Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 1

[Zorba]

Depfa plc HRE/Depfa plc XS0303478118, XS0178243332, DE000A0E5U85 and XS0291655727: See my last post. They look priced ok.

BayernLB XS0290135358: Will not pay in the coming years due to huge losses in 2009. BayernLB still a healthy bank after state-aid earlier this year. => buy under 40 and wait for coupons in later years.

WestLB 6%€ DE000A0D2FH1 and 8%-$ XS0216711340 still one of my favorite investment. Bad-Bank will help balance-sheet. With the 8% coupon the $-hybrid looks much more attractive at current prices. Some of my investment will be long-term, some I will sell if prices reach 50 and 60 in the month/ years to come, which I am sure of. I would like to play the $-long and the €-hybrid short but unfortunately I am not able to do this. Is any of you shorting perps?

Never looked into NIBC. Tell me more!

Greeting, Dante, turning 30 years today....

Happy birthday Dante!

 

[bosmeld]

Dpb DE000A0D24Z1 sale

allora ragazzi eccoci qua.


Fatte un po di operazioni.


vendute le ultime Ing 127 a 61

comprato ancora Alpha 51,5-54 (con alpha mi fermo qui, sono ora l'1,5% del mio ptf)
comprato ancora Erste 47-48
compata Ikb XS0194701487 11,5-12 (pura speculazione)


poi un po di quotazioni:

Abn amro XS0246487457 58,5-60,5
Dpb DE000A0D24Z1 56-57,5 (avevo detto che avevo la sentazione che dpb saliva prima di Ba, dovevo prendere tutte Dpb a 53,5 era un prezzono)

Depfa DE000A0E5U85 13,5-16,5
Depfa XS0178243332 20,5-23,5 (sto pensando se liquidare...)

Nibc XS0210781828 34 denaro , no lettera.
Aegon usd: NL0000116168 56-58

 

[DanteAllemis]

Caro Dante
Thank you for your suggestions, I am glad and would like to exchange with you and the forums useful investing ideas and strategies.
I prefer to answer you here, so that the other forumers can see, check, and add at what i suggest you.

The general opinions of our forum is that interest rates are at an historical low in the EU and in the US.
This happened as you know due to the enormous liquidity provided by the central banks for stimulus plans for the economy, and banking bailouts.
We reasonably expect that in the medium term the FED and the ECB will mop up this flood of cheap money and finally raise the interest rate on the both sides of the atlantic .

Believing (and hoping) that this scenario will prove right in the foreseeble future, (Japan suggest not) it consequently make sense for an investor to take positions on perpetuals structured on variable interest rate like the IRS 10 years and similar.
This kind of perpetual emissions still trade at relatively low prices, compared to their peers on fixed rates.

Caro max, you are right, interest are historically low. But in my opinion this will stay for quite some time to come, as there is too much slack in the economy and too much unemployment. Also capacity utilisation is a reason why inflation risk remain low for the foreseeable future. I expect now rate hikes in 2010.

You are right, interest are historically low. But in my opinion this will stay for quite some time to come. I expect now rate hikes in 2010.

Is interesting to consider that senior bond with the same structure are already at a much higher quotation.

They are always due to their higher rank. Or are you speaking relatively?
So we have to speak about the ratios of senior yields eg. (10yrs+25bps)/4,5%fix relatively to the ratios of hybrid yield (to call or to perp) of the same coupon structures. Can you give me an example?

The strategy targets are:

Protection and increase of the capital invested as the interest rates grow, reaching par if the situation stabilize.

Increasing of coupons of cash flow for whom is interested in a future rendite

Possibility of strong capital appreciation (as happened in this days,) and possible trading from emissions with better grade that exhausted their potential, to less known and more riscky emissions with low grade but possible potential of appreciation.

And this concept go "pari passu" with your strategy of buying perpetuals of battered banks like you listed in the previous post.

Some of the perpetuals that match this criteria are 4 austrian emissions:

Bank of Austria
DE000A0DYW70
DE000A0DD4K8
Two or our favourites controlled
by Unicredito with imminent recapitalization from the mother.

ERSTE FINANCE
ISIN XS0188305741

RZB FINANCE
ISIN XS0193631040
Important austrian banks with critical exposure to the eastern countries.

I am cautious with austrian banks. One reason are the risks from their eastern-europe-exposure. Second, they have a much less attractive Bad-Bank law that allows hybrids to be taken into the bad-bank partly. That has just happened with Kommunalkredit hybrid. Third, for example the Oevags have a loss participation.
But of course BA-CA looks ok due to Unicredit standing behind it.

AXA
XS0210434782
XS0207825364
Not so cheap anymore

Those I like and have invested in.

BOI cumulative
XS0213178295
Handle with care

CNP Important french insurer good rating and relatively "safe"
FR0010167247
FR0010093328 cumulative

Tell me more, please.

Alpha Group (greek bank) has paid all the coupons till now
DE000A0DX3M2

Without any further insight: Would not touch greek banks as they might have huge problems with greek gov debt.

AEGON all cumulative
NL0000116150
NL0000120889
NL0000121416
NL0000120004
NL0000116168 $

ABN AMRO controlled by the dutch state one of our favourite
XS0246487457

ING cumulative
NL0000116127
NL0000113587

DPB
DE000A0DEN75

Those I like and have invested in some.

RABO not cheap but AAA 8%rendite
XS0214155458
XS0217518397

I like these very much. I wrote to Rabo IR to get notice on if they plan a call....

