By now, Putin has essentially written off its gas business with Germany. Either in four weeks or in 24 months, Russia knows that it will not sell energy to Berlin. So the Kremlin is forcing Scholz into some painful choices, with Putin turning some of the economic weapons deployed against his regime on his favor.
The Kremlin has told its European gas customers that if they want to continue receiving Russian gas, they have to pay for it via an account at Gazprombank, a state-controlled lender. The payment involves a two-step process with two accounts, one in euros, and one in rubles. The first step is a payment in euros; the second is its conversion into rubles for the client’s account. Only after that conversion, which technically touches the Russian central bank, is completed, the payment is considered fulfilled.
Germany – and France and Italy — never intended to impose an embargo on Russian gas now. The sanctions on the central bank were about stopping Putin accessing billions of dollars in hard-currency reserves, not about stopping gas payments. But Putin has turned the table: he’s using the EU sanctions now against them by forcing them to do business with the central bank in rubles.
If Berlin, Paris and Rome allow the payments to continue, they would be showing their own hypocrisy, opening a crack that would advance the Kremlin’s divide-and-conquer political strategy. They will also show that the EU is prepared to continue paying billions of euros each week to Russia, supporting the ruble -- and subsidizing his military — in the process.