Journal to portfolio afterlife

[black-opal]

Da leggere, ma con calma, per la solita lunghezza dei suoi articoli.

August 2023 Newsletter: Six AI Themes to Consider

August 23, 2023 Latest Articles: The Hidden Costs of Reshoring Now Available: Broken Money One of the big trends in markets throughout 2023 has been artificial intelligence, or AI. I tend to avoid jumping into crowded themes (sometimes to my benefit, sometimes to my detriment), so AI is not...

www.lynalden.com

 

[black-opal]

Un portatore sano di pessimismo

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696218858565271973

 

[black-opal]

Despite multi-layered international sanctions on Russia following its 24 February 2022 invasion of Ukraine, President Vladimir Putin’s ‘special energy project’ – developing the country’s massive gas and oil resources in the Arctic – took a major step forward last week as it was confirmed that the flagship Arctic LNG 2 will begin operations before the end of this year.

One reason why the Arctic is so important to Putin is the sheer size of its gas and oil reserves, much of them in Russian territory. According to various Russian authorities, the country’s Arctic sector comprises over 35,700 billion cubic metres (bcm) of natural gas and over 2,300 million metric tons of oil and condensate, the majority of which are in the Yamal and Gydan peninsulas, lying on the south side of the Kara Sea.

The key market into which much of this Arctic gas and oil output will flow will be China - the second reason why the region is so important to Putin.

The third reason why the Arctic LNG projects are so important to Putin is that LNG is the world’s emergency gas form, as was dramatically highlighted again most recently in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as also analysed in full in my new book on the new global oil market order. Unlike gas supplies delivered through pipelines, LNG does not require years of laying pipelines and building out corollary supportive infrastructure. It also does not require extensive, time-consuming negotiations over complex contracts. Instead, it can be picked up quickly in the spot market and shipped expeditiously to wherever it is required. With the world increasingly needing LNG supplies, given the spike in demand for them in Europe after flows from Russia’s gas pipelines stalled, Putin knows that increasing Russia’s own LNG supply capabilities has never been more geopolitically important to it.

As it now stands, according to comments from China National Offshore Oil Corporation (CNOOC) – which holds a 10 percent stake in the three-train 19.8 million metric tonnes per year (mt/y) Arctic LNG 2 project - the first 6.6 million mt/y train will start up before the end of this year.

Russia’s Answer To The U.S. Shale Boom Takes A Huge Step Forward | OilPrice.com

Russia's gas ambitions took a major step forward last week as it was confirmed that the flagship Arctic LNG 2 will begin operations before the end of this year.

oilprice.com

 

[black-opal]

I risultati di una crisi energetica annunciata... ma tanto abbiamo gli stoccaggi pieni al 92% di gas

The manufacturing crisis that’s plaguing the continent — industrial activity in Germany has contracted for 14 consecutive months — is the best antidote against a gas supply squeeze.

Europe is defeating its energy crisis thanks to the impact that said crisis has had on its industrial heartland. Across the continent, many energy-intensive companies have either closed or reduced production after not being able to cope with higher energy prices. The fertilizer, chemical, metallurgic, glass, paper and ceramic industries are particularly affected. All those shuttered factories don’t need gas or electricity now.

In Germany, activity among energy-intensive companies plunged in June by nearly 18% versus late 2020, according to official data. During the same month, industrial gas demand also declined 18% compared with a year ago. In July, gas demand posted an even deeper plunge, falling 22.9% from a year earlier, the largest decline so far in 2023.

The picture is similar across the rest of the continent.

Due to anemic manufacturing activity and lower-than-expected gas-burn in the electricity sector, Morgan Stanley reckons that total gas demand in Europe is running about 15% below the five-year average, even when adjusted by the impact of the weather.

European gas stocks are nearly 92% full — a record high for this time of the year. If the current injection pace continues, inventories would reach 100% by mid-September.

And yet, it would be of little solace for the continent’s industrialists. Currently, European gas prices are running at about €35 ($38) per megawatt hour, compared with the 2010-2020 average of just over €20. Wholesale electricity prices are running above €140 per megawatt hour, more than triple the 2010-2020 average of €38.5.

The supply-and-demand gas balance in Europe remains precarious. Only extremely weak industrial demand balances the system. Plentiful inventories help, but even with those, Europe wouldn’t make it through the winter if all the industrial gas demand returned to pre-crisis levels. As such, the price of avoiding the energy crisis is a deep recession in the manufacturing sector, and a long-term loss of economic growth. An analysis published by the International Monetary Fund last month says Germany is likely to lose just over 1% of potential output.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/energy/2023/08/29/europe-s-manufacturing-crisis-protects-against-gas-supply-crunch/6f961ffe-4623-11ee-b76b-0b6e5e92090d_story.html

 

[black-opal]

Questa trattativa ha scatenato la speculazione sui prezzi del gas.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696471677113082200

 

[black-opal]

Secondo il copione.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696418746309750908

 

[black-opal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696446891192361249

 

[black-opal]

Le energie fossili come il petrolio non servono.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696263467060380114

 

[black-opal]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696224529377284187

 

[black-opal]

Mi pare di buon auspicio

https://twitter.com/x/status/1696220601252188365