Da shilling le linee guida per uscire indenni dal rallentamento economico e mercato case depresso nel peggiore dei casi
Investment opportunities: What should you buy? Sell?
So where can you put your money in this increasingly unstable world? First, let’s check out the bad news. Five risky “sells.” Then we’ll look at Shilling’s recommendations: Five-plus “buys” extracted from his recent Insight newsletter and “The Age of Deleveraging,” opportunities for the 2012 recession and the slow-growth decade, 2011-2020.
1. Emerging nation stocks. Warning: Behind the smiles, American banks, brokers and financial advisers are running scared. They can’t find enough solid domestic companies, so they’re frantically chasing higher returns in risky, unstable emerging nations all across the planet. Sound familiar? Yes, this is an exact repeat of the build-up to the 2008 meltdown, when Wall Street chased subprime derivatives off a cliff. China’s the biggest risk out there, a new Humpty Dumpty headed for a great fall.
2. Sell commodities. This bubble’s blowing big, will pop. Commodities are not an asset class for your portfolio. They’re a gambler’s bet taking you off your game. In the coming years of weak demand, expect excessive capacity and soft prices. China is buying up long-term supplies across the world, playing games, speculating, living dangerously.
3. Sell U.S. major and regional banks. Regulation uncertainty. Taxes. Gridlock. Huge impact on capital. Vulnerable: Fannie, Freddie, regionals, community banks. In next four years bank portfolios have $800 billion more mortgages coming due, majority underwater.
4. Sell your house, second home or single families investment realty. Most families have the bulk of their net worth and retirement funds tied up in their home equity. That’ll hurt Americans as underwater mortgages increase from 23% to 40% of the national total. Shilling’s been warning of this for a long time: If you do plan to sell any time soon, do it now, before inventories depress prices another 20%.
5. Sell home builders. Our disastrous housing market says sell builders, sell, sell.
Now what should you buy? Shilling highlights several key areas of investment opportunity to counterbalance the risks and insanity driving the above sell suggestions:
6. Income-producing stocks. The stock market’s gone nowhere for 12 years, says Shilling. Inflation-adjusted returns say Wall Street’s a loser. Buy direct or ETFs. Pick selective income-producers: utilities, drugs, telecoms, high-grade munis, preferreds.
7. Treasury bonds. America is the long-term winner. Yes, banks, brokers and stockholders may hate them. But this is your safe haven in the coming deflationary storm. Long maturities. Zero-coupons. Lower commissions. Trust in America.
8. The American dollar. The American dollar is as good as gold in a vast sea of risky black-swan currencies, and that includes China’s yuan. Have faith, the almighty dollar will continue strong. Bet on ETFs, futures, the index.
9. Rental apartments. The American dream of homeownership is a nightmare thanks to a depressed housing market. REITs are overpriced. Rental properties are looking real attractive.
10. North American energy. America has a new national policy: Reduce dependency on foreign oil. And since there’s never enough, the future for American energy is bright.
Want more? Read Shilling’s “The Age of Deleveraging.” He has detailed lists of buys and sells in many sectors: Health care’s 16% of GDP. Going up. Medical office buildings solid. Food and other consumer staples. You gotta eat, wash clothes. Also small luxuries that folks indulge no matter what. And more. Check out his book:
