Ho incominciato la corrispondenza epistolare con l'IR di Oevag. Vi riporto quanto mi ha scritto.
Prima risposta alle mie domande, con cui io chiedevo conferme sulla PR di dicembre e se fossero possibili i pagamenti dei coupon delle P già dal 2011 (con riferimento agli utili 2010):
Volksbank AG - Clean sweep in 2009 ? turnaround in 2010
The statements made in December are still valid. The fourth quarter 2009 was indeed better operationally than the third quarter. However, the Group made still a loss in the fourth quarter 2009 as well and as a result will realize a substantial loss for the full year 2009. Capital Ratios at year end will be comfortable, the pro forma ratios are 12% in total equity and 10% core capital. Full year results will be published on the 21st of April 2010.
The first two months 2010 are encouraging and we still anticipate a turnaround this year with a profitable result for the Group. Since profit related instruments are paid on the basis of the single entity result for VBAG, the Group result however is not the relevant one. The single entity result is heavily influenced by higher liquidity costs and risk provisions at Investkredit Bank AG (with which there is a profit and loss sharing agreement). Due to the uncertain outlook for the corporate sector and weak economic performance we have doubts that we will achieve sufficient profits (if any) on the single entity level in order to pay dividends on our profit related instruments.
Seconda risposta, con cui mi chiarisce che probabilmente non pagheranno le cedole nel 2011 (con riferimento agli utili 2010), salvo operazioni straordinarie o sostenuta ripresa economica.
The outcome will, to a large extent, depend on the economic development. If the business year 2010 continues as it does currently, a profit on the single entity basis could be possible but this would only be if all optimistic assumptions materialise. Even then it is not clear if we would have sufficient profits to make full distributions on all instruments. If we enter into another recession, things will look different. We hope to be able to give a better guidance in August when the half year results are published.
The current assumptions are, that we have the worst behind us. I am afraid I can not give you any guideance on 2011--this would really be looking in the crystal ball. The results this and next year may also be affected by strategic decisions to divest of certain parts of the group, or any strategic partnership entered into.
