Grazie Zorba, molto utile lo specchietto riepilogativo di Moody's.
Alcuni passaggi interessanti:
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This also reflects our view that in a restructuring scenario, where burden sharing would be imposed on the Group’s creditors, there would be minimal differentiation between the treatment of the bank’s issued subordinated debt and those issued by the holding company. We also expect that the holders of hybrids issued by the bank and the holding company would be treated in a very similar way. Burden- sharing could be imposed through a coupon skip, debt exchanges or principal write-downs (which would require a change in the terms and conditions of the notes, as allowed by the terms of some of the securities; see Exhibit 3).
-Optional coupon skip: la 155 e' (secondo Moody's) piu' a rischio skip della 523. La 482 non puo' skippare, ma il pagamento sulla 482 fa da coupon pusher alla 523.
At the SNS Bank level, the risk on the most junior instrument (XS0468954523) is currently partly mitigated by a dividend pusher on parity securities, including the other hybrid instrument (XS0172565482):
ne deduco che, fintantoche' e' in vita la 482, la 523 non puo' skippare (sempre nell'ambito dell'Optional coupon skip).
-Mandatory coupon skip:la 155 e la 523 hanno lo stesso meccanismo di skip per regulatory intervention, ma Moody's considera l'innesco piu' probabile sulla 155 che sulla 523.
Most hybrids include a mandatory coupon skip if (1) the issuer becomes insolvent; or (2) the issuer is unable to meet minimum regulatory requirements. We view this as a “weak trigger”, with a low likelihood of occurrence for any of SNS REAAL’s entities. One of SNS Bank’s hybrids includes a mandatory coupon-skip mechanism, if the bank has no distributable items. The other SNS Bank hybrid also includes a mandatory trigger in case of regulatory intervention, which could, in our opinion, occur before a breach of the minimum regulatory capital requirements.
SNS REAAL’s hybrid also has a trigger based on regulatory intervention, but we consider that the risk of such intervention is higher at the bank level.
-Cumulative coupon skip: come sappiamo, la 482 e la 523 sono non cum, mentre la 155 e' cum con ACSM. Stante la situazione attuale di SNS, l'ACSM per me vale zero.
If coupons are deferred on the hybrid issued by the holding SNS REAAL, the company would have to issue shares and use the proceeds of the shares to pay noteholders (ACSM).
However, there is a limit to the amount of shares that the Group can issue, and if deferred coupons have not been settled after five years, noteholders would lose those coupon amounts.
-Variation clause: sia la 523 sia la 155 prevedono clausole per cui possono essere modificate le condizioni, a patto che non sia peggiorativo per l'obbligazionista. Moody's ritiene meno probabile l'innesco di questa clausola sulla 155. IMHO, questa clausola NON PUO' essere innescata per fare burden sharing sulla 523.
Disclaimer: ho il 2% del capitale sulla 523 a 70.44 pmc e sono liquido al 90%; dovessi assorbire il 100% delle perdite, non mi cambierebbe niente.
