Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 2
- Creatore Discussione caligola2005
- Data di Inizio
- Stato
Joe Silver
Forumer storico
Va bene l'Olanda che è scesa per l'affaire SNS, ma sono assia deboli anche i bonds tedeschi : calo sensibile di Heidelberg Cement (senior) e delle sub COBA.
Wallygo
Forumer storico
c è anche su FOX BUSINESS
SNS Reaal Has Found Private Investors for Capital Boost-Report | Fox Business
SNS Reaal Has Found Private Investors for Capital Boost-Report | Fox Business
Marco1974
Nec spe nec metu
Opinione non mia.....
Del resto credo che sia più interessante ascoltare cosa hanno da dire questi personaggi/analisti che qualche fanfarone che sputa sentenze a destra e sinistra con scarsa cognizione di causa e poca competenza, magari perchè ha letto 2 numeri su un foglio....
E' solo un invito a pesare da chi arrivano le varie considerazioni e a quale è il suo background.
Saluti.
From: TOM JENKINS (JEFFERIES INTERNATIO)
At: Jan 30 2013 15:45:26
Just please be careful... these moves are only on a TV news story as far as i can see. Better buyers, if not quite bid only, though it did gpo bid only for a short while about 20mins ago. Stock's up 18%.
"ING, ABN, Rabobank May Add EU400m, to SNS Rescue, RTL-Z Reports", this is the latest story which seems to be gathering some traction.
From what i hear, latest plan could be that ABN, ING, Rabo and van Lanschot (and maybe some others) inject the EUR500m into an SPV to circumvent which will basically be the bad bank, and is intended to obviate the EC ban on direct aid.
SNS would then need EUR1.5bn from external investors. If it can get that then it might remove the need for full nationalisation - though issues remain around maintaining the Stichting Beheer ownership levels or not overtly diluting only EUR240m mkt cap, and also who the heck would want this pooch of an equity?
Additionally, it still needs to pay off the EUR900+m of existing state preferreds, so the plan now seems to be to convert the outstanding this into equity, which would still result in the state taking around a 40% stake in the group based on current mkt cap.
If a minority state stake does happen then we are still threatened with heavy burden-sharing (albeit voluntary), but i don't think it would result in any kind of coercive burden-sharing. On the other hand, if the state just accepts some terming out of the repayment of existing aid, and lord knows we have precedent for that, then we might not see the state taking a stake at all, and we could be talking coupon/call ban.
Two questions i have with this are: 1) will the EC allow this kind of SPV bailout structure for the bad bank, it sounds very sneaky; and 2) what happens to the group structure vis a vis Groep, bank and Insurance, especially if insurance is sold and any state equity stake grows as a result?
On the other hand, if, just if, this is a positive news story and if, just if it's a purely private solution, could the Dutch and SNS tell Darth Aluminia to go and stick his light sabre right up his evil death star? - after all the Dutch do wear big boy pants at the European table. Even if not, given the quantum (quite small to be honest) and still likely pro-EC break-up plan of bank and insurance it could be that just a short-term call/cpn ban is imposed.... in which case one should BUY the heck out of the bonds.
Massive massive caution required still. This sounds positive but as one client noted sagaciously: "the devil is in the detail and this is still a pig" and that made me think about the Gadarene swine. Beware yet of cliffs.
All counters and thoughts welcome as ever
ta
tom
Del resto credo che sia più interessante ascoltare cosa hanno da dire questi personaggi/analisti che qualche fanfarone che sputa sentenze a destra e sinistra con scarsa cognizione di causa e poca competenza, magari perchè ha letto 2 numeri su un foglio....
E' solo un invito a pesare da chi arrivano le varie considerazioni e a quale è il suo background.
Saluti.
From: TOM JENKINS (JEFFERIES INTERNATIO)
At: Jan 30 2013 15:45:26
Just please be careful... these moves are only on a TV news story as far as i can see. Better buyers, if not quite bid only, though it did gpo bid only for a short while about 20mins ago. Stock's up 18%.
"ING, ABN, Rabobank May Add EU400m, to SNS Rescue, RTL-Z Reports", this is the latest story which seems to be gathering some traction.
From what i hear, latest plan could be that ABN, ING, Rabo and van Lanschot (and maybe some others) inject the EUR500m into an SPV to circumvent which will basically be the bad bank, and is intended to obviate the EC ban on direct aid.
SNS would then need EUR1.5bn from external investors. If it can get that then it might remove the need for full nationalisation - though issues remain around maintaining the Stichting Beheer ownership levels or not overtly diluting only EUR240m mkt cap, and also who the heck would want this pooch of an equity?
Additionally, it still needs to pay off the EUR900+m of existing state preferreds, so the plan now seems to be to convert the outstanding this into equity, which would still result in the state taking around a 40% stake in the group based on current mkt cap.
