Obbligazioni perpetue e subordinate Tutto quello che avreste sempre voluto sapere sulle obbligazioni perpetue... - Cap. 2

[OdioGliAcronimi]

Buongiorno.

Qualcosa deve succedere, i tedeschi dovranno pur assumere una posizione ( purtroppo il segno zodiacale della Merkel, tipicamente ondivago, non ha contribuito finora):

Nel Caos UEM gli Asiatici Vendono anche i titoli Tedeschi | Dall'Estero | Investireoggi.it

Ne ho letto achee un altro su Reuters sullo stesso tema, stesso tono: mi sembrano fare le classiche previsioni auto-avveranti... Chissà se Angelina comincia a sentire il fuoco sotto quella parte del corpo che il Berlusca sosteneva lei avesse troppo grossa...

 

[OdioGliAcronimi]

ottimo, ma mi interesserebbe sapere come gestisci l'operatività di cui sopra...confesso che aldilà di semplici transazioni, i sopracitati strumenti per me non sono avvezzi
se ti va di spiegarmi come funzionano ti ringrazio

Basta avere un conto abilitato a operare sui derivati, e poi su eurex trovi tutti gli interest rate futures tra cui BTP, Bund, Bobl, Schatz etc. Se cerchi Eurex su Google trovi tutto.

Attenzione che sono pezzi da 100.000 (136 per il Bund), anche se si negoziano a margini. Io uso Interactive Broblkers anche perchè usa una clearighouse interna, che non ha alzato i margini come da recenti annunci di alcune Europee, ma IWBank va bene lo stesso. Contattami in privato se servono altri dettagli.

Ciao!

 

[camaleonte]

Non so se qualcuno abbiano notato come siano in peggioramento alcune stime sull'andamento del PIL italiano nel prossimo anno, con Fugnoli che nel suo commento settimanale indica un possibile -1% e la stima di Schroders di un -3% sul 2011.

Qualcuno di voi professionals ha disponibili report di sorta e se la sente di commentare sull'effetto che uno scenario di questo tipo avrebbe sui corsi dei tds, sulle sofferenze bancarie e, di rimando, sulle quotazioni dei sub bancari ed assicurativi italiani ?

Peraltro UGF, parlando di compagnie assicurative, a scadenza 2017 è prossima ad un rendimento del 9% lordo sui propri senior unsecured, tipo il 5% 01/2017 XS0472940617...

http://www.ilsole24ore.com/art/fina...dita-interbancario-104452.shtml?uuid=AaB6lqME


Torno a ripetere, secondo la mia logica che rifiuta il catastrofismo ma non può negare l'evidenza, qualcosa deve succedere, perchè se continua
di questo passo, te lo faccio io il report: depressione!

Tra l'altro qualche giorno fa l'Istat rese noto che, il 46% delle famiglie
italiane ha visto peggiorare le proprie condizioni economiche rispetto agli ultimi tre anni. In queste condizioni dove può andare il ns.PIL?

 

[Alessandra73]

si paga con 0.07 di rateo
38 denaro 43 lettera

Grazie 1000 !!!
Cedola arrivata regolarmente !!!

 

[negusneg]

