solointraday
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FTSE Mib Futures solointraday - Cap. 3
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gipa69
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The Fed launched an aggressive stimulus programme whereby it is going to buy USD 40 million of mortgage debt every month and continue to purchase assets to improve the sluggish market.
However, Russell Napier, Strategist at CLSA does not expect a major rally in global markets after the Fed announced its stimulus programme. According to him, it is only one part of what is going on around the world. It is also important to take into account what is happening in the emerging markets of China and Japan.
Napier further added that it is necessary to see whether QE3 concentrates on money or credit. If it focuses only on money, it will be a short term impact, he explained.
Here is the edited transcript of the interview on CNBC-TV18.
Q: Do you expect a major rally in global asset classes, global equities after what you heard from the US Fed?
A: No, I don't. The US Fed is one part of what's going on in the world and obviously in the very short-term it's what gets the headline and gets people excited. But ultimately something else is going very wrong in the world which is China. Ben Bernanke controls basically US dollar money supply and that***8217;s 18% of the total.
China is now 23% of total global money supply, Japan is 28%. So of course it grants the headlines and of course people get excited. But, ultimately things are going wrong in China. When we have trouble, China has produced 40% of all the growth and global money supply in the last five years. Bernanke is going to produce 15%, so the jury is out on what the impact of this can be on America when things are going so wrong in China.
Q: How do you see liquidity pan out for the rest of the year and what shape do you think equity markets will take towards the end of the year?
A: In terms of liquidity there are two definitions, one is money and one is credit and this is an effort to create money. But, this has been the problem of quantitative easing, it hasn't really produced credit. So the impact of it would have been relatively short-term. This particular form of QE at this particular stage has more chance of producing a credit recovery than the previous two because what we have to remember is this one is coming at a time when broad money and credit are already expanding in the US economy.
The last two were done when it was contracting. The way we get a good handle on this is actually going to seep through to credit this time. That means more than just liquidity is getting real and tangible in the economy. By looking at the credit data, every Friday you will get the residential landing data from the states. We have to watch that and if this form of QE begins to affect that then this is just more than liquidity, it's fundamentally getting through to the economy.
But the safest thing to do is to watch for credit. If it isn't credit and just money, it will be a short-term impact, not a medium or long-term impact.
However, Russell Napier, Strategist at CLSA does not expect a major rally in global markets after the Fed announced its stimulus programme. According to him, it is only one part of what is going on around the world. It is also important to take into account what is happening in the emerging markets of China and Japan.
Napier further added that it is necessary to see whether QE3 concentrates on money or credit. If it focuses only on money, it will be a short term impact, he explained.
Here is the edited transcript of the interview on CNBC-TV18.
Q: Do you expect a major rally in global asset classes, global equities after what you heard from the US Fed?
A: No, I don't. The US Fed is one part of what's going on in the world and obviously in the very short-term it's what gets the headline and gets people excited. But ultimately something else is going very wrong in the world which is China. Ben Bernanke controls basically US dollar money supply and that***8217;s 18% of the total.
China is now 23% of total global money supply, Japan is 28%. So of course it grants the headlines and of course people get excited. But, ultimately things are going wrong in China. When we have trouble, China has produced 40% of all the growth and global money supply in the last five years. Bernanke is going to produce 15%, so the jury is out on what the impact of this can be on America when things are going so wrong in China.
Q: How do you see liquidity pan out for the rest of the year and what shape do you think equity markets will take towards the end of the year?
A: In terms of liquidity there are two definitions, one is money and one is credit and this is an effort to create money. But, this has been the problem of quantitative easing, it hasn't really produced credit. So the impact of it would have been relatively short-term. This particular form of QE at this particular stage has more chance of producing a credit recovery than the previous two because what we have to remember is this one is coming at a time when broad money and credit are already expanding in the US economy.
The last two were done when it was contracting. The way we get a good handle on this is actually going to seep through to credit this time. That means more than just liquidity is getting real and tangible in the economy. By looking at the credit data, every Friday you will get the residential landing data from the states. We have to watch that and if this form of QE begins to affect that then this is just more than liquidity, it's fundamentally getting through to the economy.
But the safest thing to do is to watch for credit. If it isn't credit and just money, it will be a short-term impact, not a medium or long-term impact.
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freesurfer
araldo spaziale
buongiornO a tutti:
aggiorno la mia view su ucg:
soprattutto venerdì avevamo segnalato il fatto che non fosse riuscita a fare nuovo max e che dopo una bearish eg sporca avva realizato una dark cloud cover..........
e che quindi ci si aspettava una discesa sul brevissimo
stamani ha già raggiunto la prima mm di riferimento che sicuramente vale da supporto
ma indicherebbe un rifiatamento molto leggero............
valore indicativo rimane l area indicata dal 50% di fibo del movimento dal minimo del 31 al max del 12.................sotto poi c è il supporto importante dell altra mm.
aggiorno la mia view su ucg:
soprattutto venerdì avevamo segnalato il fatto che non fosse riuscita a fare nuovo max e che dopo una bearish eg sporca avva realizato una dark cloud cover..........
e che quindi ci si aspettava una discesa sul brevissimo
stamani ha già raggiunto la prima mm di riferimento che sicuramente vale da supporto
ma indicherebbe un rifiatamento molto leggero............
valore indicativo rimane l area indicata dal 50% di fibo del movimento dal minimo del 31 al max del 12.................sotto poi c è il supporto importante dell altra mm.
Allegati
freesurfer
araldo spaziale
fituso indice:
sul fituso venerdì aspettavo il max in divergenza sotot la tl tirata su rsi
che poi è arrivato..........per questo e altri motivi
ho scritto che sul brevissimo avrei tentato lo short.
c è da dire che per ora rimane anche sul brevissimo fortissimo ( sul breve ho scritto che prima di smettere il long ce ne vuole) , io mi aspettavo un ritorno almeno sotto i 16000...............vedem le prossime candele..............azzo almeno 16250-200
li ritraccierà............
sul fituso venerdì aspettavo il max in divergenza sotot la tl tirata su rsi
che poi è arrivato..........per questo e altri motivi
ho scritto che sul brevissimo avrei tentato lo short.
c è da dire che per ora rimane anche sul brevissimo fortissimo ( sul breve ho scritto che prima di smettere il long ce ne vuole) , io mi aspettavo un ritorno almeno sotto i 16000...............vedem le prossime candele..............azzo almeno 16250-200
li ritraccierà............
Allegati
freesurfer
araldo spaziale
si................
ad essere long!!!!!
che è successo??................mika ci sono stati casini nel week con superbannamenti??............non ho letto indietro.
Jedd
GORDON GEKKO
si................
ad essere long!!!!!
che è successo??................mika ci sono stati casini nel week con superbannamenti??............non ho letto indietro.
Ma no assolutamente non mi pare proprio... Non capisco :-(
freesurfer
araldo spaziale
forse sono tutti in religioso silenzio
poichè si scende!!!!!!!!
scaramanticamente rimangono silenziosi!!!
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