger value premium is more likely in the five years that follow), the use of value spreads as a tool to time the value premium is limited because it is impossible to know when value spreads will mean revert. Thus, forecasting the value premium over short horizons can go very wrong if value spreads continue to expand in the shorter term — markets can remain irrational longer than many investors can stay disciplined.

Il value spread è stato molto correlato nelle varie aree geografiche:

Si spera che stiano arrivando momenti più propizi...

According to AQR’s research, as of year-end 2021, their measure of valuation spreads for global value stocks were still at the 99th percentile of cheapness for the period beginning in 1994. In addition, and perhaps more importantly, they noted that “current value spreads imply that expensive companies will outgrow cheap companies by ~120% over the next 5-years,” which is “a rate that is 2-3x higher than ever realised in the past.” AQR also noted that if value stocks were to repeat their outperformance over the period 2000-03, they would outperform by 108 percentage points.

Value versus glamour stocks: a regime shift in the making? | TEBI

Are we seeing a regime shift, away from glamour stocks, towards value stocks? New research suggests we are, as Larry Swedroe explains.

www.evidenceinvestor.com