Erste Group: CEE Macro/Fixed Income Daily
Analysts’ views:
CZ Public Finances: - The Czech Labour Ministry said that VAT rates should be unified (i.e., the lowest rate lifted to 20%) as of 2012 while the pension reform won't be launched until 2013. This shows some half-heartedness regarding reform and the tax estimates issued seem to be erroneous. The total increase in VAT receipts estimated by the Labour Ministry amounted to CZK 58 bn but total VAT receipts are around 170 bn and only a sixth of the basket is taxed at the lowest rate, implying an increase of 30 bn – double current revenues!. We expect long end benchmark yields to move up slightly.
PL Rates: Rate setter Glapinski, of hawkish leanings, stated yesterday that he wouldn't support another hike today adding that most of the recent spike in prices is because of external factors, that so far no second-round effects are visible and that GDP growth remains weak. FRAs are overly bullish, in our view, pricing in 3 more hikes as early as 6 months out. We think only two hikes will be delivered by year-end, the first in 2Q/11, the second in 4Q/11.
Traders’ comments: RON: The short end remains under upward pressure and the RON continues to appreciate with the cross currency curve flattening. HUF: Sideways. PLN: Bonds are range-bound whilst PLN weakens against EUR ahead of the rates decision. 2y IRS are at the highest level since November 2008 and the 2y10y IRS curve is bouncing along support levels forming around the low of September 2010. A short relief rally may be on the cards if rates are increased as is broadly expected. HRK: Croatian bonds are following bund prices up as the flight to safety continues. CEE CDS: Hawkish comments from the ECB has put pressure on the short end in the Eurozone whilst the long end profits from the tension in Libya and the commensurate weakness in equities. CEE CDS managed to recover after initially gapping wider in yesterdays’ session but closed the day a little wider. There is still a cash bid in CEE corporates but turnover is receding. The notable underperformer in CDS was Poland.