Santander turns up heat on sub debt holders

Wed, Nov 16 2011
By Jean-Marc Poilpre
Nov 16 (Reuters) - Spain's largest bank Santander will modestly boost its capital by getting investors to exchange EUR6.8bn of subordinated debt into new senior notes, but the offer's pricing presents bondholders with an unpalatable choice.
The exchange offer affects a third of its total outstanding Lower Tier 2 stock with call dates ranging from March 2012 until September 2014 but final maturities five years thereafter. In return bondholders will receive new senior debt maturing in December 2015 at a spread of mid-swaps plus 150bp.
Analysts at Societe Generale, however, pointed out that Santander has comparable senior unsecured bonds currently yielding mid-swaps plus 400bp.
Banks often feel under pressure to redeem subordinated debt at call dates because of market convention, despite there being no contractual obligation to do so and it currently being uneconomic too.
Santander said the exchange offer will "effectively manage the Group's outstanding liabilities, taking into consideration prevailing market conditions."
It also stressed that any decision by the Group on the exercise of early redemption calls of hybrid capital instruments will be adopted based on the economic impact of such early redemption, regulatory requirements and prevailing market conditions.
The implication is clear, according to credit strategists at ING, who said: "Any holders expecting Santander to follow this exchange transaction with a scheduled par call will be disappointed."
Investors refusing Santander's offer could be left with less liquid securities that they had expected would redeem at par in the coming three years.
Deutsche Bank famously opted not to redeem its euro Lower Tier 2 institutional deal in December 2008, which at the time stunned many market participants.

LOSS CRYSTALLIZATION
Despite that precedent, some analysts argue that certain investors would be unwilling to crystallize mark-to-market losses by exchanging.
While BAML strategists estimated that the exchange prices for the LT2 bonds were about 4 to 5 points above market levels on Tuesday before the announcement, "the new 2015 senior bonds look to yield below market rates".
One banker not involved in the deal said that the conversion price is one thing, but bondholders will have to take into account the fact that the new bonds will most likely trade down to adjust to the existing debt of Santander. In his view, the premium offered to existing LT2 debt holders is negative.
The exchange offer also reflects guidance from the Basel committee in October on "expectations of calls", stating that if a bank were to call a capital instrument and replace it with an instrument that is more costly (e.g. has a higher credit spread) this might create an expectation that the bank will exercise calls on its other capital instruments.
On paper the transaction could allow the Spanish bank to make a gain of up to EUR650m, although the real purpose of the exchange is quite different - managing its upcoming sub debt redemptions and offering an exit route to bondholders in the likelihood it decides to not redeem.
At the same time, participants believe that Santander is seizing the chance to make a broader announcement to the market: that calls will be exercised in the future with parsimony.
The exchange offer gives bondholders the opportunity to tender nine series of Lower Tier 2 securities maturing between 2017 and 2019 and switch into more senior, higher rated debt (double A as opposed to single A+).
Some bondholders felt the premium offered could have been higher, but bankers close to the transaction believe that the exercise is broadly neutral, relative to the secondary market levels yesterday, and definitely positive compared to the levels that can be expected if the existing LT2 debt is not called. "In any case, the exchange offer is optional," a banker said.
Bondholders have until November 23 to tender their securities via dealer managers Morgan Stanley and Santander. These bonds are typically held by traditional fixed-income funds but also by hedge funds and a few retail investors.
Bondholders will receive newly-issued euro- and sterling denominated four-year fixed-rate senior notes.
The outstanding LT2s are being bought back below face value, meaning that Santander could make a capital gain (subject to tax adjustments) of as much as EUR650m if the take-up rate reaches 100%.
For instance the 4.250% notes maturing in May 2018 and a scheduled call in May 2013, are being repurchased at 87%, while the 6.5% notes due in July 2019 with a call date of July 2014 are being bought back at 99.5%. However, given the size of Santander's balance sheet, the gain is not meaningful, a banker noted. (Reporting by Jean-Marc Poilpre,)

 

[negusneg]

Qualcuno ha idea di quali siano le emissioni di SocGen cui si fa riferimento nell'articolo qui sotto?

?300bn Realistic or Headline Grabbing? | TwentyFour Asset Management

€300bn Realistic or Headline Grabbing?