If a minority state stake does happen then we are still threatened with heavy burden-sharing (albeit voluntary), but i don't think it would result in any kind of coercive burden-sharing. On the other hand, if the state just accepts some terming out of the repayment of existing aid, and lord knows we have precedent for that, then we might not see the state taking a stake at all, and we could be talking coupon/call ban.
Two questions i have with this are: 1) will the EC allow this kind of SPV bailout structure for the bad bank, it sounds very sneaky; and 2) what happens to the group structure vis a vis Groep, bank and Insurance, especially if insurance is sold and any state equity stake grows as a result?
On the other hand, if, just if, this is a positive news story and if, just if it's a purely private solution, could the Dutch and SNS tell Darth Aluminia to go and stick his light sabre right up his evil death star? - after all the Dutch do wear big boy pants at the European table. Even if not, given the quantum (quite small to be honest) and still likely pro-EC break-up plan of bank and insurance it could be that just a short-term call/cpn ban is imposed.... in which case one should BUY the heck out of the bonds.
Massive massive caution required still. This sounds positive but as one client noted sagaciously: "the devil is in the detail and this is still a pig" and that made me think about the Gadarene swine. Beware yet of cliffs.
All counters and thoughts welcome as ever
ta
tom
solovaloreaggiunto
Forumer storico
Dutch banking and insurance company SNS Reaal NV (SR.AE) has found private investors willing to provide a capital boost of around 1.9 billion euros ($2.69 billion) in a bid to fend off nationalization, broadcaster RTLZ reported Wednesday.
SNS Reaal has reached agreement with private investors on a capital injection of EUR1.5 billion, the broadcaster reports on its website, citing sources in the financial sector. The three biggest Dutch banks by assets--ING Groep NV (ING), Rabobank Group and ABN Amro Bank NV--are willing to invest around EUR400 million, RTLZ said.
The investment still needs approval from the European Union's antitrust regulators, RTLZ adds.
SNS Reaal, ING and ABN Amro declined to comment on the report. Rabobank wasn't immediately available for comment.
SNS Reaal on Monday confirmed that it is in talks with private investors in a bid to raise capital and avoid another unpopular government bailout.
The Utrecht-based company is struggling with heavy losses on commercial-property loans, which have squeezed its capital position and ability to repay a EUR750 million-euro government bailout received during the 2008 financial crisis.
SNS Reaal has reached agreement with private investors on a capital injection of EUR1.5 billion, the broadcaster reports on its website, citing sources in the financial sector. The three biggest Dutch banks by assets--ING Groep NV (ING), Rabobank Group and ABN Amro Bank NV--are willing to invest around EUR400 million, RTLZ said.
The investment still needs approval from the European Union's antitrust regulators, RTLZ adds.
SNS Reaal, ING and ABN Amro declined to comment on the report. Rabobank wasn't immediately available for comment.
SNS Reaal on Monday confirmed that it is in talks with private investors in a bid to raise capital and avoid another unpopular government bailout.
The Utrecht-based company is struggling with heavy losses on commercial-property loans, which have squeezed its capital position and ability to repay a EUR750 million-euro government bailout received during the 2008 financial crisis.
Cat XL
Shizuka Minamoto
c è un passaggio interessante nella traduzione dall olandese :
la traduzione è quella che è ...non specificano il perchè "vanno in ansia"
immagino che ci siano collegamenti diretti o indiretti tra SNS e i 3 colossi
Volontario?
Secondo le fonti della paura RTL Z ABN Amro, ING e Rabobank nazionalizzazione di SNS. Ciò significherebbe che di gran lunga la maggior parte delle banche olandesi nelle mani dello Stato. Inoltre, le tre banche del collegamento.
Secondo le banche potrebbe essere un innesco per l'ansia.
Perché ciò che accade quando la nazionalizzazione con le obbligazioni? Piuttosto, essi si risolve così in gran parte se stesso. Ma d'altra parte, non sembra del tutto volontario. Lo Stato vuole garantire che la stessa fattura più bassa possibile è perso. Anche in questo piano, il governo dovrebbe ancora avere per contribuire al salvataggio della SNS
Sarebbe un paese con 3 (ABN, ING parzialmente e SNS) banche su 4 con lo Stato dentro. Aegon aveva ricevuto anche lei aiuti dallo Stato. Non un bel biglietto da visita per il paese. Penso tuttavia che le minacce di ricciolo le abbia fatte svegliare. Voglio che tutto si risolva tra privati senza interventi (penalizzanti) dello Stato. Questa la mia personale ipotesi.
Massimum
Forumer storico
Interessante...lo ricevi tramite una newsletter o l'ha postato da qualche parte?
Wallygo
Forumer storico
....ti quoto non al 100% ma al 1000%
TheLondoner
Forumer storico
ad alto rischio Srlev imho.... quindi a tuo rischio e pericolo XS0616936372.
Discorso diverso per Delta, che dovrebbe essere un emittente sano:XS0821168423
Ultima modifica:
- Stato