BPVN (XS0304963290 and XS0304963373), has the some structure of the DPB (XS0307741917) 50K minimun lot
it trade at a discount to the DPB
BPVN is the most risky italian bank but nothing to really worry.

You find many other with the same structure that you may know on our Excel file on page 1 you just need to sort: column L cedola post call.

I hope the other forumers will add other suggestions for you, unfortunately we are at the end of the really good opportunities.

If you have questions dont hesitate to contact me via PM or in the forum. Beyond the perpetuals there are other situations going on for istance the greek bonds.

Ciao Max

Thanks a lot for your investment perspective and the whole lot of your suggestions, some of which where new to me!
I will continue to seek fixed-coupon hybrids for the next month to come and will switch if rate-hikes seem more likely.

Greetings!

 

[bosmeld]

I would be cautious with buying more. HRE at 34 money is priced ok for a non-loss-absorbing-pref. sec. with a 5,86 coupon that will not pay for at least 2 years. True, the bad bank is very good for HRE. But that was the reason for the rise from 11-17 early this year and from 17-22 in November/ December. With prices now from 22-34 in just one week this movement has got to stop. Big offers at 40 coming. I sold my last HRE prefs at 25, 29 and 32.

Depfa plc. is a whole different story. It is at all not clear weather they will pay ever again. It depends on the bad-bank and the plans for Depfa plc. Some think that Depfa will be winded-down in the years to come with no profits or coupons to hybrids. Highly speculative, more like an option on a stock. I sold my Depfa for some quick grands because there are plenty of attraktive and speculative hybrids that certainly carry value going forward.

Conclusion: The gains with HRE are over. Depfa is like a lottery, which is not my business.

happy birtday Dante

thank you for your suggestion

I have some Depfa XS0178243332 at 9,14. maybe i have to sell some of them.


p.s What do you think about Ikb?

 

[Vet]

happy birtday Dante

thank you for your suggestion

I have some Depfa XS0178243332 at 9,14. maybe i have to sell some of them.


Ciao BosKAM...venduto ieri DEPFA 332.. a 20.5% con mia grossa sorpresa mi hanno accreditato il rateo...........però adesso cosa succede con questo ti

 

[bosmeld]

Depfa XS0178243332

happy birtday Dante

thank you for your suggestion

I have some Depfa XS0178243332 at 9,14. maybe i have to sell some of them.


Ciao BosKAM...venduto ieri DEPFA 332.. a 20.5% con mia grossa sorpresa mi hanno accreditato il rateo...........però adesso cosa succede con questo ti

non so che fare, certo è che il gain è interessante, peraltro se cìè anche il rateo la cosa è comica.

stavo pensando di vendere tutto e mantenere 10k tanto per partecipare.

ma sono molto indeciso. perchè Dante ha ragione, depfa è una lotteria.

ma a me le lotterie sono sempre piacute. e poi c'è il rischio che se chiuderanno anno in attivo pagheranno...
anche se è solo una mia idea. peraltro è da parecchio che non seguo con attenzione depfa.

come scommesa ho comprato queste Ikb XS0194701487 a 12. forse le depfa le dovrei fare fuori. meglio non esagerare con le scommesse.

 

[Topgun1976]

giuro che non ci siamo messi d'accordo pero' credo di aver fatto una boiata pazzesca.
Ho preso la NL0000117224 ma c'e' la NL0000168714 che quota poco piu' alta ma ha call nel 2012 invece che 2015 ed anche tasso post call piu' alto.( e pure la cedola del 6% invece che 5,125)
Forse danno per scontato che non venga richiamata nel 2012?
I prospetti mi sembrano identici..domani chiedo il prezzo della 714 finale
Tu cosa hai preso?

Io ho preso la 6% pensavo anche te...

 

[Zorba]

Dpb DE000A0D24Z1 56-57,5 (avevo detto che avevo la sentazione che dpb saliva prima di Ba, dovevo prendere tutte Dpb a 53,5 era un prezzono)

Avevi ragione te Dai, però BA è poco sotto

 

[saverio1973]

non so che fare, certo è che il gain è interessante, peraltro se cìè anche il rateo la cosa è comica.

stavo pensando di vendere tutto e mantenere 10k tanto per partecipare.

ma sono molto indeciso. perchè Dante ha ragione, depfa è una lotteria.

ma a me le lotterie sono sempre piacute. e poi c'è il rischio che se chiuderanno anno in attivo pagheranno...
anche se è solo una mia idea. peraltro è da parecchio che non seguo con attenzione depfa.

come scommesa ho comprato queste Ikb XS0194701487 a 12. forse le depfa le dovrei fare fuori. meglio non esagerare con le scommesse.

Ragazzi è un piacere leggervi. Grandi gain, complimenti.
PEr il momento sto studiando ed imparando qualcosa sui perpetuals. Spero di entrare presto.

 

[Vet]

non so che fare, certo è che il gain è interessante, peraltro se cìè anche il rateo la cosa è comica.

stavo pensando di vendere tutto e mantenere 10k tanto per partecipare.

ma sono molto indeciso. perchè Dante ha ragione, depfa è una lotteria.

ma a me le lotterie sono sempre piacute. e poi c'è il rischio che se chiuderanno anno in attivo pagheranno...
anche se è solo una mia idea. peraltro è da parecchio che non seguo con attenzione depfa.

come scommesa ho comprato queste Ikb XS0194701487 a 12. forse le depfa le dovrei fare fuori. meglio non esagerare con le scommesse.

SAI dirmi qualcosa su uesta IKB 487...rateo...ecc...grazie