By: Eoin Walsh
Posted: 18 Oct 2011


Despite the uncertainty surrounding what the capital ratio requirements might be under the new stress tests, bank liability management exercises continued yesterday with BPCE announcing a tender offer for up to 53% of four of their outstanding Tier 1 bonds. The voluntary tender covers bonds with a face value of €3.3bn and has been received as very investor friendly, with the tender price being up to 15 points above the Friday closing price. The offer is solely targeting the step-up Tier 1 bonds (ie the retail targeted non-step deals are not part of this tender process) and at a tender price of 65% (for three of the deals) and 82.5% (for the higher coupon deal) is clearly very beneficial to BPCE as the capital gain of €630m will directly benefit the Core Tier 1 ratio, a key focus for the regulators as they look to recapitalize the banks.
Unsurprisingly the move was welcomed by the markets. The tender exercise offers liquidity & a generous premium to investors and capital benefits to BPCE; a rare win-win all-round. This will no doubt provide encouragement to other institutions with subordinated bonds trading at a large discount to par.
In addition we also saw further bonds being called today; SocGen called two Tier 1 Pref bonds with December ’11 call dates, both previously trading in the low-80’s; and Aviva called €800m of Nov 2021 Lower Tier 2 bond with a November ’11 call date.
We’ve already commented on the stress tests (http://www.twentyfouram.com/blog/recapitalising-europes-banks) and outlined various capital shortfalls depending on the final Core Tier 1 ratio required by the regulators. These numbers were calculated using the “adverse scenario” outlined in the previous EBA stress test and its worth highlighting that this new scenario is probably likely to change; banks are expected to be stressed to a 9% Core Tier 1 ratio (remember under Basel III the initial Core Equity T1 ratio is 4.5% plus an additional 2.5% buffer which needs to be in place by Jan-2019) and Greek government debt is expected to be aggressively haircut. Given these changes we believe the new stress test will not be applying the adverse scenario previously used as this would likely be construed as being too punitive.
It is interesting to note that the vast majority of the capital raise comes from the adverse scenario, not Greek haircuts and not the 9% core tier 1.
Most of the research pieces that have been picked up by the press have been based on this overly punitive scenario and hence the headline grabbing €300bn recaps. We think a figure closer to €100bn is a more likely outcome, while still achieving 9% and a greater Greek haircut of 50%. This is manageable for the strong banks and achieves what is needed, whereas a €300bn figure will only result in more rapid deleveraging and its knock on recessionary effects to the economies.
If €300bn was really a possibility, we doubt that two of the major banks in France would have been calling their capital this week.

 

[Cat XL]

Qualcuno ha idea di quali siano le emissioni di SocGen cui si fa riferimento nell'articolo qui sotto?

?300bn Realistic or Headline Grabbing? | TwentyFour Asset Management

€300bn Realistic or Headline Grabbing?

By: Eoin Walsh
Posted: 18 Oct 2011


Despite the uncertainty surrounding what the capital ratio requirements might be under the new stress tests, bank liability management exercises continued yesterday with BPCE announcing a tender offer for up to 53% of four of their outstanding Tier 1 bonds. The voluntary tender covers bonds with a face value of €3.3bn and has been received as very investor friendly, with the tender price being up to 15 points above the Friday closing price. The offer is solely targeting the step-up Tier 1 bonds (ie the retail targeted non-step deals are not part of this tender process) and at a tender price of 65% (for three of the deals) and 82.5% (for the higher coupon deal) is clearly very beneficial to BPCE as the capital gain of €630m will directly benefit the Core Tier 1 ratio, a key focus for the regulators as they look to recapitalize the banks.
Unsurprisingly the move was welcomed by the markets. The tender exercise offers liquidity & a generous premium to investors and capital benefits to BPCE; a rare win-win all-round. This will no doubt provide encouragement to other institutions with subordinated bonds trading at a large discount to par.
In addition we also saw further bonds being called today; SocGen called two Tier 1 Pref bonds with December ’11 call dates, both previously trading in the low-80’s; and Aviva called €800m of Nov 2021 Lower Tier 2 bond with a November ’11 call date.
We’ve already commented on the stress tests (http://www.twentyfouram.com/blog/recapitalising-europes-banks) and outlined various capital shortfalls depending on the final Core Tier 1 ratio required by the regulators. These numbers were calculated using the “adverse scenario” outlined in the previous EBA stress test and its worth highlighting that this new scenario is probably likely to change; banks are expected to be stressed to a 9% Core Tier 1 ratio (remember under Basel III the initial Core Equity T1 ratio is 4.5% plus an additional 2.5% buffer which needs to be in place by Jan-2019) and Greek government debt is expected to be aggressively haircut. Given these changes we believe the new stress test will not be applying the adverse scenario previously used as this would likely be construed as being too punitive.
It is interesting to note that the vast majority of the capital raise comes from the adverse scenario, not Greek haircuts and not the 9% core tier 1.
Most of the research pieces that have been picked up by the press have been based on this overly punitive scenario and hence the headline grabbing €300bn recaps. We think a figure closer to €100bn is a more likely outcome, while still achieving 9% and a greater Greek haircut of 50%. This is manageable for the strong banks and achieves what is needed, whereas a €300bn figure will only result in more rapid deleveraging and its knock on recessionary effects to the economies.
If €300bn was really a possibility, we doubt that two of the major banks in France would have been calling their capital this week.

