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oggi ho venduto axa XS0188935174 a 73 e acquistato bawag 8,765% a 69,45.

Ho scelto questa bawag perchè mi interessa molto la cedola post call. L'altra essendo sempre a tasso fisso espone ad un rialzo tassi futuro

ciao

Fidw quando si parla di ciofeche che rendono oltre il 10%, i tassi contano relativamente, il principale driver della performance e' lo spread.
A partita' di cedola e prezzo avrei preso anche io la variabile pero' il divario tra 5.3% e 7.125% e' tanto...l'euribor a 3M deve quadruplicare per andare in pari con la cedola, non penso che succedera' nei prox due anni
 
Greek Banks’ ‘Challenging’ Profitability May Trigger Cut at S&P

By Niklas Magnusson



March 19 (Bloomberg) -- Profitability at Greece’s largest banks may be “challenging” in coming years as the country’s economy deteriorates, which may trigger a cut of the lenders’ credit ratings, Standard & Poor’s said.

National Bank of Greece SA, the nation’s biggest lender, reported a net loss of 87 million euros ($118 million) in the three months through December as provisions for bad loans soared amid a 2.5 percent slump in gross domestic product. EFG Eurobank Ergasias SA said net income in the period slid 77 percent from the previous quarter, while Alpha Bank SA had its lowest profit in a year and Piraeus Bank SA reported a loss.

We’re looking at a pretty negative economic environment for the next couple of years, with a sharper recession in 2010 and still negative GDP growth in 2011,” Angela Cruz, a director at S&P’s financial institutions team in Madrid, said by phone yesterday. “We expect a protracted recovery thereafter with below-potential growth, which is a very different scenario to what the Greek banks have been used to in the previous decade.”

Earnings at Greek banks may suffer as government measures aimed at slashing a fiscal deficit that reached 12.7 percent of GDP in 2009 curb loan demand and drive up defaults. S&P on March 16 cut its view of the strength of Greece’s banking system to 5 from 4 on a scale of 1 to 10, where 1 is the highest mark. That put Greece on par with countries such as Bahrain, Brazil, Kuwait, Oman and South Africa.

‘Higher Credit Costs’

“We expect funding costs to remain higher than in the past,” Cruz said. “It may coincide in time with a part of the cycle where banks are going through low growth and low business volumes, and higher credit costs because the credit cycle is not yet finished, and such a combination of pressure from different sides could present challenges for profitability in our view.”

Greek banks won’t have trouble raising funds this year amid slower loan growth, Cristina Torrella, a director at the financial institutions team at Fitch Ratings in Spain, said in a March 16 interview. Fitch on Feb. 23 reduced the long-term issuer default ratings of Eurobank, National Bank, Alpha and Piraeus one step to BBB from BBB+, with a negative outlook.

S&P on Dec. 17 cut its long-term credit ratings on Eurobank and Alpha one step to BBB, the second-lowest investment grade rating, from BBB+. The firm has a BBB+ recommendation on National Bank, and a BBB rating on Piraeus, as well as a short- term rating of A-2 on all four lenders. The outlook for all the ratings is negative.

Loan-Loss Provisions

If credit losses were to exceed our expectations and rise more meaningfully than what we currently anticipate, or if there is a combination with a scenario where we see more pressure on profitability than what we have anticipated, we may lower our ratings,” Cruz said. Any significantly eroded earnings generation may also trigger downgrades, she added.

Loan-loss provisions at National Bank of 323 million euros in the fourth quarter exceeded the average analyst estimate of 277 million euros in a Bloomberg News survey. Impairment losses at Alpha Bank’s Greek operations swelled 28 percent to 513.6 million euros last year. At Eurobank, 2009 loan losses in Greece totaled 725 million euros.

To contact the reporter on this story: Niklas Magnusson in Stockholm at [email protected]
Last Updated: March 19, 2010 04:08 EDT
 
La cosa che mi intriga in questa OWAG e' la cedola al 10% fino alla call 2018, i volumi enormi in acquisto negli ultimi giorni oltre 200.000. vedi grafico.

Inoltre' nonostante sia una "distressed" non e ' mai scesa sotto 40% che e' un supporto non male per la "spazzatura".

Altre P. di cui parliamo hanno quotato 10%/20%, non dico che sia un acquisto ma potrebbe riservare delle sorprese.
 

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10% to first call date of June 2018, then 6 month EURIBOR + 632 bps

Not cumulative, Tier-1.

On July 24 is the rating of A3 by Moody's lowered to Caa2 the following Commentary:

DOWNGRADE OF HYBRID INSTRUMENTS REFLECTS INCREASED RISK OF COUPON losses

1) Moody's downgraded VBAG's capital participation certificates to Caa2
from A3 and the non-cumulative preferred securities issued by OeVAG
Finance (Jersey) Ltd to Caa2 from A2. The Reflecting the rating downgrade
agency's expectation of a high likelihood that coupons will not be paid
for 2009 and 2010 and a moderate likelihood of a non-payment due for 2011
to a breach of the distributable profit trigger. Moody's believes that
VBAG's reserves are not sufficient to comp sate for losses in coming
years. Coupon payments on the instruments are non-cumulative. With regard
participation certificates to the capital, the Unpaid Remuneration
Settlement Mechanism (URSM) would allow the bank to pay deferred coupons
through the issuance of common shares or other equity-like securities for
up to five years. However, since they are subject to the availability of
sufficient distributable profits, Moody's does not expect such payment
 
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