Journal to portfolio afterlife

Investors should spend approximately zero percent of their time adjusting their portfolios to the current geopolitical flareup. It’s a distraction to what really drives the stock market. The only thing that matters over the long term is earnings. Of course, interest rates matter and sentiment matters, and the pace of innovation matters, but they’re either inputs or outputs of earnings. Look at this chart and tell me I’m wrong.

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Credo di essere così.

Optimism as the default long-term forecast: Smart or oblivious?
I imagine a 2x2 grid in my head, with optimism vs pessimism along the X axis and evidence vs ideology along the Y axis. Some people are ideological and pessimistic. They’re doomers. Some people are ideologically optimistic. They’re boosters. Some people are evidence-based and pessimistic. They’re skeptics. But some people are both optimistic and evidence-based. That’s the sweet spot. Call it educated optimism, or the progress mindset, or the abundance mindset, or the improving mentality. Whatever it is, it’s where I want to be—and where I want my writing to push people.

 
In Europa il value sembra ancora molto cheap.

Taking a longer-term view, the valuation dispersion between growth and value remains at an all-time extreme level. We understand the reasons for the dispersion, which are related to the post-GFC regime (low growth, low yields, disinflation) and we have reason to believe that these have reached an inflection point. We believe there will be a mean reversion, and that a more inflationary regime such as the one we are entering into will be the trigger for this readjustment. Interestingly, despite the recent strong performance of value over growth, the former trades at a historically cheap level, close to two standard deviations below the long-term average trend, signalling that there is still room for a further recovery in this multi-year trend.

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An ugly divorce tends to generate arguments about virtually everything. But the difficulty of tracking and valuing cryptocurrency, a digital asset traded on a decentralized network, is creating new headaches. In many cases, divorce lawyers said, spouses underreport their holdings, or try to hide funds in online wallets that can be difficult to get into.

 
We believe it is generally a mistake to focus only on investments in one’s portfolio when developing an asset allocation strategy for that portfolio. Ignoring the value of non-risky non-financial assets like Social Security, pensions and life annuities can result in significantly understating the actual amount of investment risk a household may actually be taking.

 

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