Allegato il furto che Sogen vorrebbe perpetrare.

 

[negusneg]

Allegato il furto che Sogen vorrebbe perpetrare.

In realtà mi riferivo ai due bond con call dicembre 2011 che SG avrebbe intenzione di richiamare, non ho trovato niente in rete...

 

[bosmeld]

Non so se qualcuno abbiano notato come siano in peggioramento alcune stime sull'andamento del PIL italiano nel prossimo anno, con Fugnoli che nel suo commento settimanale indica un possibile -1% e la stima di Schroders di un -3% sul 2011.

Qualcuno di voi professionals ha disponibili report di sorta e se la sente di commentare sull'effetto che uno scenario di questo tipo avrebbe sui corsi dei tds, sulle sofferenze bancarie e, di rimando, sulle quotazioni dei sub bancari ed assicurativi italiani ?

Peraltro UGF, parlando di compagnie assicurative, a scadenza 2017 è prossima ad un rendimento del 9% lordo sui propri senior unsecured, tipo il 5% 01/2017 XS0472940617...

qui bisogna sicuramente approfondire.

stavo notando questa cosa anche io


più passa il tempo, e più viene rivisto nelle varie ricerca a ribasso il pil italiano.


praticamente tutti ormai si aspettano un -1% di pil per il 2012 (io penso peggio...)



lunedì cerco un po di materiale al riguardo. c'è un analisi di bnp molto interessante con 2 diversi basi.

la prima con un qe europeo.

e la seconda senza qe (che porta a recessione in molti stati ue....)


molte banche si aspettano un QE europeo, speriamo che cià si avveri...




con pil negativo, e costo raccolta in forte aumento. peraltro diverse banche italiane se nonla gran parte di loro potrebbero tranquillamente chiudere il 2012 in negativo.


le banche italiane fanno la maggior parte degli utili con il margine di interesse.

differenza tra costo finanziamento banca, e tasso a cui prestano i soldini.


parlano con piccole realtà già adesso mi dicono che questo margine si sta assottiglaindo.

i costi delle banche stanno crescendo, ma non crescono altrettanto velocemente i costi a cui le banche prestano denari. basta pensare ai mutui che hanno concesso a 20-30 anni a tassi ridicoli, e che ora se continua questa situazione gli portano a perdere soldi.


effettivamente riflettendo devo dire che la situazione è molto brutta. è incredibile la velocità con cui questa crisi si sta trasferendo all'economia reali, le banche stanno chiudendo i rubinetti. praticamente stanno revocando i piccoli fidi e scoperti di conto correnti a tutti.

i finanziamenti alle imprese diventano molto onerosi,e i mutui carissimi.

che cosa ci si può aspettare?


1 recessione

2 calo netto degli immobili
3 diminuzione generale della ricchezza.



conclusione: mi sa che Gaudente ha fatto la meglio cosa ad andarsene in thai

 

[riccio43]

per Bos ti ho risposto MP